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Title: Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Abstract

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [3]; ORCiD logo [6]
  1. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Science and Society
  2. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Earth & Sustainability
  3. Carnegie Inst. for Science, Stanford, CA (United States). Dept. of Global Ecology
  4. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO (United States)
  5. California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
  6. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1651280
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; N4-TE14-0047-NNH14ZDA001N-TE; 13-CARBON13_2-0036-NNH13ZDA001N-CARBON; 14-CMAC14-NNX16AB19G; NNX10AG01A; NNH10AN681
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; biogeochemistry; climate sciences; ecology; environmental sciences

Citation Formats

Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Michalak, Anna M., Schaefer, Kevin, Fisher, Joshua B., Fang, Yuanyuan, and Wei, Yaxing. Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-66103-9.
Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Michalak, Anna M., Schaefer, Kevin, Fisher, Joshua B., Fang, Yuanyuan, & Wei, Yaxing. Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66103-9
Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Michalak, Anna M., Schaefer, Kevin, Fisher, Joshua B., Fang, Yuanyuan, and Wei, Yaxing. Wed . "Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66103-9. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1651280.
@article{osti_1651280,
title = {Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century},
author = {Schwalm, Christopher R. and Huntzinger, Deborah N. and Michalak, Anna M. and Schaefer, Kevin and Fisher, Joshua B. and Fang, Yuanyuan and Wei, Yaxing},
abstractNote = {Terrestrial vegetation removes CO2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-66103-9},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Wed Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}

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