Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Zhou, Nan; Khanna, Nina; Feng, Wei; Ke, Jing; Levine, Mark

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6

Title: Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Journal Article · 07 October 2018 · Nature Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0253-6 · OSTI ID:1650036

Zhou, Nan ^[1]; Khanna, Nina ^[1];

^[1]; Ke, Jing ^[1]; Levine, Mark ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area, Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, China Energy Group

As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, here we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO₂ emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO₂ peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1650036

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Journal Name: Nature Energy Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 3; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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