Title: Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach

Abstract

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) appears to have sales momentum in major personal vehicle markets but are still at the early market stage. Opportunities to accelerate PEV adoption can be discovered through comprehensive total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. Understanding the cost-effective electric ranges of PEVs for consumers, manufacturers, and the society is critical for any discussion of PEV mass markets. This study expanded the traditional TCO approach by (1) fully considering heterogeneous consumer driving patterns, (2) quantifying the charging inconvenience and range anxiety cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and (3) monetizing both tangible and intangible PEV policies. Uncertainties were handled through Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that BEVs with an electric range of 250–350 km have the lowest TCO in cities with government-enacted purchase limitations, and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) have the lowest TCO in cities without purchase limitations, even when considering PEV subsidies. The lowest TCO for some consumer groups is obtained by BEVs with an electric range of 400–450 km, especially in northern China, where the weather is colder. The cost-effective all-electric range for BEVs in each city in 2025 will decrease due to improved battery performance in cold environments and an expanded charging infrastructure. Finally,more » based on TCO, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are currently more suitable for drivers with a high average daily mileage or a large mileage variance. However, by 2025, BEVs with a long driving range may become a more cost-effective choice for these drivers.« less

Authors:

Hao, Xu ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[2]; Wang, Hewu ^[1]; Ou, Shiqi ^[2]; Ouyang, Minggao ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). State Key Lab. of Automotive Safety and Energy
2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Publication Date:

Thu Jul 02 00:00:00 EDT 2020

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1649040

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1637253

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Applied Energy

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 275; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:

Elsevier

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Total ownership cost; Monte Carlo simulation; Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV); Consumer heterogeneity; Range anxiety