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Title: Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Abstract

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. In combination, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [13]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [14]; ORCiD logo [15]; ORCiD logo [16]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [18] more »;  [19]; ORCiD logo [20]; ORCiD logo [21] « less
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. US Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Front Royal, VA (United States); Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (Panama)
  4. Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  6. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  7. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
  8. Boston Univ., MA (United States)
  9. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf (Switzerland)
  10. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  11. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  12. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)
  13. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  14. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  15. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  16. Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom)
  17. Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, (Austria); Technical Univ. of Munich (Germany)
  18. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
  19. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  20. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  21. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; McIntire-Stennis; USGS; Joint Fire Science Program; Vilas Trust; sDiv; Synthesis Centre of iDiv; European Research Council (ERC); Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1639166
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1649093; OSTI ID: 1657138
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-144291; LA-UR-20-23882
Journal ID: ISSN 0036-8075
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; LFR-18-542511; 758873; AC05-00OR22725; 89233218CNA000001
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 368; Journal Issue: 6494; Conference: Disturbance and Vegetation Dynamics in Earth System Models Workshop, Gaithersburg, MD (United States), 15-16 Mar 2018; Journal ID: ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher:
AAAS
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Biological Science; Earth Sciences; forest, insect, vegetation

Citation Formats

McDowell, Nate G., Allen, Craig D., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Aukema, Brian H., Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Chini, Louise M., Clark, James S., Dietze, Michael, Grossiord, Charlotte, Hanbury-Brown, Adam, Hurtt, George C., Jackson, Robert B., Johnson, Daniel J., Kueppers, Lara, Lichstein, Jeremy W., Ogle, Kiona, Poulter, Benjamin, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Seidl, Rupert, Turner, Monica G., Uriarte, Maria, Walker, Anthony P., and Xu, Chonggang. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9463.
McDowell, Nate G., Allen, Craig D., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Aukema, Brian H., Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Chini, Louise M., Clark, James S., Dietze, Michael, Grossiord, Charlotte, Hanbury-Brown, Adam, Hurtt, George C., Jackson, Robert B., Johnson, Daniel J., Kueppers, Lara, Lichstein, Jeremy W., Ogle, Kiona, Poulter, Benjamin, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Seidl, Rupert, Turner, Monica G., Uriarte, Maria, Walker, Anthony P., & Xu, Chonggang. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9463
McDowell, Nate G., Allen, Craig D., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Aukema, Brian H., Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin, Chini, Louise M., Clark, James S., Dietze, Michael, Grossiord, Charlotte, Hanbury-Brown, Adam, Hurtt, George C., Jackson, Robert B., Johnson, Daniel J., Kueppers, Lara, Lichstein, Jeremy W., Ogle, Kiona, Poulter, Benjamin, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Seidl, Rupert, Turner, Monica G., Uriarte, Maria, Walker, Anthony P., and Xu, Chonggang. Fri . "Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world". United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9463. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1639166.
@article{osti_1639166,
title = {Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world},
author = {McDowell, Nate G. and Allen, Craig D. and Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. and Aukema, Brian H. and Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin and Chini, Louise M. and Clark, James S. and Dietze, Michael and Grossiord, Charlotte and Hanbury-Brown, Adam and Hurtt, George C. and Jackson, Robert B. and Johnson, Daniel J. and Kueppers, Lara and Lichstein, Jeremy W. and Ogle, Kiona and Poulter, Benjamin and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Seidl, Rupert and Turner, Monica G. and Uriarte, Maria and Walker, Anthony P. and Xu, Chonggang},
abstractNote = {Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. In combination, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9463},
journal = {Science},
number = 6494,
volume = 368,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {5}
}

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Delayed tree mortality, bark beetle activity, and regeneration dynamics five years following the Wallow Fire, Arizona, USA: Assessing trajectories towards resiliency
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Greening of the land surface in the world’s cold regions consistent with recent warming
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Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought
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Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space
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Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks
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Important role of forest disturbances in the global biomass turnover and carbon sinks
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LONG-TERM CO 2 ENRICHMENT OF A FOREST ECOSYSTEM: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOREST REGENERATION AND SUCCESSION
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Large-scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests
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Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and precipitation
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Woody plant encroachment of grasslands: a comparison of terrestrial and wetland settings
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Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink
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Drought predisposes piñon-juniper woodlands to insect attacks and mortality
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Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient
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Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation
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Warming combined with more extreme precipitation regimes modifies the water sources used by trees
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On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene
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Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought
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Natural disturbance and human land use as determinants of tropical forest dynamics: results from a forest simulator
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Review: Wind impacts on plant growth, mechanics and damage
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A theory of pulse dynamics and disturbance in ecology
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Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome
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Paradigms in Eastern Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Population Ecology: A Century of Debate
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Central European hardwood trees in a high-CO 2 future: synthesis of an 8-year forest canopy CO 2 enrichment project
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Canopy mortality has doubled in Europe’s temperate forests over the last three decades
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Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of stabilizing processes
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Efficacy of tree defense physiology varies with bark beetle population density: a basis for positive feedback in eruptive species
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Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
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Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying
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Mapping forest canopy height globally with spaceborne lidar
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