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Title: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract

The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availabilitymore » of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9];  [10]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Univ. Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  3. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA (United States)
  4. Norwegian Polar Inst., Tromso (Norway); Univ. of Tromso (Norway)
  5. Univ. Grenoble Alpes (France)
  6. Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands); Univ. Libre, Brussels (Belgium)
  7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  8. California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab. (JPL)
  9. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography
  10. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (UK)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR); National Science Foundation (NSF); Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; Norwegian Research Council; North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC); Fondation Albert II de Monaco; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1634959
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-19-26914
Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; ANR-15-CE01-0015; ANR15-CE01-0005-01; 1744792; 1756272; 1916566; 024.002.001; 231549; 280727; NE/N018486/1
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
The Cryosphere (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online); Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; earth sciences; multi-model; model evaluation; climate; future sea level rise

Citation Formats

Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.5194/tc-14-855-2020.
Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, & Bracegirdle, Thomas J. CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Fri . "CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1634959.
@article{osti_1634959,
title = {CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica},
author = {Barthel, Alice and Agosta, Cécile and Little, Christopher M. and Hattermann, Tore and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Goelzer, Heiko and Nowicki, Sophie and Seroussi, Helene and Straneo, Fiammetta and Bracegirdle, Thomas J.},
abstractNote = {The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-855-2020},
journal = {The Cryosphere (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {3}
}

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