Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050
Abstract
We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplificationmore »
- Authors:
-
[2];
[3];
[2];
[2];
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Istanbul Technical Univ. (Turkey)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
- Istanbul Technical Univ. (Turkey); National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Istanbul Technical Univ. (Turkey)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1630513
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; multivariate extremes; population exposure; detection and attribution; weather and climate; time of emergence; climate extremes index
Citation Formats
Batibeniz, Fulden, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Key, Kesondra, Evans, Katherine, Turuncoglu, Ufuk, and Onol, Baris. Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019EF001421.
Batibeniz, Fulden, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Key, Kesondra, Evans, Katherine, Turuncoglu, Ufuk, & Onol, Baris. Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001421
Batibeniz, Fulden, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Diffenbaugh, Noah, Key, Kesondra, Evans, Katherine, Turuncoglu, Ufuk, and Onol, Baris. Mon .
"Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001421. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1630513.
@article{osti_1630513,
title = {Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050},
author = {Batibeniz, Fulden and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Diffenbaugh, Noah and Key, Kesondra and Evans, Katherine and Turuncoglu, Ufuk and Onol, Baris},
abstractNote = {We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001421},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 4,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Mon Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: a) Time of emergence of the state when future changes in the exposure to extremes is permanently greater than the baseline variability. Colors represent the percent of counties that reach a permanent state of emergence. The figure includes only those extremes that exhibit such a level of change.more »
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