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Title: Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape

Abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85–1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largelymore » consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Ocean Associates, under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States of America, South Fork Research, Inc, North Bend, WA, United States of America
  2. South Fork Research, Inc, North Bend, WA, United States of America
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1630441
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
PeerJ
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: PeerJ Journal Volume: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2167-8359
Publisher:
PeerJ
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Siegel, Jared E., and Volk, Carol J. Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.7717/peerj.7892.
Siegel, Jared E., & Volk, Carol J. Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7892
Siegel, Jared E., and Volk, Carol J. Tue . "Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7892.
@article{osti_1630441,
title = {Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape},
author = {Siegel, Jared E. and Volk, Carol J.},
abstractNote = {Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85–1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largely consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.},
doi = {10.7717/peerj.7892},
journal = {PeerJ},
number = ,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {11}
}

Journal Article:
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7892

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