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Title: Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Abstract

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology
  2. Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Sept. of Plant Ecology and Evolution
  3. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology
  4. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States). ForestGEO
  5. Bush Estate, Midlothian (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
  6. Univ. of Puerto Rico, San Juan (Puerto Rico). Dept. of Environmental Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments, Tropics (NGEE-Tropics)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
OSTI Identifier:
1629982
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Hall, Jazlynn, Muscarella, Robert, Quebbeman, Andrew, Arellano, Gabriel, Thompson, Jill, Zimmerman, Jess K., and Uriarte, María. Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2.
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Hall, Jazlynn, Muscarella, Robert, Quebbeman, Andrew, Arellano, Gabriel, Thompson, Jill, Zimmerman, Jess K., & Uriarte, María. Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2
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Hall, Jazlynn, Muscarella, Robert, Quebbeman, Andrew, Arellano, Gabriel, Thompson, Jill, Zimmerman, Jess K., and Uriarte, María. Mon . "Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1629982.
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@article{osti_1629982,
title = {Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds},
author = {Hall, Jazlynn and Muscarella, Robert and Quebbeman, Andrew and Arellano, Gabriel and Thompson, Jill and Zimmerman, Jess K. and Uriarte, María},
abstractNote = {Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2
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