Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.; Touma, Danielle; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau3487

Title: Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions

Journal Article · 28 November 2018 · Science Advances

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau3487 · OSTI ID:1626001

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Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Woods Inst. for the Environment; DOE/OSTI
Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Statistics; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain). UC3M-BS Inst. of Financial Big Data
Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Statistics
Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Woods Inst. for the Environment

We present a framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal co-occurrence of climate stresses in a nonstationary climate. We find that, globally, anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961–1990 baseline). In addition, the joint probability that key crop and pasture regions simultaneously experience severely warm conditions in conjunction with dry years has also increased, including high statistical confidence that human influence has increased the probability of previously unprecedented co-occurring combinations. Further, we find that ambitious emissions mitigation, such as that in the United Nations Paris Agreement, substantially curbs increases in the probability that extremely hot years co-occur with low precipitation simultaneously in multiple regions. Our methodology can be applied to other climate variables, providing critical insight for a number of sectors that are accustomed to deploying resources based on historical probabilities.

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Research Organization:: Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0010687

OSTI ID:: 1626001

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 4; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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