Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate
Abstract
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.
- Authors:
-
[2]
- Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography. Dept. of Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography
- Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Center for Climatic Research
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1625965
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FG02-00ER41132
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2375-2548
- Publisher:
- AAAS
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Science & Technology - Other Topics
Citation Formats
Liu, Wei, Xie, Shang-Ping, Liu, Zhengyu, and Zhu, Jiang. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666.
Liu, Wei, Xie, Shang-Ping, Liu, Zhengyu, & Zhu, Jiang. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666
Liu, Wei, Xie, Shang-Ping, Liu, Zhengyu, and Zhu, Jiang. Sun .
"Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate". United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1625965.
@article{osti_1625965,
title = {Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate},
author = {Liu, Wei and Xie, Shang-Ping and Liu, Zhengyu and Zhu, Jiang},
abstractNote = {Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601666},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = 1,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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Fig. 1: AMOC stability in modern climate and AMOC response under global warming. (A) AMOC stability diagram where M$^{*}_{ovS}$ and M$^{*}_{ov}$ are the AMOC stability indicators defined in Materials and Methods. The indicator values in modern climate are shown in solid circles for reanalysis data [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climaticimore »
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