Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America

Feron, S.; Cordero, R. R.; Damiani, A.; Llanillo, P. J.; Jorquera, J.; Sepulveda, E.; Asencio, V.; Laroze, D.; Labbe, F.; Carrasco, J.; Torres, G.

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4

Title: Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America

Journal Article · 03 June 2019 · Scientific Reports

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4 · OSTI ID:1624472

Feron, S. ^[1]; Cordero, R. R. ^[2]; Damiani, A. ^[3]; Llanillo, P. J. ^[2]; Jorquera, J. ^[2]; Sepulveda, E. ^[2]; Asencio, V. ^[2];

^[4]; Labbe, F. ^[5]; Carrasco, J. ^[6]; Torres, G. ^[7]

Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile); Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile)
Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile); Chiba Univ. (Japan). Center for Environmental Remote Sensing
Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica (Chile)
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso (Chile)
Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas (Chile)
Direccion Meteorologica de Chile, Santiago (Chile)

Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December–January–February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5–10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury.

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Research Organization:: Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0010687

OSTI ID:: 1624472

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia Rana, Arun; Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellström, Erik Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05146-0	journal	January 2020

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