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Title: Neutral modes of surface temperature and the optimal ocean thermal forcing for global cooling

Journal Article · · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Science and Global Change Div. (ASGC)
  2. Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao (China). Qingdao National Lab. for Marine Science and Technology, Physical Oceanography Lab. (CIMST)
  3. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)

Inquiry into the climate response to external forcing perturbations has been at the center stage of climate dynamics. But the understanding of two important aspects of climate change response—nonlinearity and regionality—has progressed slowly, owing partly to the lack of a multivariate framework for quantifying forcing-response relationships. Here we develop a Green’s function approach to retrieve the linear response functions (LRFs) for both the linear and nonlinear response in a state-of-the-art climate model, whereby the most excitable temperature modes, aka the neutral modes, can be identified for the current Earth climate. The derived leading nonlinear mode is characterized by a polar-amplified global cooling pattern, unveiling an intrinsic propensity of the modern climate towards cooling. Moreover, the Maritime Continents and the eastern Australian coast are identified as locations where forcing perturbations can more effectively excite global cooling. In a solar engineering thought experiment in which the ocean heat flux is reduced everywhere, the LRF matrices skillfully predict the pattern of the temperature response simulated by the climate model. The framework developed herein can be utilized to determine the optimal forcing patterns to inform solar geoengineering experiments and to interpret regional climate response and feedback in general.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); National Key Research and Development Program of China; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; 41906002; 9185821; 018YFA0605702
OSTI ID:
1619823
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1638485
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-144325
Journal Information:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 3, Issue 1; ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher:
Springer NatureCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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