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Title: The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability

Abstract

Abstract Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1619688
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Scientific Reports Journal Volume: 10 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Zhao, Yingying, and Di Lorenzo, Emanuele. The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability. United Kingdom: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59253-3.
Zhao, Yingying, & Di Lorenzo, Emanuele. The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59253-3
Zhao, Yingying, and Di Lorenzo, Emanuele. Thu . "The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59253-3.
@article{osti_1619688,
title = {The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability},
author = {Zhao, Yingying and Di Lorenzo, Emanuele},
abstractNote = {Abstract Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-59253-3},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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