The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law
Abstract
Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1619164
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 378; Journal Issue: 2166; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
- Publisher:
- The Royal Society Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; computing; Moore's Law; lithography; high-performance computing; post-CMOS; microelectronics
Citation Formats
Shalf, John. The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0061.
Shalf, John. The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law. United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0061
Shalf, John. Mon .
"The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law". United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0061. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1619164.
@article{osti_1619164,
title = {The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law},
author = {Shalf, John},
abstractNote = {Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2019.0061},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2166,
volume = 378,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Exascale Computing Trends: Adjusting to the "New Normal"' for Computer Architecture
journal, November 2013
- Kogge, Peter; Shalf, John
- Computing in Science & Engineering, Vol. 15, Issue 6
High-Bandwidth Density and Low-Power Optical MCM Using Waveguide-Integrated Organic Substrate
journal, March 2014
- Tokunari, Masao; Hsu, Hsiang-Han; Toriyama, Kazushige
- Journal of Lightwave Technology, Vol. 32, Issue 6
Limit to the Bit-Rate Capacity of Electrical Interconnects from the Aspect Ratio of the System Architecture
journal, February 1997
- Miller, D. A. B.; Ozaktas, H. M.
- Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing, Vol. 41, Issue 1
Overview of Beyond-CMOS Devices and a Uniform Methodology for Their Benchmarking
journal, December 2013
- Nikonov, Dmitri E.; Young, Ian A.
- Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 101, Issue 12
Trends in Data Locality Abstractions for HPC Systems
journal, October 2017
- Unat, Didem; Dubey, Anshu; Hoefler, Torsten
- IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems, Vol. 28, Issue 10
Facebook’s Data Center Infrastructure: Open Compute, Disaggregated Rack, and Beyond
conference, January 2015
- Taylor, Jason
- Optical Fiber Communication Conference
Plasticine: A Reconfigurable Accelerator for Parallel Patterns
journal, May 2018
- Prabhakar, Raghu; Zhang, Yaqi; Koeplinger, David
- IEEE Micro, Vol. 38, Issue 3
Computing beyond Moore's Law
journal, December 2015
- Shalf, John M.; Leland, Robert
- Computer, Vol. 48, Issue 12
Limits on fundamental limits to computation
journal, August 2014
- Markov, Igor L.
- Nature, Vol. 512, Issue 7513
Rationale and challenges for optical interconnects to electronic chips
journal, June 2000
- Miller, D. A. B.
- Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 88, Issue 6, p. 728-749
Nervana systems: Turning neural networks into a service [Resources_Startups]
journal, June 2016
- Hsu, Jeremy
- IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 53, Issue 6
MDGRAPE-4: a special-purpose computer system for molecular dynamics simulations
journal, August 2014
- Ohmura, Itta; Morimoto, Gentaro; Ohno, Yousuke
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2021
Disaggregated Computing. An Evaluation of Current Trends for Datacentres
journal, January 2017
- Meyer, Hugo; Sancho, José Carlos; Quiroga, Josue V.
- Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 108