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Title: The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law

Abstract

Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1619164
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 378; Journal Issue: 2166; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; computing; Moore's Law; lithography; high-performance computing; post-CMOS; microelectronics

Citation Formats

Shalf, John. The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0061.
Shalf, John. The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law. United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0061.
Shalf, John. Mon . "The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law". United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0061.
@article{osti_1619164,
title = {The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law},
author = {Shalf, John},
abstractNote = {Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2019.0061},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2166,
volume = 378,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}

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