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Title: Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification

Abstract

Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. As such, this study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1619014
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1618014; OSTI ID: 1774529
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
eTransportation
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 4; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2590-1168
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Hybrid electric vehicle; Micro hybridization; Fuel economy; Vehicle market penetration; Discrete choice model

Citation Formats

Ou, Shiqi, Gohlke, David, and Lin, Zhenhong. Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etran.2020.100058.
Ou, Shiqi, Gohlke, David, & Lin, Zhenhong. Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etran.2020.100058
Ou, Shiqi, Gohlke, David, and Lin, Zhenhong. Thu . "Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etran.2020.100058. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1619014.
@article{osti_1619014,
title = {Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification},
author = {Ou, Shiqi and Gohlke, David and Lin, Zhenhong},
abstractNote = {Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. As such, this study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.},
doi = {10.1016/j.etran.2020.100058},
journal = {eTransportation},
number = C,
volume = 4,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {4}
}

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