DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions

Abstract

Abstract Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) and ash-throated flycatcher ( Myiarchus cinerascens ), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk formore » the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1618984
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1571596
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-18-30750
Journal ID: ISSN 0028-1042; 54; PII: 1650
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396; 89233218CNA000001
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Naturwissenschaften
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Naturwissenschaften Journal Volume: 106 Journal Issue: 9-10; Journal ID: ISSN 0028-1042
Publisher:
Springer Science + Business Media
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English
Subject:
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; Phenology; Climate change; Birds; New Mexico; Clutch size; Nesting elevation

Citation Formats

Wysner, Tyler E., Bartlow, Andrew W., Hathcock, Charles D., and Fair, Jeanne M. Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions. Germany: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1007/s00114-019-1650-9.
Wysner, Tyler E., Bartlow, Andrew W., Hathcock, Charles D., & Fair, Jeanne M. Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions. Germany. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-019-1650-9
Wysner, Tyler E., Bartlow, Andrew W., Hathcock, Charles D., and Fair, Jeanne M. Fri . "Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions". Germany. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-019-1650-9.
@article{osti_1618984,
title = {Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions},
author = {Wysner, Tyler E. and Bartlow, Andrew W. and Hathcock, Charles D. and Fair, Jeanne M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) and ash-throated flycatcher ( Myiarchus cinerascens ), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk for the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.},
doi = {10.1007/s00114-019-1650-9},
journal = {Naturwissenschaften},
number = 9-10,
volume = 106,
place = {Germany},
year = {Fri Oct 11 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Fri Oct 11 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-019-1650-9

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: Sample sizes (n), mean annual hatch date (Julian date), and standard deviation (SD) per year for western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and ash-throated flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) nests sampled on the Pajarito Plateau in northern NM, USA

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates
journal, September 2004


Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
journal, March 2011


Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest
journal, November 2015

  • Cruz-McDonnell, Kirsten K.; Wolf, Blair O.
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13092

Plasticity in laying dates of Canada Geese in response to spring phenology
journal, December 2017

  • Clermont, Jeanne; Réale, Denis; Giroux, Jean-François
  • Ibis, Vol. 160, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1111/ibi.12560

The Significance of Clutch-size
journal, April 1947


Multimodel inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions: Multimodel inference
journal, January 2011


Climate change and evolutionary adaptation
journal, February 2011


The Timing of Birds‘ Breeding Seasons
journal, April 1970


Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming?
journal, May 1999

  • Brown, J. L.; Li, S. -H.; Bhagabati, N.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 96, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.96.10.5565

Prebasic Molt and Molt-Related Movements in Ash-Throated Flycatchers
journal, August 2006


The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary Analysis and Species Accounts
journal, December 2013

  • Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Fallon, Jane E.
  • North American Fauna, Vol. 79
  • DOI: 10.3996/nafa.79.0001

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants
journal, January 2003

  • Root, Terry L.; Price, Jeff T.; Hall, Kimberly R.
  • Nature, Vol. 421, Issue 6918
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature01333

Coloration, Paternity, and Assortative Mating in Western Bluebirds
journal, October 2014

  • Jacobs, Anne C.; Fair, Jeanne M.; Zuk, Marlene
  • Ethology, Vol. 121, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1111/eth.12327

Overstory Tree Mortality in Ponderosa Pine and Spruce-Fir Ecosystems Following a Drought in Northern New Mexico
journal, October 2016

  • Oswald, Brian; Dugan, Sean; Balice, Randy
  • Forests, Vol. 7, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.3390/f7100225

Ecological Effects of Climate Fluctuations
journal, August 2002


Uninformative Parameters and Model Selection Using Akaike's Information Criterion
journal, August 2010


Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
journal, December 2010

  • Williams, A. P.; Allen, C. D.; Millar, C. I.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0914211107

Environmental effects on variation and covariation in reproductive traits of Western Bluebirds
journal, April 1991


Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species' Optimum Elevations
journal, January 2011


Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change: Identifying and understanding refugia
journal, June 2011


Preferred Habitat of Breeding Birds May Be Compromised by Climate Change: Unexpected Effects of an Exceptionally Cold, Wet Spring
journal, September 2013


Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds
journal, August 2005


Breeding phenology and performance for four swallows over 57 years: relationships with temperature and precipitation
journal, April 2018

  • Imlay, Tara L.; Mills Flemming, Joanna; Saldanha, Sarah
  • Ecosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2166

Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough
journal, August 2008

  • Devictor, Vincent; Julliard, Romain; Couvet, Denis
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 275, Issue 1652
  • DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0878

Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana)
journal, January 2000

  • Guinan, Judith A.; Gowaty, Patricia A.; Eltzroth, Elsie K.
  • The Birds of North America Online
  • DOI: 10.2173/bna.510

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions
journal, December 2007


Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula
journal, October 2006


Weather-induced declines in piñon tree condition and response of a declining bird species
journal, November 2017


Stand structure and breeding birds: Implications for restoring ponderosa pine forests: Stand Structure and Avian Communities
journal, July 2013

  • Kalies, Elizabeth L.; Rosenstock, Steven S.
  • The Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 77, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.577

Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?
journal, January 2009


Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient
journal, July 2019


Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts
journal, November 2017

  • Socolar, Jacob B.; Epanchin, Peter N.; Beissinger, Steven R.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 49
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705897114

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States
journal, December 2015

  • Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13154

Adaptive Phenotypic Plasticity in Response to Climate Change in a Wild Bird Population
journal, May 2008


Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change
journal, April 2001


Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents
journal, March 2016


Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming
journal, May 2015

  • McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2641

Nest predation, food, and female age explain seasonal declines in clutch size
journal, September 2011

  • Decker, Karie L.; Conway, Courtney J.; Fontaine, Joseph J.
  • Evolutionary Ecology, Vol. 26, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10682-011-9521-7

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds
journal, November 2009

  • Carey, Cynthia
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 364, Issue 1534
  • DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2009.0182

Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird
journal, December 2005


Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
journal, August 2011


Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations
journal, February 2003

  • Marcel, E. Visser; Adriaensen, Frank; van Balen, Johan H.
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 270, Issue 1513
  • DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2002.2244

The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
journal, August 2012


Avian migration phenology and global climate change
journal, September 2003


Niche Conservatism: Integrating Evolution, Ecology, and Conservation Biology
journal, December 2005


Annual Nesting Productivity in Snow Geese: Prairie Droughts and Arctic Springs
journal, April 1983

  • Davies, J. Chris; Cooke, Fred
  • The Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 47, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.2307/3808501

Selection on Heritable Phenotypic Plasticity in a Wild Bird Population
journal, October 2005


Climate change and fitness components of a migratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region
journal, March 2003


Large–scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier
journal, August 2004

  • Both, Christiaan; Artemyev, Aleksandr V.; Blaauw, Bert
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 271, Issue 1549
  • DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2770

Elevational gradient in clutch size of Red-faced Warblers: Elevational Gradient in Clutch Size
journal, May 2015

  • Dillon, Kristen G.; Conway, Courtney J.
  • Journal of Field Ornithology, Vol. 86, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1111/jofo.12099

Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America
journal, December 1999

  • Dunn, Peter O.; Winkler, David W.
  • Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 266, Issue 1437
  • DOI: 10.1098/rspb.1999.0950

Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community
journal, October 2018

  • Freeman, Benjamin G.; Scholer, Micah N.; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 47
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1804224115

Evolutionary traps and range shifts in a rapidly changing world
journal, June 2016

  • Hale, Robin; Morrongiello, John R.; Swearer, Stephen E.
  • Biology Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0003

Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin
journal, August 1999

  • Bradley, N. L.; Leopold, A. C.; Ross, J.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 96, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.96.17.9701

Divergence of species responses to climate change
journal, May 2017

  • Fei, Songlin; Desprez, Johanna M.; Potter, Kevin M.
  • Science Advances, Vol. 3, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1603055

Nest-box temperature affects clutch size, incubation initiation, and nestling health in great tits
journal, March 2017

  • Bleu, Josefa; Agostini, Simon; Biard, Clotilde
  • Behavioral Ecology, Vol. 28, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1093/beheco/arx039

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?
journal, January 2011


Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird
journal, November 2012


Towards an Integrated Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change
journal, December 2008


Shifting plant phenology in response to global change
journal, July 2007


Niche conservatism as an emerging principle in ecology and conservation biology: Niche conservatism, ecology, and conservation
journal, July 2010


Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species
journal, October 2015


Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.