Will future climate change increase the risk of violating minimum flow and maximum temperature thresholds below dams in the Pacific Northwest?

Jager, Henriette I.; King, Anthony Wayne; Gangrade, Sudershan; Haines, Angelina; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2018.07.001

Title: Will future climate change increase the risk of violating minimum flow and maximum temperature thresholds below dams in the Pacific Northwest?

Journal Article · 29 July 2018 · Climate Risk Management

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.07.001 · OSTI ID:1618157

^[1];

^[1]; Gangrade, Sudershan ^[1]; Haines, Angelina ^[2];

^[1]; Naz, Bibi S. ^[3];

^[1]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
Research Centre Julich, Julich (Germany)

Detecting and avoiding environmental thresholds that lead to catastrophic change in ecological communities is an important goal, and one that is especially challenging to address over broad geographic extents. Here, we conducted a regional-scale climate vulnerability assessment (RCVA) to quantify the risk of violating thermal and minimum-flow thresholds below reservoirs. Our analysis used hybrid (process-based and empirical) models of tailwater temperature and flow driven by 4-km downscaled CMIP5 climate projections. Downscaling employed a combination of process-based models, quantile mapping, and a non-linear ‘reservoir’ transform function. RCVA can be applied at regional scales without proprietary and data-intensive physical models of reservoir systems or ecological models of species that comprise tailwater communities. Using RCVA, we produced ensemble projections of risk and duration of extreme high-temperature or low-flow events below federal reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. Bayesian modeling of simulated results allowed us to evaluate differences between risk under a future and baseline scenario relative to model uncertainties and to quantify uncertainty in modeled risks. Based on assumptions that historical patterns of reservoir dynamics and operation will continue, and that regulatory thresholds will not change, the risk of thermal exceedance was projected to increase by an average of 0.27 and extend into late-spring and fall (average change in duration of 10.3 d). For flow, RCVA projected an increase of 0.07 in the average risk below-thresholds flows, with an average increase in duration of 4.6 d. Here both results raise concerns that cold-water salmonids of the PNW will be at increased risk under a future climate scenario.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1618157

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1468288

Journal Information:: Climate Risk Management, Vol. 21, Issue C; ISSN 2212-0963

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (66)

Thermal tolerances of fishes occupying groundwater and surface-water dominated streams Farless, Nicole A.; Brewer, Shannon K. Freshwater Science, Vol. 36, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1086/694781	journal	December 2017
Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW Ashfaq, Moetasim; Ghosh, Subimal; Kao, Shih-Chieh Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50816	journal	October 2013
A Conceptual Tool for Climate Change Risk Assessment Higgins, Paul A. T.; Steinbuck, Jonah V. Earth Interactions, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-14-0003.1	journal	December 2014
Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States Eaton, John G.; Scheller, Robert M. Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109	journal	July 1996
A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter data set for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous US Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S. -C.; Ashfaq, M. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-67-2014	journal	January 2014
PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN ¹ Miles, Edward L.; Snover, Amy K.; Hamlet, Alan F. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 36, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04277.x	journal	April 2000
El Niño Southern Oscillation and climate trends impact reservoir water quality: CLIMATE PHENOMENA AND RESERVOIR WATER QUALITY MarcÉ, Rafael; RodrÍGuez-Arias, Miquel ÀNgel; GarcÍA, Juan Carlos Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02163.x	journal	August 2010
A risk-based approach to evaluating northeast US fish community vulnerability to climate change Gaichas, S. K.; Link, J. S.; Hare, J. A. ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 71, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu048	journal	April 2014
Preparing for Climatic Change: The Water, Salmon, and Forests of the Pacific Northwest Mote, Philip W.; Parson, Edward A.; Hamlet, Alan F. Climatic Change, Vol. 61, Issue 1/2, p. 45-88 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026302914358	journal	January 2003
The Response of Water Temperatures to Meteorological Conditions Edinger, John E.; Duttweiler, David W.; Geyer, John C. Water Resources Research, Vol. 4, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR004i005p01137	journal	October 1968
Climate and conspecific density trigger pre-spawning mortality in sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) Tillotson, Michael D.; Quinn, Thomas P. Fisheries Research, Vol. 188 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2016.12.013	journal	April 2017
Legacy effects of wildfire on stream thermal regimes and rainbow trout ecology: an integrated analysis of observation and individual-based models Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Neuswanger, Jason R. Freshwater Science, Vol. 34, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1086/683338	journal	December 2015
Risk and resilience in an uncertain world Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1759	journal	February 2018
Restoring Salmon Habitat for a Changing Climate: Restoring Salmon Habitat for a Changing Climate Beechie, T.; Imaki, H.; Greene, J. River Research and Applications https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.2590	journal	June 2012
Climate change and California drought in the 21st century Mann, Michael E.; Gleick, Peter H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1503667112	journal	March 2015
Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States Kaushal, Sujay S.; Likens, Gene E.; Jaworski, Norbert A. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/090037	journal	November 2010
Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat Null, Sarah E.; Viers, Joshua H.; Deas, Michael L. Climatic Change, Vol. 116, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0459-8	journal	April 2012
Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration Battin, J.; Wiley, M. W.; Ruckelshaus, M. H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701685104	journal	April 2007
Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation Katzav, Joel The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 64, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axs002	journal	March 2013
Are Coldwater Fish Populations of the United States Actually being Protected by Temperature Standards? McCullough, Dale A. Freshwater Reviews, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1608/FRJ-3.2.4	journal	December 2010
Recent Water Temperature Trends in the Lower Klamath River, California Bartholow, John M. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1577/M04-007.1	journal	February 2005
Potential effects of global climate change on National Fish Hatchery operations in the Pacific Northwest, USA Hanson, Kc; Ostrand, Kg Aquaculture Environment Interactions, Vol. 1, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3354/aei00018	journal	March 2011
Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO ₂ and climate change in arid and semiarid western N orth A merica Perry, Laura G.; Andersen, Douglas C.; Reynolds, Lindsay V. Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02588.x	journal	November 2011
Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Rieman, Bruce E. Ecological Applications, Vol. 20, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0822.1	journal	July 2010
Global Accounting of PCBs in the Continental Shelf Sediments Jönsson, Anders; Gustafsson, Örjan; Axelman, Johan Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1021/es0201404	journal	January 2003
Targeting conservation efforts in the presence of threshold effects and ecosystem linkages Wu, JunJie; Skelton-Groth, Katharine Ecological Economics, Vol. 42, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00104-0	journal	August 2002
Ratio Estimators and Some Inherent Problems in Their Utilization Flueck, John A.; Holland, Burt S. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 15, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<0535:REASIP>2.0.CO;2	journal	June 1976
Spatial design principles for sustainable hydropower development in river basins Jager, Henriëtte I.; Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Opperman, Jeff J. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 45 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.067	journal	May 2015
Hydropower Relicensing and Climate Change1: Hydropower Relicensing and Climate Change Viers, Joshua H. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00531.x	journal	March 2011
Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 556 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027	journal	January 2018
Water Resources Raymondi, Rick R.; Cuhaciyan, Jennifer E.; Glick, Patty Climate Change in the Northwest https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-512-0_3	book	January 2013
Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario Lee, Se-Yeun; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fitzgerald, Carolyn J. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 135, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440)	journal	November 2009
Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling Poff, N. LeRoy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2765	journal	September 2015
Research in Thermal Biology: Burning Questions for Coldwater Stream Fishes McCullough, Dale A.; Bartholow, John M.; Jager, Henriëtte I. Reviews in Fisheries Science, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/10641260802590152	journal	January 2009
Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin Payne, Jeffrey T.; Wood, Andrew W.; Hamlet, Alan F. Climatic Change, Vol. 62, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013694.18154.d6	journal	January 2004
Statistical methods for meta-analyses including information from studies without any events-add nothing to nothing and succeed nevertheless Kuss, O. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 34, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.6383	journal	December 2014
Effect of Temperature on Growth and Survival of Bull Trout, with Application of an Improved Method for Determining Thermal Tolerance in Fishes Selong, Jason H.; McMahon, Thomas E.; Zale, Alexander V. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, Vol. 130, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(2001)130<1026:EOTOGA>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 2001
Limitations to the feasibility of using hypolimnetic releases to create refuges for riverine species in response to stream warming Matthews, Ty G.; Lester, Rebecca E.; Cummings, Courtney R. Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 54 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.07.026	journal	December 2015
Anticipated Climate Warming Effects on Bull Trout Habitats and Populations Across the Interior Columbia River Basin Rieman, Bruce E.; Isaak, Daniel; Adams, Susan Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, Vol. 136, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1577/T07-028.1	journal	November 2007
Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes Isaak, D. J.; Wollrab, S.; Horan, D. Climatic Change, Vol. 113, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0326-z	journal	November 2011
High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS OVER THE U.S. Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025285	journal	September 2016
History and heroes: the thermal niche of fishes and long-term lake ice dynamics* Magnuson, J. J. Journal of Fish Biology, Vol. 77, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02781.x	journal	October 2010
Steelhead vulnerability to climate change in the Pacific Northwest Wade, Alisa A.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Fleishman, Erica Journal of Applied Ecology https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12137	journal	July 2013
Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using a multi-criteria outranking approach with application to heat stress in Sydney El-Zein, Abbas; Tonmoy, Fahim N. Ecological Indicators, Vol. 48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.08.012	journal	January 2015
Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change Smith, Pascalle C.; Heinrich, Georg; Suklitsch, Martin Climatic Change, Vol. 127, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1263-4	journal	November 2014
Hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA Graves, D.; Chang, H. Climate Research, Vol. 33 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033143	journal	February 2007
Projected climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Pacific Northwest rivers: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOW AND TEMPERATURE Wu, Huan; Kimball, John S.; Elsner, Marketa M. Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012082	journal	November 2012
Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Peterson, Douglas P. Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12136	journal	March 2013
Bayesian linear mixed models using Stan: A tutorial for psychologists, linguists, and cognitive scientists Sorensen, Tanner; Hohenstein, Sven; Vasishth, Shravan The Quantitative Methods for Psychology, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.20982/tqmp.12.3.p175	journal	October 2016
Classification of US Hydropower Dams by their Modes of Operation: Hydropower Modes of Operation McManamay, R. A.; Oigbokie, C. O.; Kao, S. -C. River Research and Applications, Vol. 32, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3004	journal	February 2016
Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 143 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.003	journal	August 2016
Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain Watershed, U.S.A Eby, Lisa A.; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M. PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098812	journal	June 2014
Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin Ghile, Y. B.; Taner, M. Ü.; Brown, C. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1008-9	journal	November 2013
How Run-of-River Operation Affects Hydropower Generation and Value Jager, Henriette I.; Bevelhimer, Mark S. Environmental Management, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-007-9008-z	journal	September 2007
Estimating Thermal Regimes of bull Trout and Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Warming on Critical Habitats: bull Trout Thermal Regime and Climate Warming Jones, L. A.; Muhlfeld, C. C.; Marshall, L. A. River Research and Applications, Vol. 30, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.2638	journal	January 2013
Using Time Series Analysis to Characterize Evolutionary and Plastic Responses to Environmental Change: A Case Study of a Shift toward Earlier Migration Date in Sockeye Salmon Crozier, Lisa G.; Scheuerell, Mark D.; Zabel, Richard W. The American Naturalist, Vol. 178, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1086/662669	journal	December 2011
Constructive Contrasts Between Modeled and Measured Climate Responses Over a Regional Scale Jager, Henrietta I.; Hargrove, W. W.; Brandt, C. C. Ecosystems, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s100210000035	journal	July 2000
A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models Gelman, Andrew; Jakulin, Aleks; Pittau, Maria Grazia The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS191	journal	December 2008
Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species: Climate Change and the ESA Mcclure, Michelle M.; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane Conservation Biology, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12166	journal	December 2013
On the equations of landscape formation Chen, Alex; Darbon, Jérôme; Buttazzo, Giuseppe Interfaces and Free Boundaries, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.4171/IFB/315	journal	January 2014
Towards threshold-based management of freshwater ecosystems in the context of climate change Liu, Junguo; Kattel, Giri; Arp, Hans Peter H. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 318 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.09.010	journal	December 2015
Predicting the Discharge of Global Rivers Nijssen, Bart; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3307:PTDOGR>2.0.CO;2	journal	August 2001
Would Hydrologic Climate Changes in Sierra Nevada Streams Influence Trout Persistence? Jager, H. I.; Van Winkle, W.; Holcomb, B. D. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, Vol. 128, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(1999)128<0222:WHCCIS>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 1999
Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model Lohmann, D.; Raschke, E.; Nijssen, B. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 43, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669809492107	journal	February 1998
Bias correction of daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model: a comparison of methods Lafon, Thomas; Dadson, Simon; Buys, Gwen International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 33, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3518	journal	May 2012
Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers Adam, Jennifer C.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Su, Fengge Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008525	journal	January 2007

Cited By (1)

Avoiding Conflicts between Future Freshwater Algae Production and Water Scarcity in the United States at the Energy-Water Nexus Jager, Henriette I.; Efroymson, Rebecca A.; Baskaran, Latha M. Water, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040836	journal	April 2019

Similar Records

What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

Journal Article · 2014 · Biogeosciences, 11(10):2601–2622 · OSTI ID:1158992

Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; +11 more

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

Journal Article · 2020 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1669037

Cheng, Yifan; Voisin, Nathalie; Yearsley, John R.; +1 more

Quantifying the Behavioral Response of Spawning Chum Salmon to Elevated Discharges from Bonneville Dam, Columbia River : Annual Report 2005-2006.

Technical Report · 2008 · OSTI ID:961851

Tiffan, Kenneth F; Haskell, Craig A; Kock, Tobias J

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Thresholds
Thermal criteria
Minimum flow
Climate vulnerability assessment
Water standards
Seasonal risk assessment
Duration
Uncertainty

Title: Will future climate change increase the risk of violating minimum flow and maximum temperature thresholds below dams in the Pacific Northwest?

Citation Formats

References (66)

Cited By (1)

Similar Records

Related Subjects