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Title: Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

Abstract

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite inmore » sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1616730
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10398
Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Change Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 01; Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
Publisher:
World Scientific
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; integrated assessment; climate change impacts; agricultural economics

Citation Formats

Calvin, Katherine V., Mignone, Bryan, Kheshgi, Haroon, Snyder, Abigail C., Patel, Pralit L., Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., and Edmonds, James A. Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500050.
Calvin, Katherine V., Mignone, Bryan, Kheshgi, Haroon, Snyder, Abigail C., Patel, Pralit L., Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., & Edmonds, James A. Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500050
Calvin, Katherine V., Mignone, Bryan, Kheshgi, Haroon, Snyder, Abigail C., Patel, Pralit L., Wise, Marshall A., Clarke, Leon E., and Edmonds, James A. Wed . "Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500050. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1616730.
@article{osti_1616730,
title = {Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change},
author = {Calvin, Katherine V. and Mignone, Bryan and Kheshgi, Haroon and Snyder, Abigail C. and Patel, Pralit L. and Wise, Marshall A. and Clarke, Leon E. and Edmonds, James A.},
abstractNote = {The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.},
doi = {10.1142/S2010007820500050},
journal = {Climate Change Economics},
number = 01,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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