Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urban, Nathan Mark

doi:10.1029/2019JC014979

Title: Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Journal Article · 24 December 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC014979 · OSTI ID:1616422

^[1];

^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1616422

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-19-20905

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 12; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 8 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (62)

The CCSM4 Ocean Component Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bates, Susan C.; Briegleb, Bruce P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1	journal	March 2012
Polar lows in the Labrador Sea. A case study Moore, G. W. K.; Reader, M. C.; York, J. Tellus A, Vol. 48, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.00002.x	journal	January 1996
An Elastic–Viscous–Plastic Model for Sea Ice Dynamics Hunke, E. C.; Dukowicz, J. K. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1849:AEVPMF>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 1997
A New Two-Moment Bulk Stratiform Cloud Microphysics Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 3 (CAM3). Part I: Description and Numerical Tests Morrison, Hugh; Gettelman, Andrew Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2105.1	journal	August 2008
Sensible and Latent Heat Flux Measurements over the Ocean Large, W. G.; Pond, S. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<0464:SALHFM>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 1982
Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice? Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076446	journal	March 2018
Factorial Sampling Plans for Preliminary Computational Experiments Morris, Max D. Technometrics, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484804	journal	May 1991
Efficient screening of climate model sensitivity to a large number of perturbed input parameters: PERTURBED INPUT-PARAMETER SENSITIVITY Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Tannahill, John Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20040	journal	July 2013
Parameterization of Generalized Cloud Overlap for Radiative Calculations in General Circulation Models Collins, William D. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 58, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3224:POGCOF>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 2001
The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent Cox, Christopher J.; Uttal, Taneil; Long, Charles N. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0136.1	journal	September 2016
CAM-SE: A scalable spectral element dynamical core for the Community Atmosphere Model Dennis, John M.; Edwards, Jim; Evans, Katherine J. The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342011428142	journal	November 2011
Improved Sea Ice Shortwave Radiation Physics in CCSM4: The Impact of Melt Ponds and Aerosols on Arctic Sea Ice Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.; Briegleb, Bruce P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00078.1	journal	March 2012
An Interpretation of Cloud Overlap Statistics Tompkins, Adrian M.; Di Giuseppe, Francesca Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 72, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0278.1	journal	August 2015
Level-ice melt ponds in the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Hebert, David A.; Lecomte, Olivier Ocean Modelling, Vol. 71 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.11.008	journal	November 2013
Surface Fluxes for Practitioners of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Large, William B. Ocean Weather Forecasting https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4028-8_9	book	January 2006
Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 122, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012602	journal	April 2017
A sensitivity study of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere to cloud-microphysics and aerosol parameters in the community atmosphere model CAM5 Zhao, C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10969-2013	journal	January 2013
Integrating Cloud Processes in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5 Park, Sungsu; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Rasch, Philip J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00087.1	journal	September 2014
Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hurrell, James W. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204745	journal	March 1994
Characteristics of the Beaufort Sea High Serreze, Mark C.; Barrett, Andrew P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3636.1	journal	January 2011
Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models Gent, Peter R.; Mcwilliams, James C. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 1990
The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum Kay, Jennifer E.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Gettelman, Andrew Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033451	journal	January 2008
An eddy resolving global 1/10° ocean simulation Maltrud, Mathew E.; McClean, Julie L. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 8, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.001	journal	January 2005
Outlier Problem in Evaluating Similarity Functions in the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer Grachev, Andrey A.; Andreas, Edgar L.; Fairall, Christopher W. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 144, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-012-9714-9	journal	March 2012
Spectral albedo of seasonal snow during intensive melt period at Sodankylä, beyond the Arctic Circle Meinander, O.; Kazadzis, S.; Arola, A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3793-2013	journal	January 2013
E3SMv0‐HiLAT: A Modified Climate System Model Targeted for the Study of High‐Latitude Processes Hecht, Matthew; Veneziani, Milena; Weijer, Wilbert Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001524	journal	August 2019
Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution Bernard, Barnier; Madec, Gurvan; Penduff, Thierry Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 56, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-006-0082-1	journal	June 2006
Sensitivity analysis and parameter tuning scheme for global sea-ice modeling Kim, Jong G.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Lipscomb, William H. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 14, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.03.003	journal	January 2006
Two modes of sea-ice gravity drainage: A parameterization for large-scale modeling: GRAVITY DRAINAGE Turner, Adrian K.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Bitz, Cecilia M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20171	journal	May 2013
Cloud influence on and response to seasonal Arctic sea ice loss Kay, Jennifer E.; Gettelman, Andrew Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue D18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011773	journal	January 2009
Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1	journal	October 2015
Formation and distribution of sea ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence: A process-oriented study using a coupled ocean-ice model Urrego-Blanco, Jorge; Sheng, Jinyu Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 119, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010185	journal	October 2014
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Impact of 1/8° to 1/64° resolution on Gulf Stream model–data comparisons in basin-scale subtropical Atlantic Ocean models Hurlburt, Harley E.; Hogan, Patrick J. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, Vol. 32, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0265(00)00050-6	journal	August 2000
Less winter cloud aids summer 2013 Arctic sea ice return from 2012 minimum Liu, Yinghui; Key, Jeffrey R. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044002	journal	April 2014
Overview of Arctic Cloud and Radiation Characteristics Curry, Judith A.; Schramm, Julie L.; Rossow, William B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1731:OOACAR>2.0.CO;2	journal	August 1996
Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System Nobre, Carlos; Brasseur, Guy P.; Shapiro, Melvyn A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 91, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3012.1	journal	October 2010
Observations of Stably Stratified Shear-Driven Atmospheric Turbulence at Low and High Richardson Numbers Mauritsen, Thorsten; Svensson, Gunilla Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 64, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3856.1	journal	February 2007
The Aleutian Low and Winter Climatic Conditions in the Bering Sea. Part I: Classification Rodionov, S. N.; Overland, J. E.; Bond, N. A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3253.1	journal	January 2005
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian Nature, Vol. 464, Issue 7293 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051	journal	April 2010
Synoptic Conditions, Clouds, and Sea Ice Melt Onset in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seasonal Ice Zone Liu, Zheng; Schweiger, Axel Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0887.1	journal	September 2017
Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization Large, W. G.; McWilliams, J. C.; Doney, S. C. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 32, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/94RG01872	journal	January 1994
Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation Rigor, Ignatius G.; Wallace, John M.; Colony, Roger L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2648:ROSITT>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 2002
Global sensitivity analysis in an ocean general circulation model: a sparse spectral projection approach Alexanderian, Alen; Winokur, Justin; Sraj, Ihab Computational Geosciences, Vol. 16, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-012-9286-2	journal	March 2012
Dramatic interannual changes of perennial Arctic sea ice linked to abnormal summer storm activity Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian; Keay, Kevin Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015847	journal	January 2011
Recent Advances in Arctic Cloud and Climate Research Kay, Jennifer E.; L’Ecuyer, Tristan; Chepfer, Helene Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0051-9	journal	October 2016
Uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning in the CAM5 Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme and impact of improved convection on the global circulation and climate: PARAMETERS TUNING IN CAM5 AND ITS IMPACT Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Lin, Guang Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018213	journal	January 2013
Observed Trends and Teleconnections of the Siberian High: A Recently Declining Center of Action Panagiotopoulos, Fotis; Shahgedanova, Maria; Hannachi, Abdelwaheb Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3352.1	journal	May 2005
Ridging, strength, and stability in high-resolution sea ice models Lipscomb, William H.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Maslowski, Wieslaw Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue C3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003355	journal	January 2007
The thermal conductivity of seasonal snow Sturm, Matthew; Holmgren, Jon; König, Max Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 43, Issue 143 https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000002781	journal	January 1997
An effective screening design for sensitivity analysis of large models Campolongo, Francesca; Cariboni, Jessica; Saltelli, Andrea Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 22, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.10.004	journal	October 2007
Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model Urrego‐Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 121, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011558	journal	April 2016
A sea-ice sensitivity study with a global ocean-ice model Uotila, P.; O’Farrell, S.; Marsland, S. J. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 51 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.04.002	journal	July 2012
Decadal variability and a recent amplification of the summer Beaufort Sea High: AMPLIFICATION OF THE BEAUFORT SEA HIGH Moore, G. W. K. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051570	journal	May 2012
A sensitivity study of the sea ice simulation in the global coupled climate model, HadGEM3 Rae, J. G. L.; Hewitt, H. T.; Keen, A. B. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 74 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.12.003	journal	February 2014
Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000045	journal	January 2011
The University of Washington Shallow Convection and Moist Turbulence Schemes and Their Impact on Climate Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model Park, Sungsu; Bretherton, Christopher S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2557.1	journal	June 2009
Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific Hurrell, James W.; Trenberth, Kevin E. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050027	journal	March 1994
Factorial Sampling Plans for Preliminary Computational Experiments Morris, Max D. Technometrics, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2307/1269043	journal	May 1991
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B. Nature, Vol. 593, Issue 7857 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0	journal	May 2021
A sensitivity study of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere to cloud-microphysics and aerosol parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 Zhao, C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-12135-2013	journal	January 2013
Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution Barnier, Bernard; Madec, Gurvan; Penduff, Thierry Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 59, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-009-0180-y	journal	February 2009