Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [3]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [7];  [16];  [17]; ORCiD logo [18] more »; ORCiD logo [19];  [20]; ORCiD logo [21];  [22]; ORCiD logo [23];  [24]; ORCiD logo [25]; ORCiD logo [26];  [14];  [26];  [27]; ORCiD logo [28];  [29];  [30];  [31]; ;  [16];  [32];  [33];  [16];  [34];  [7]; ORCiD logo [3];  [35]; ORCiD logo [36];  [13];  [37];  [38];  [39];  [26];  [40]; ORCiD logo [41]; ORCiD logo [42]; ORCiD logo [1];  [43]; ORCiD logo [44];  [45]; ORCiD logo [46];  [7]; ORCiD logo [47];  [48]; ORCiD logo [4];  [49]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [50] « less
  1. Leibniz Inst. for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin (Germany)
  2. Univ. College Cork (Ireland)
  3. Univ. de Montpellier (France)
  4. Netherlands Inst. of Ecology, Wageningen (Netherlands)
  5. Univ. of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom)
  6. Palacký Univ., Olomouc (Czech Republic)
  7. Univ. of Antwerp (Belgium)
  8. Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm (Sweden)
  9. Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Vancouver, BC (Canada)
  10. Experimental Station of Arid Zones, Almeria (Spain)
  11. Univ. of Seville (Spain)
  12. Univ. of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Brownsville, TX (United States)
  13. Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona (Spain)
  14. Bush Estate, Penicuik (United Kingdom)
  15. Univ. Paul Sabatier, Moulis (France)
  16. Univ. of Extremadura, Badajoz (Spain)
  17. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
  18. Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich (Germany)
  19. Univ. of Hyogo, Kobe (Japan)
  20. Univ. of Turku (Finland)
  21. Leibniz Inst. for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin (Germany); Potsdam Univ. (Germany)
  22. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès (Spain); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Bellaterra (Spain)
  23. Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim (Norway); Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway)
  24. Univ. of Gloucestershire (United Kingdom)
  25. Estonian Univ. of Life Sciences, Tartu (Estonia)
  26. Lund Univ. (Sweden)
  27. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (BiK-F). Frankfurt (Germany)
  28. Univ. of Potsdam (Germany); HSR Hochschule für Technik, Rapperswil (Switzerland)
  29. Univ. of Ottawa, ON (Canada)
  30. Univ. of Granada (Spain)
  31. Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
  32. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Bellaterra (Spain)
  33. Univ. of Zurich (Switzerland)
  34. LPO Mission Rapaces, Mas-Thibert (France)
  35. Museum für Naturkunde, Berlin (Germany)
  36. Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River Ecology Lab. (SREL)
  37. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès (Spain); Natural History Museum of Granollers (Spain)
  38. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), Bellaterra (Spain); Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim (Norway)
  39. Tokyo Metropolitan Univ. (Japan)
  40. Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
  41. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany)
  42. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
  43. Poznan Univ. of Life Sciences (Poland)
  44. Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)
  45. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  46. Universite Paris-Saclay, Orsay (France)
  47. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
  48. Auburn Univ., AL (United States)
  49. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  50. Leibniz Inst. for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin (Germany); Technical Univ. of Berlin (Germany)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Research Organization:
Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Environmental Management (EM)
Grant/Contract Number:
FC09-07SR22506
OSTI ID:
1614670
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 227 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (76)

Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change? journal January 2013
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change journal December 2006
PanTHERIA: a species-level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals journal September 2009
Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change journal October 2011
Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century journal March 2018
Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch journal November 2007
Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation journal August 2007
Global change and carnivore body size: data are stasis journal March 2009
Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence? journal November 2013
What Are the Environmental Determinants of Phenotypic Selection? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies journal September 2017
When environmental variation short-circuits natural selection journal May 2003
The Measurement of Selection on Correlated Characters journal November 1983
Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts journal December 2020
Climate change and evolutionary adaptation journal February 2011
Evolution and Extinction in a Changing Environment: a Quantitative-Genetic Analysis journal February 1995
Conditional Akaike information for mixed-effects models journal June 2005
Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection text January 2017
Extinction risk from climate change journal January 2004
Facilitating systematic reviews, data extraction and meta-analysis with the metagear package for r journal October 2015
Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long‐distance migratory birds journal September 2016
Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity journal August 2016
Evolution and Extinction in a Changing Environment: A Quantitative-Genetic Analysis journal February 1995
Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change journal September 2012
ALADYN - a spatially explicit, allelic model for simulating adaptive dynamics journal May 2014
Global imprint of climate change on marine life text January 2013
Resolving the Paradox of Stasis: Models with Stabilizing Selection Explain Evolutionary Divergence on All Timescales journal February 2007
Species’ traits influenced their response to recent climate change journal February 2017
Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses journal January 2008
Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence journal January 2014
Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades journal April 2018
Phenotypic Selection in Natural Populations: What Limits Directional Selection? journal March 2011
Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range journal May 2016
Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory journal April 2010
Linking macrotrends and microrates: Re-evaluating microevolutionary support for Cope's rule: BRIEF COMMUNICATION journal April 2015
Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change journal February 2015
Quantitative Assessment of the Importance of Phenotypic Plasticity in Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Bird Populations journal July 2013
Estimating genetic parameters in natural populations using the ‘animal model’ journal June 2004
Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming journal March 2014
Return to quiescence of mouse neural stem cells by degradation of a proactivation protein journal July 2016
Testing environmental and genetic effects in the presence of spatial autocorrelation journal February 2014
Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection text January 2017
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems journal January 2003
Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts journal November 2017
Adaptive Phenotypic Plasticity in Response to Climate Change in a Wild Bird Population journal May 2008
TRY - a global database of plant traits: TRY - A GLOBAL DATABASE OF PLANT TRAITS journal June 2011
COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography journal January 2016
Recent changes in body weight and wing length among some British passerine birds journal January 2006
Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity journal February 2014
Declining body size: a third universal response to warming? journal June 2011
Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals journal September 2017
Modeling Adaptive and Nonadaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change journal September 2017
Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models: Eco-Evo PVAs journal December 2014
When genes and environment disagree: Making sense of trends in recent human evolution journal July 2016
Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection journal March 2017
Global imprint of climate change on marine life journal August 2013
Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale journal January 2012
Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes journal September 2008
Modeling adaptive and nonadaptive responses of populations to environmental change text January 2017
Delayed phenology and reduced fitness associated with climate change in a wild hibernator journal August 2012
What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the “arrival constraint” hypothesis journal April 2010
Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming journal September 2007
The Strength of Phenotypic Selection in Natural Populations journal March 2001
Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change journal February 2016
Population Growth in a Wild Bird Is Buffered Against Phenological Mismatch journal April 2013
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis book March 2014
Variability effects by consumers exceed their average effects across an environmental gradient of mussel recruitment journal May 2021
A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change journal February 2018
Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels journal June 2016
Mismatch Between Birth Date and Vegetation Phenology Slows the Demography of Roe Deer journal April 2014
Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics journal April 2016
It’s about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild journal November 2009
Phenotypic Selection in Natural Populations: What Limits Directional Selection? text January 2011
The Measurement of Selection on Correlated Characters journal November 1983
Data from: Linking macro-trends and micro-rates: re-evaluating micro-evolutionary support for Cope’s rule dataset January 2015
Data from: It's about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild dataset January 2009
PanTHERIA: a species-level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals collection January 2016

Cited By (11)

Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions journal October 2019
Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds journal February 2020
Can Arctic seabirds adapt to climate change? journal August 2019
Hybridization increases population variation during adaptive radiation journal October 2019
Extreme temperature drop alters hatching delay, reproductive success, and physiological condition in great tits journal January 2020
The ‘algebra of evolution’: the Robertson–Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population journal March 2020
The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population. text January 2019
The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population. text January 2019
Foraging niche shift maintains breeding parameters of a colonial waterbird during range expansion journal February 2020
The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population journal November 2019
Insect responses to heat: physiological mechanisms, evolution and ecological implications in a warming world journal February 2020

Similar Records

Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Science & Technology - Other Topics