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Title: Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model

Journal Article · · Water Resources Research
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (United States)
  2. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  3. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
  4. Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US. Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT (United States)
  5. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
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A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. Our application to 18 streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. The spatial network structure produced a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network aggregating information from upstream gauges and tree ring chronologies. Uncertainty was reduced by more than 50% at six gauges, between 6% and 50% at one gauge, and by less than 5% at the remaining 11 gauges when compared with the traditional principal component regression reconstruction model.

Research Organization:
City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0018124; 1401698; 1404188; 1360446
OSTI ID:
1612849
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1560770
Journal Information:
Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 9; ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 13 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Figures / Tables (15)

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Marine & Freshwater Biology
Water Resources
spatial Markov model
paleo‐reconstructions
streamflow reconstructions
Bayesian statistics
water management
stochastic hydrology