Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Seasonally Modulated ENSO Forcing Forecasts

Zhao, Sen; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

doi:10.1029/2019gl084196

Title: Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Seasonally Modulated ENSO Forcing Forecasts

Journal Article · 29 August 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084196 · OSTI ID:1610804

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Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing (China). CIC‐FEMD/ILCEC, Key Lab. of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, and College of Atmospheric Science; Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Center for Climate Physics, Inst. for Basic Science, Busan (South Korea); Pusan National Univ., Busan (South Korea)

Despite recent progress in seasonal forecast systems, the predictive skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains typically limited to a lead time of one season or less in both dynamical and empirical models. Here we develop a simple stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) to predict the IOD using seasonally modulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing together with a seasonally modulated Indian Ocean coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback. The SDM, with either observed or forecasted ENSO forcing, exhibits generally higher skill and longer lead times for predicting IOD events than the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 and the Scale Interaction Experiment–Frontier system. The improvements mainly originate from better prediction of ENSO-dependent IOD events and from reducing false alarms. These results affirm our hypothesis that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence is largely controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the system. Therefore, potential future ENSO improvements in models should translate to more skillful IOD predictions.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0005110

OSTI ID:: 1610804

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1559379

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 16; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 35 works

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