Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

Abstract

After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [4];  [5];  [4]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
  3. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)
  4. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  5. Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1609290
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Science & Technology - Other Topics

Citation Formats

Meehl, Gerald A., Arblaster, Julie M., Chung, Christine T. Y., Holland, Marika M., DuVivier, Alice, Thompson, LuAnne, Yang, Dongxia, and Bitz, Cecilia M. Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9.
Copy to clipboard
Meehl, Gerald A., Arblaster, Julie M., Chung, Christine T. Y., Holland, Marika M., DuVivier, Alice, Thompson, LuAnne, Yang, Dongxia, & Bitz, Cecilia M. Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9
Copy to clipboard
Meehl, Gerald A., Arblaster, Julie M., Chung, Christine T. Y., Holland, Marika M., DuVivier, Alice, Thompson, LuAnne, Yang, Dongxia, and Bitz, Cecilia M. Wed . "Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1609290.
Copy to clipboard
@article{osti_1609290,
title = {Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Chung, Christine T. Y. and Holland, Marika M. and DuVivier, Alice and Thompson, LuAnne and Yang, Dongxia and Bitz, Cecilia M.},
abstractNote = {After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 02 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Wed Jan 02 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
Copy to clipboard
Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9
Copyright Statement
Other availability
Search WorldCat Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 125 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Save / Share:
Export Metadata
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.

Works referenced in this record:

New Perspectives on Observed and Simulated Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Trends Using Optimal Fingerprinting Techniques
journal, February 2015

  • Hobbs, William Richard; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Raphael, Marilyn N.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00367.1

Argo Observations of the Deep Mixing Band in the Southern Ocean: A Salinity Modeling Challenge
journal, October 2018

  • DuVivier, Alice K.; Large, William G.; Small, R. Justin
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014275

Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016: The 2016 Antarctic Sea Ice Retreat
journal, July 2017

  • Turner, John; Phillips, Tony; Marshall, Gareth J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073656

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
journal, August 2013

A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model
journal, October 2008

  • Hurrell, James W.; Hack, James J.; Shea, Dennis
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1

Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology
journal, January 2004

  • de Boyer Montégut, Clément
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, Issue C12
  • DOI: 10.1029/2004JC002378

Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season: RECORD LOW 2016 ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT
journal, September 2017

  • Stuecker, Malte F.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Armour, Kyle C.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074691

Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses
journal, December 2003

Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024: DECADAL HINDCASTS: EVAL AND PRED
journal, August 2015

  • Thoma, Malte; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Kadow, Christopher
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064833

Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data, Version 1
null, January 1996

  • Cavalieri, Donald
  • NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center
  • DOI: 10.5067/8GQ8LZQVL0VL

The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus: GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS AND 2015 EL NIÑO
journal, April 2017

  • Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey V.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072908

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
journal, October 2016

Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016
journal, January 2019

MIMOC: A global monthly isopycnal upper-ocean climatology with mixed layers: MIMOC
journal, April 2013

  • Schmidtko, Sunke; Johnson, Gregory C.; Lyman, John M.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1002/jgrc.20122

Antarctic Ocean and Sea Ice Response to Ozone Depletion: A Two-Time-Scale Problem
journal, February 2015

Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends
journal, August 2016

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Santer, Benjamin D.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3107

Vertical ocean heat redistribution sustaining sea-ice concentration trends in the Ross Sea
journal, August 2017

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice
journal, January 2014

  • Li, Xichen; Holland, David M.; Gerber, Edwin P.
  • Nature, Vol. 505, Issue 7484
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature12945

Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming
journal, March 2017

  • Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Huijun
  • Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/srep43735

Teleconnections between Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Climate
journal, January 2015

  • Ciasto, Laura M.; Simpkins, Graham R.; England, Matthew H.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00438.1

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models
journal, May 2016

Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability
journal, July 2016

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Bitz, Cecilia M.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2751

Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay
journal, January 2018

  • Schlosser, Elisabeth; Haumann, F. Alexander; Raphael, Marilyn N.
  • The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-1103-2018

The 2004–2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program
journal, August 2009

Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC)
dataset, January 2018

  • Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda
  • DOI: 10.17882/42182

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
journal, June 2016

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan
  • Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11718

Massive Southern Ocean phytoplankton bloom fed by iron of possible hydrothermal origin
journal, February 2021

  • Schine, Casey M. S.; Alderkamp, Anne-Carlijn; van Dijken, Gert
  • Nature Communications, Vol. 12, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21339-5

Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC)
dataset, January 2018

  • Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda
  • DOI: 10.17882/42182

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Related to the Southern Annular Mode
journal, October 2017

  • Doddridge, Edward W.; Marshall, John
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl074319

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models
journal, May 2016

Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth from Argo float profiles
journal, January 2008

  • Dong, Shenfu; Sprintall, Janet; Gille, Sarah T.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue C6
  • DOI: 10.1029/2006jc004051

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
journal, August 2013

Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends
journal, August 2016

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Santer, Benjamin D.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3107

Temperature Change on the Antarctic Peninsula Linked to the Tropical Pacific
journal, October 2013

Tropical Connections to Climatic Change in the Extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The Role of Atlantic SST Trends
journal, July 2014

  • Simpkins, Graham R.; McGregor, Shayne; Taschetto, Andréa S.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00615.1

Impacts of Broad-Scale Surface Freshening of the Southern Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model
journal, April 2018

Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
journal, July 2018

  • Ionita, Monica; Scholz, Patrick; Grosfeld, Klaus
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-939-2018

Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data
dataset, January 2022

  • DiGirolamo, N. E.; Parkinson, C. L.; Cavalieri, D. J.
  • NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center
  • DOI: 10.5067/mpyg15waa4wx
    Sort by:
    [ × clear filter / sort ]

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Understanding the Seasonal Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the Context of Longer‐Term Variability
    journal, July 2019

    • Eayrs, Clare; Holland, David; Francis, Diana
    • Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 57, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018rg000631

    Effects of an Explosive Polar Cyclone Crossing the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone
    journal, June 2019

    • Vichi, Marcello; Eayrs, Clare; Alberello, Alberto
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082457

    Tropical Teleconnections to Antarctic Sea Ice During Austral Spring 2016 in Coupled Pacemaker Experiments
    journal, June 2019

    • Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082671

    Multimodel Analysis of the Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at Quadrupled CO 2
    journal, August 2019

    • Ayres, H. C.; Screen, J. A.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 16
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl083653

    Dynamic Fine‐Scale Sea Icescape Shapes Adult Emperor Penguin Foraging Habitat in East Antarctica
    journal, October 2019

    • Labrousse, Sara; Fraser, Alexander D.; Sumner, Michael
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 20
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084347

    Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016
    journal, January 2019

    Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies
    journal, June 2019

    Biomimetic design for enhancing the peroxidase mimicking activity of hemin
    journal, January 2019

    • Wu, Weiwei; Wang, Qingqing; Chen, Jinxing
    • Nanoscale, Vol. 11, Issue 26
    • DOI: 10.1039/c9nr03506k

    A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic
    journal, July 2019

    • Parkinson, Claire L.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 29
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1906556116

    Mapping DNA interaction landscapes in psoriasis susceptibility loci highlights KLF4 as a target gene in 9q31
    journal, May 2020

    Characterization of Moisture Sources for Austral Seas and Relationship with Sea Ice Concentration
    journal, October 2019

    • Reboita, Michelle Simões; Nieto, Raquel; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.
    • Atmosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.3390/atmos10100627

    The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss
    journal, January 2020

    A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic
    journal, July 2019

    • Parkinson, Claire L.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 29
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1906556116

    Bioengineered microenvironment to culture early embryos
    journal, January 2020

    • Gu, Zhen; Guo, Jia; Wang, Hongmei
    • Cell Proliferation, Vol. 53, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1111/cpr.12754

    Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System
    journal, December 2020

      Sort by:
      [ × clear filter / sort ]

      Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections: