Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Chung, Christine T.  Y.; Holland, Marika M.; DuVivier, Alice; Thompson, LuAnne; Yang, Dongxia; Bitz, Cecilia M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9

Title: Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016

Journal Article · 02 January 2019 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9 · OSTI ID:1609290

Meehl, Gerald A. ^[1]; Arblaster, Julie M. ^[2]; Chung, Christine T. Y. ^[3]; Holland, Marika M. ^[4];

^[4]; Thompson, LuAnne ^[5]; Yang, Dongxia ^[6]; Bitz, Cecilia M. ^[5]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1609290

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 10; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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