The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change
A few days with heavy rain contribute disproportionately to total precipitation, while many days with light drizzle contribute much less. What is not appreciated is just how asymmetric this distribution is in time, and the even more asymmetric nature of trends due to climate change. In this work we diagnose the temporal asymmetry in models and observations. Half of annual precipitation falls in the wettest 12 days each year in the median across observing stations worldwide. Climate models project changes in precipitation that are more uneven than present-day precipitation. In a scenario with high greenhouse-gas emissions, one fifth of the projected increase in rain falls in the wettest 2 days of the year and 70% in the wettest 2 weeks. Adjusting modeled unevenness to match present-day unevenness at stations, half of precipitation increase occurs in the wettest 6 days each year.
- Research Organization:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02-97ER62402
- OSTI ID:
- 1609285
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 21 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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