Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare

Zhang, Wenwen; Xu, Shi-Chun; He, Zhengxia; Shape, Basil; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao

doi:10.3390/su11195278

Title: Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare

Abstract

A recursive multisector dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model simulates the economic impacts of carbon tariffs, as proposed by the USA, ranging from $$\$$40/t to $$\$$60/t CO₂. We examine a carbon tax and export subsidy as response policies to the U.S. carbon tariff, respectively. The dynamic model shows the possible impacts of these policies on China’s economic structure, carbon emissions, and social welfare from 2020 to 2030. Simulations show that a carbon tariff changes the structure of China’s exports and promotes trade diversion from the USA to other countries and regions. A domestic carbon tax and subsidy policy can dampen the adverse impacts of carbon tariffs on trade. A carbon tax shows an effective impact on increasing clean energy use, decreasing the carbon intensity of output, and reducing carbon emissions. A subsidy on exports to the USA reduces the adverse impact of a carbon tariff on China’s social welfare in the short term.

Authors:

Zhang, Wenwen ^[1]; Xu, Shi-Chun ^[2]; He, Zhengxia ^[3]; Shape, Basil ^[1]; Zhao, Bin ^[4]; Wang, Shuxiao ^[5]

Univ. of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand)
China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou (China)
Jiangsu Normal Univ. Xuzhou (China)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

Publication Date:: 2019-09-25

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Jiangsu Social Science Fund; National Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China; China Scholarship Council

OSTI Identifier:: 1608791

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-147922
Journal ID: ISSN 2071-1050; SUSTDE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Sustainability (Basel)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Sustainability (Basel); Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 19; Journal ID: ISSN 2071-1050

Publisher:: MDPI

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; carbon tariffs, response policy, carbon emissions, trade, energy structure

Citation Formats


                    Zhang, Wenwen, Xu, Shi-Chun, He, Zhengxia, Shape, Basil, Zhao, Bin, and Wang, Shuxiao. Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.3390/su11195278.

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                    Zhang, Wenwen, Xu, Shi-Chun, He, Zhengxia, Shape, Basil, Zhao, Bin, & Wang, Shuxiao. Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195278

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                    Zhang, Wenwen, Xu, Shi-Chun, He, Zhengxia, Shape, Basil, Zhao, Bin, and Wang, Shuxiao. Wed .  
"Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195278.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1608791.

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@article{osti_1608791,

  title        = {Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare},

  author       = {Zhang, Wenwen and Xu, Shi-Chun and He, Zhengxia and Shape, Basil and Zhao, Bin and Wang, Shuxiao},

  abstractNote = {A recursive multisector dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model simulates the economic impacts of carbon tariffs, as proposed by the USA, ranging from $\$40/t to $\$60/t CO2. We examine a carbon tax and export subsidy as response policies to the U.S. carbon tariff, respectively. The dynamic model shows the possible impacts of these policies on China’s economic structure, carbon emissions, and social welfare from 2020 to 2030. Simulations show that a carbon tariff changes the structure of China’s exports and promotes trade diversion from the USA to other countries and regions. A domestic carbon tax and subsidy policy can dampen the adverse impacts of carbon tariffs on trade. A carbon tax shows an effective impact on increasing clean energy use, decreasing the carbon intensity of output, and reducing carbon emissions. A subsidy on exports to the USA reduces the adverse impact of a carbon tariff on China’s social welfare in the short term.},

  doi          = {10.3390/su11195278},

  journal      = {Sustainability (Basel)},

  number       = 19,

  volume       = 11,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2019},

  month        = {9}

}

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Title: Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare

Abstract

Citation Formats

How Large are the Impacts of Carbon Motivated Border tax Adjustments? journal, February 2012

Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage journal, April 2010

How Effective are US Renewable Energy Subsidies in Cutting Greenhouse Gases? journal, May 2014

Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-riding in International Climate Policy journal, April 2015

Economic and environmental impact analysis of carbon tariffs on Chinese exports journal, July 2015

Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China journal, May 2017

Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme journal, September 2015

Salience of carbon taxes in the gasoline market journal, November 2015

Border tax adjustments in the climate policy context: CO2 versus broad-based GHG emission targeting journal, December 2012

Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality? journal, March 2014

The Impacts and Countermeasures of levying Carbon Tax in China under Low-carbon Economy journal, January 2011

Carbon tariffs and cooperative outcomes journal, February 2014

The sustainability of urban renewal projects: a model for economic multi-criteria analysis journal, July 2017

The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy journal, November 2010

The reform of the European energy tax directive: Exploring potential economic impacts in the EU27 journal, December 2014

Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors journal, September 2014

Addressing the competitiveness effects of taxing carbon in China: domestic tax cuts versus border tax adjustments journal, January 2016

Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend journal, September 2019

Border Carbon Adjustments Based on Avoided Emissions: Addressing the Challenge of Its Design journal, March 2018

Emission Trading Schemes in China and the European Union, Achievements and Challenges journal, January 2018

Optimal subsidy in promoting distributed renewable energy generation based on policy benefit journal, June 2016

Comparative analysis of the regional contributions to carbon emissions in China journal, July 2016

Carbon tax, tourism CO 2 emissions and economic welfare journal, March 2018

Comparing policies to combat emissions leakage: Border carbon adjustments versus rebates journal, September 2012

How to win public support for a global carbon tax journal, January 2019

The Impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Regulated Firms: What Is the Evidence after Ten Years? journal, December 2015

What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study journal, February 2019

Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China journal, January 2015

Energy-tax changes and competitiveness: The role of adaptive capacity journal, March 2015

Lessons learned from China’s regional carbon market pilots journal, April 2017

Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis journal, September 2016

Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions: Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model journal, March 2013

Climate Policy & Corporate Behavior journal, October 2011

Carbon taxes, industrial production, welfare and the environment journal, March 2017

Exploring impact of carbon tax on China’s CO 2 reductions and provincial disparities journal, September 2017

The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis journal, March 2015

An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect journal, June 2010

Review on the costs and benefits of renewable energy power subsidy in China journal, September 2014

Carbon tariffs on Chinese exports: Emissions reduction, threat, or farce? journal, November 2012

Jobs and climate policy: Evidence from British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax journal, May 2017

How large are the impacts of carbon-motivated border tax adjustments on China and how to mitigate them? journal, December 2013

How Large are the Impacts of Carbon Motivated Border tax Adjustments?
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Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage
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How Effective are US Renewable Energy Subsidies in Cutting Greenhouse Gases?
journal, May 2014

Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-riding in International Climate Policy
journal, April 2015

Economic and environmental impact analysis of carbon tariffs on Chinese exports
journal, July 2015

Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China
journal, May 2017

Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
journal, September 2015

Salience of carbon taxes in the gasoline market
journal, November 2015

Border tax adjustments in the climate policy context: CO2 versus broad-based GHG emission targeting
journal, December 2012

Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?
journal, March 2014

The Impacts and Countermeasures of levying Carbon Tax in China under Low-carbon Economy
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Carbon tariffs and cooperative outcomes
journal, February 2014

The sustainability of urban renewal projects: a model for economic multi-criteria analysis
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The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy
journal, November 2010

The reform of the European energy tax directive: Exploring potential economic impacts in the EU27
journal, December 2014

Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors
journal, September 2014

Addressing the competitiveness effects of taxing carbon in China: domestic tax cuts versus border tax adjustments
journal, January 2016

Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend
journal, September 2019

Border Carbon Adjustments Based on Avoided Emissions: Addressing the Challenge of Its Design
journal, March 2018

Emission Trading Schemes in China and the European Union, Achievements and Challenges
journal, January 2018

Optimal subsidy in promoting distributed renewable energy generation based on policy benefit
journal, June 2016

Comparative analysis of the regional contributions to carbon emissions in China
journal, July 2016

Carbon tax, tourism CO 2 emissions and economic welfare
journal, March 2018

Comparing policies to combat emissions leakage: Border carbon adjustments versus rebates
journal, September 2012

How to win public support for a global carbon tax
journal, January 2019

The Impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on Regulated Firms: What Is the Evidence after Ten Years?
journal, December 2015

What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study
journal, February 2019

Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China
journal, January 2015

Energy-tax changes and competitiveness: The role of adaptive capacity
journal, March 2015

Lessons learned from China’s regional carbon market pilots
journal, April 2017

Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis
journal, September 2016

Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions: Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model
journal, March 2013

Climate Policy & Corporate Behavior
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Carbon taxes, industrial production, welfare and the environment
journal, March 2017

Exploring impact of carbon tax on China’s CO 2 reductions and provincial disparities
journal, September 2017

The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis
journal, March 2015

An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect
journal, June 2010

Review on the costs and benefits of renewable energy power subsidy in China
journal, September 2014

Carbon tariffs on Chinese exports: Emissions reduction, threat, or farce?
journal, November 2012

Jobs and climate policy: Evidence from British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax
journal, May 2017

How large are the impacts of carbon-motivated border tax adjustments on China and how to mitigate them?
journal, December 2013