Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals
Abstract
A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.
- Authors:
-
[2];
[2];
[2];
[3];
[3];
[3];
[4];
[4]
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Global Energy Monitor, San Francisco, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1608560
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-ACT-SA-10417
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; climate-change mitigation; climate-change policy; energy infrastructure; energy modelling; energy policy
Citation Formats
Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Hultman, Nathan, Edwards, Morgan R., He, Linlang, Sen, Arijit, Surana, Kavita, McJeon, Haewon, Iyer, Gokul, Patel, Pralit, Yu, Sha, Nace, Ted, and Shearer, Christine. Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3.
Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Hultman, Nathan, Edwards, Morgan R., He, Linlang, Sen, Arijit, Surana, Kavita, McJeon, Haewon, Iyer, Gokul, Patel, Pralit, Yu, Sha, Nace, Ted, & Shearer, Christine. Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3
Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Hultman, Nathan, Edwards, Morgan R., He, Linlang, Sen, Arijit, Surana, Kavita, McJeon, Haewon, Iyer, Gokul, Patel, Pralit, Yu, Sha, Nace, Ted, and Shearer, Christine. Fri .
"Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1608560.
@article{osti_1608560,
title = {Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals},
author = {Cui, Ryna Yiyun and Hultman, Nathan and Edwards, Morgan R. and He, Linlang and Sen, Arijit and Surana, Kavita and McJeon, Haewon and Iyer, Gokul and Patel, Pralit and Yu, Sha and Nace, Ted and Shearer, Christine},
abstractNote = {A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Fri Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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