Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Abolt, Charles J.; Young, Michael H.; Atchley, Adam L.; Harp, Dylan R.; Coon, Ethan T.

doi:10.1029/2019JF005349

Title: Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Journal Article · 14 February 2020 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005349 · OSTI ID:1607283

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University of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
University of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO₂ and CH₄. In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1607283

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1634961; OSTI ID: 1996171

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-18-29244; LA-UR-19-28979

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Earth Surface, Vol. 125, Issue 3; ISSN 2169-9003

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 9 works

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Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons: Modeling Archive Abolt, Charles; Young, Michael; Atchley, Adam Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US) https://doi.org/10.5440/1561091	dataset	January 2019
Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons: Modeling Archive Abolt, Charles; Young, Michael; Atchley, Adam Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US) https://doi.org/10.5440/1561091	dataset	January 2019

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

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