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Title: Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Abstract

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban–rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. Furthermore, these findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response ofmore » spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [5]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [6]
  1. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  4. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
  5. Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou (China)
  6. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1607068
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 117; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher:
National Academy of Sciences
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; phenology; urbanization; temperature response; urban heat; island

Citation Formats

Meng, Lin, Mao, Jiafu, Zhou, Yuyu, Richardson, Andrew D., Lee, Xuhui, Thornton, Peter E., Ricciuto, Daniel M., Li, Xuecao, Dai, Yongjiu, Shi, Xiaoying, and Jia, Gensuo. Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117.
Meng, Lin, Mao, Jiafu, Zhou, Yuyu, Richardson, Andrew D., Lee, Xuhui, Thornton, Peter E., Ricciuto, Daniel M., Li, Xuecao, Dai, Yongjiu, Shi, Xiaoying, & Jia, Gensuo. Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117
Meng, Lin, Mao, Jiafu, Zhou, Yuyu, Richardson, Andrew D., Lee, Xuhui, Thornton, Peter E., Ricciuto, Daniel M., Li, Xuecao, Dai, Yongjiu, Shi, Xiaoying, and Jia, Gensuo. Mon . "Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1607068.
@article{osti_1607068,
title = {Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States},
author = {Meng, Lin and Mao, Jiafu and Zhou, Yuyu and Richardson, Andrew D. and Lee, Xuhui and Thornton, Peter E. and Ricciuto, Daniel M. and Li, Xuecao and Dai, Yongjiu and Shi, Xiaoying and Jia, Gensuo},
abstractNote = {Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban–rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. Furthermore, these findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1911117117},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = 8,
volume = 117,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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