The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection

Ou, Shawn; Lin, Zhenhong; Xu, Guoquan; Hao, Xu; Li, Hongwei; Gao, Zhiming; He, Xin; Przesmitzki, Steven V.; Bouchard, Jessey

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.116544

Title: The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection

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Abstract

This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation and pricing mechanisms in China, this study establishes the statistical relationship between the retailed gasoline prices in China and international crude oil prices using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM, and threshold asymmetric ECM are provided. By adopting the ECMs, the study projects the retailed gasoline prices from 2019 to 2050 based on the international crude oil prices from the Annual Energy Outlook provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The results show that the asymmetric responsiveness and the threshold effect exist under current Chinese oil pricing policy with a lag of one month or even shorter in gasoline price adjustment. Moreover, the analysis informs one that, in the short-run, the retailed gasoline prices in China are more sensitive to international crude oil price increases; while in the long-run, the retailed gasoline prices are more sensitive to international crude oil price decreases. Compared with the national average gasoline price in China of 6.04 CNY/Liter in 2017, the national average gasoline price in China is projected to be about 7.64 CNY/Liter (2017 dollar)more » by 2050.« less

Authors:

^[1];

^[1]; Xu, Guoquan ^[2]; Hao, Xu ^[3]; Li, Hongwei ^[4];

^[1]; He, Xin ^[5]; Przesmitzki, Steven V. ^[5]; Bouchard, Jessey ^[5]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Beijing Inst. of Technology (China)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin (China)
Aramco Services Company, Detroit, MI (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2019

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1606742

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1581828

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; 20182142001

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Energy (Oxford)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Energy (Oxford); Journal Volume: 191; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0360-5442

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Retailed gasoline prices; China; Error correction models; Annual energy outlook; Gasoline price projection

Citation Formats


                    Ou, Shawn, Lin, Zhenhong, Xu, Guoquan, Hao, Xu, Li, Hongwei, Gao, Zhiming, He, Xin, Przesmitzki, Steven V., and Bouchard, Jessey. The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.116544.

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                    Ou, Shawn, Lin, Zhenhong, Xu, Guoquan, Hao, Xu, Li, Hongwei, Gao, Zhiming, He, Xin, Przesmitzki, Steven V., & Bouchard, Jessey. The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116544

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                    Ou, Shawn, Lin, Zhenhong, Xu, Guoquan, Hao, Xu, Li, Hongwei, Gao, Zhiming, He, Xin, Przesmitzki, Steven V., and Bouchard, Jessey. Wed .  
"The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116544.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1606742.

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@article{osti_1606742,

  title        = {The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection},

  author       = {Ou, Shawn and Lin, Zhenhong and Xu, Guoquan and Hao, Xu and Li, Hongwei and Gao, Zhiming and He, Xin and Przesmitzki, Steven V. and Bouchard, Jessey},

  abstractNote = {This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation and pricing mechanisms in China, this study establishes the statistical relationship between the retailed gasoline prices in China and international crude oil prices using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM, and threshold asymmetric ECM are provided. By adopting the ECMs, the study projects the retailed gasoline prices from 2019 to 2050 based on the international crude oil prices from the Annual Energy Outlook provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The results show that the asymmetric responsiveness and the threshold effect exist under current Chinese oil pricing policy with a lag of one month or even shorter in gasoline price adjustment. Moreover, the analysis informs one that, in the short-run, the retailed gasoline prices in China are more sensitive to international crude oil price increases; while in the long-run, the retailed gasoline prices are more sensitive to international crude oil price decreases. Compared with the national average gasoline price in China of 6.04 CNY/Liter in 2017, the national average gasoline price in China is projected to be about 7.64 CNY/Liter (2017 dollar) by 2050.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.energy.2019.116544},

  journal      = {Energy (Oxford)},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 191,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2019},

  month        = {Wed Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2019}

}

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