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Title: Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Abstract

Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply- and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996-2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change inmore » Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  2. Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
  3. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  4. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  5. encoord LLC, Edgewater,CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1605082
Report Number(s):
NREL-JA-5D00-72413
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; power system; climate change; wind; solar; Texas

Citation Formats

Craig, Michael, Jaramillo, Paulina, Hodge, Brian S, Nijssen, Bart, and Brancucci, Carlo. Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615.
Craig, Michael, Jaramillo, Paulina, Hodge, Brian S, Nijssen, Bart, & Brancucci, Carlo. Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615
Craig, Michael, Jaramillo, Paulina, Hodge, Brian S, Nijssen, Bart, and Brancucci, Carlo. Mon . "Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1605082.
@article{osti_1605082,
title = {Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas},
author = {Craig, Michael and Jaramillo, Paulina and Hodge, Brian S and Nijssen, Bart and Brancucci, Carlo},
abstractNote = {Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply- and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996-2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change in Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 2,
volume = 15,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {12}
}

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