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Title: Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This work offers a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. Yet, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.60 to -0.65 Wm -2, or -2.0 to -0.4 Wm -2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessmentmore » but shifted towards more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7];  [5];  [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [13]; ORCiD logo [14]; ORCiD logo [15]; ORCiD logo [16]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [7] more »; ORCiD logo [18];  [2]; ORCiD logo [15]; ORCiD logo [19]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [20]; ORCiD logo [21]; ORCiD logo [22];  [23]; ORCiD logo [24]; ORCiD logo [25];  [26]; ORCiD logo [4] « less
  1. Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK
  2. Institute for MeteorologyUniversität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
  3. Space and Atmospheric Physics GroupImperial College London London UK
  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
  5. Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oxford Oxford UK
  6. Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS Paris France
  7. School of Earth and EnvironmentUniversity of Leeds Leeds UK
  8. EPOC, UMR 5805, CNRS‐Université de Bordeaux Pessac France
  9. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique Paris France
  10. NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Boulder CO USA
  11. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany, Now at Institut für Geophysik und MeteorologieUniversität zu Köln Köln Germany
  12. Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of Leeds Leeds UK
  13. National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  14. CEMPSUniversity of Exeter Exeter UK, UK Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
  15. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
  16. CEMPSUniversity of Exeter Exeter UK
  17. Department of MeteorologyStockholm University Stockholm Sweden
  18. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research‐Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway
  19. Department of Global EcologyCarnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA, Now at Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt Germany
  20. Department of Applied Energy, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan, Now at Faculty of Science, Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesHokkaido University Sapporo Japan
  21. Climate Modelling and Air Pollution Section, Research and Development DepartmentNorwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway
  22. Brookhaven National Laboratory Environmental and Climate Sciences Department Upton NY USA
  23. Institute for MeteorologyUniversität Leipzig Leipzig Germany, Laboratoire d'Optique AtmosphériqueUniversité de Lille Villeneuve d'Ascq France
  24. Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Oslo Oslo Norway
  25. Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK, Now at Institute of PhysicsUniversity of Tartu Tartu Estonia
  26. NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); European Research Council (ERC)
OSTI Identifier:
1604840
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1570661; OSTI ID: 1604842
Report Number(s):
[BNL-212193-2019-JAAM]
[Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[SC0012704]
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
Additional Journal Information:
[Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Journal Volume: 58 Journal Issue: 1]; Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Aerosol; Climate change; Radiative forcing; Aerosol‐radiation interaction; Aerosol‐cloud interaction

Citation Formats

Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B. Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2019RG000660.
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., & Stevens, B. Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. United States. doi:10.1029/2019RG000660.
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B. Sun . "Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change". United States. doi:10.1029/2019RG000660.
@article{osti_1604840,
title = {Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change},
author = {Bellouin, N. and Quaas, J. and Gryspeerdt, E. and Kinne, S. and Stier, P. and Watson‐Parris, D. and Boucher, O. and Carslaw, K. S. and Christensen, M. and Daniau, A. ‐L. and Dufresne, J. ‐L. and Feingold, G. and Fiedler, S. and Forster, P. and Gettelman, A. and Haywood, J. M. and Lohmann, U. and Malavelle, F. and Mauritsen, T. and McCoy, D. T. and Myhre, G. and Mülmenstädt, J. and Neubauer, D. and Possner, A. and Rugenstein, M. and Sato, Y. and Schulz, M. and Schwartz, S. E. and Sourdeval, O. and Storelvmo, T. and Toll, V. and Winker, D. and Stevens, B.},
abstractNote = {Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This work offers a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. Yet, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.60 to -0.65 Wm-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 Wm-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted towards more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.},
doi = {10.1029/2019RG000660},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics (1985)},
number = [1],
volume = [58],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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DOI: 10.1029/2019RG000660

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Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction: ATTRIBUTION UNCERTAINTY
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Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
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Impact of aerosols on ice crystal size
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A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES
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CALIPSO (IIR–CALIOP) retrievals of cirrus cloud ice-particle concentrations
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Relationship between aerosol and cloud fraction over Australia: AEROSOL EFFECTS ON CLOUD FRACTION
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Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations
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The Convolution of Dynamics and Moisture with the Presence of Shortwave Absorbing Aerosols over the Southeast Atlantic
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Unveiling aerosol–cloud interactions – Part 2: Minimising the effects of aerosol swelling and wet scavenging in ECHAM6-HAM2 for comparison to satellite data
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Aerosol effect on the warm rain formation process: Satellite observations and modeling: AEROSOL EFFECT ON PRECIPITATION
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First measurements of the Twomey indirect effect using ground-based remote sensors: SURFACE REMOTE SENSING OF THE INDIRECT EFFECT
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First interactive simulations of cirrus clouds formed by homogeneous freezing in the ECHAM general circulation model: CIRRUS PARAMETERIZATION FOR GCMS
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Aircraft soot indirect effect on large-scale cirrus clouds: Is the indirect forcing by aircraft soot positive or negative?: AIRCRAFT SOOT INDIRECT EFFECT
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Effects of Aerosols on Cloud Albedo: Evaluation of Twomey’s Parameterization of Cloud Susceptibility Using Measurements of Ship Tracks
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Satellite-observed relationships between aerosol and trade-wind cumulus cloud properties over the Indian Ocean: AEROSOL-CUMULUS CLOUD RELATIONSHIPS
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An observational study of the relationship between cloud, aerosol and meteorology in broken low-level cloud conditions
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Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions
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Aerosol optical depth increase in partly cloudy conditions: AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH INCREASE IN CLOUDS
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Identification of anthropogenic and natural dust sources using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue level 2 data
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Assessment of simulated aerosol effective radiative forcings in the terrestrial spectrum: AEROSOL TERRESTRIAL EFFECTIVE FORCING
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Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity
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Locally Enhanced Aerosols Over a Shipping Lane Produce Convective Invigoration but Weak Overall Indirect Effects in Cloud-Resolving Simulations
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Toward a minimal representation of aerosols in climate models: description and evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5
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Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes: Lightning Over Shipping Lanes
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The global 3-D distribution of tropospheric aerosols as characterized by CALIOP
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Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon
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Regime-based analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions: REGIME-BASED AEROSOL-CLOUD INTERACTIONS
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The first aerosol indirect effect quantified through airborne remote sensing during VOCALS-REx
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Comparison of Measurements of Cloud Droplets and Cloud Nuclei
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Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud fraction: AEROSOLS AND CLOUD FRACTION
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Volcano and Ship Tracks Indicate Excessive Aerosol-Induced Cloud Water Increases in a Climate Model: CLOUD WATER RESPONSE TO AEROSOLS
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A long-term study of aerosol–cloud interactions and their radiative effect at the Southern Great Plains using ground-based measurements
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Ultraclean Layers and Optically Thin Clouds in the Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition. Part I: Observations
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Contrasting the impact of aerosols at northern and southern midlatitudes on heterogeneous ice formation: AEROSOL EFFECT ON ICE FORMATION
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Observational evidence of aerosol enhancement of lightning activity and convective invigoration: AEROSOL ENHANCEMENT OF LIGHTNING
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Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)
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ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE: Climate Forcing by Aerosol--a Hazy Picture
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AERONET—A Federated Instrument Network and Data Archive for Aerosol Characterization
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A parameterization of cirrus cloud formation: Heterogeneous freezing
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Spatial Representativeness Error in the Ground-Level Observation Networks for Black Carbon Radiation Absorption
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A less dusty future?: A LESS DUSTY FUTURE?
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Toward reduction of the uncertainties in climate sensitivity due to cloud processes using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model
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On smoke suppression of clouds in Amazonia
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Ship track observations of a reduced shortwave aerosol indirect effect in mixed-phase clouds: Ice-Cloud Indirect Effect in Ship-tracks
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Satellite observations of the impact of weak volcanic activity on marine clouds
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Measurement of the Effect of Amazon Smoke on Inhibition of Cloud Formation
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Soot and smoke aerosol may not warm climate: SOOT AND SMOKE AEROSOL MAY NOT WARM CLIMATE
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Precipitation driving of droplet concentration variability in marine low clouds: PRECIPITATION DRIVING OF DROP CONC
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