Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Bellouin, N.; Quaas, J.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Kinne, S.; Stier, P.; Watson‐Parris, D.; Boucher, O.; Carslaw, K. S.; Christensen, M.; Daniau, A. ‐L.; Dufresne, J. ‐L.; Feingold, G.; Fiedler, S.; Forster, P.; Gettelman, A.; Haywood, J. M.; Lohmann, U.; Malavelle, F.; Mauritsen, T.; McCoy, D. T.; Myhre, G.; Mülmenstädt, J.; Neubauer, D.; Possner, A.; Rugenstein, M.; Sato, Y.; Schulz, M.; Schwartz, S. E.; Sourdeval, O.; Storelvmo, T.; Toll, V.; Winker, D.; Stevens, B.

doi:10.1029/2019RG000660

Title: Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This work offers a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. Yet, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.60 to -0.65 Wm^-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 Wm^-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shiftedmore »« less

Authors:

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Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
Space and Atmospheric Physics Group Imperial College London London UK
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK
Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS Paris France
School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK
EPOC, UMR 5805, CNRS‐Université de Bordeaux Pessac France
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique Paris France
NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Boulder CO USA
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany, Now at Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie Universität zu Köln Köln Germany
Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK
National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK, UK Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK
Department of Meteorology Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research‐Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway
Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA, Now at Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences Goethe University Frankfurt Germany
Department of Applied Energy, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan, Now at Faculty of Science, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan
Climate Modelling and Air Pollution Section, Research and Development Department Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway
Brookhaven National Laboratory Environmental and Climate Sciences Department Upton NY USA
Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany, Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique Université de Lille Villeneuve d'Ascq France
Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Oslo Norway
Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK, Now at Institute of Physics University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA

Publication Date:: 2020-03-16

Research Org.:: Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); European Research Council (ERC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1604840

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1570661; OSTI ID: 1604842

Report Number(s):: BNL-212193-2019-JAAM
Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012704

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Reviews of Geophysics (1985)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Journal Volume: 58 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Aerosol; Climate change; Radiative forcing; Aerosol‐radiation interaction; Aerosol‐cloud interaction

Citation Formats


                    Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B. Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.  United States: N. p., 2020. 
Web.  doi:10.1029/2019RG000660.

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                    Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., & Stevens, B. Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660

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                    Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐L., Dufresne, J. ‐L., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J. M., Lohmann, U., Malavelle, F., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D. T., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S. E., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B. Mon .  
"Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660.

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@article{osti_1604840,

  title        = {Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change},

  author       = {Bellouin, N. and Quaas, J. and Gryspeerdt, E. and Kinne, S. and Stier, P. and Watson‐Parris, D. and Boucher, O. and Carslaw, K. S. and Christensen, M. and Daniau, A. ‐L. and Dufresne, J. ‐L. and Feingold, G. and Fiedler, S. and Forster, P. and Gettelman, A. and Haywood, J. M. and Lohmann, U. and Malavelle, F. and Mauritsen, T. and McCoy, D. T. and Myhre, G. and Mülmenstädt, J. and Neubauer, D. and Possner, A. and Rugenstein, M. and Sato, Y. and Schulz, M. and Schwartz, S. E. and Sourdeval, O. and Storelvmo, T. and Toll, V. and Winker, D. and Stevens, B.},

  abstractNote = {Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This work offers a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. Yet, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.60 to -0.65 Wm-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 Wm-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted towards more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.},

  doi          = {10.1029/2019RG000660},

  journal      = {Reviews of Geophysics (1985)},

  number       = 1,

  volume       = 58,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2020},

  month        = {3}

}

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Title: Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract

Citation Formats

Uncertainty from the choice of microphysics scheme in convection-permitting models significantly exceeds aerosol effects journal, January 2017

Reply to “Comment on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’” journal, August 2017

Clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing effects based on multi-site AERONET observations over Europe journal, December 2006

The sulfate-CCN-cloud albedo effect. journal, July 1995

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On the precipitation susceptibility of clouds to aerosol perturbations journal, January 2009

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An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms: ALTERNATIVE TO RADIATIVE FORCING journal, October 2003

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Efficacy of climate forcings journal, January 2005

Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Model description and comparison to observations journal, January 2008

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice journal, January 2014

Water vapour affects both rain and aerosol optical depth journal, December 2012

Can the direct and semi-direct aerosol effect compete with the indirect effect on a global scale? journal, January 2001

A Model for the Spectral Albedo of Snow. II: Snow Containing Atmospheric Aerosols journal, December 1980

Microphysical and macrophysical responses of marine stratocumulus polluted by underlying ships: Evidence of cloud deepening journal, January 2011

How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect journal, September 2014

Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness journal, September 1989

Can aerosol decrease cloud lifetime? journal, January 2009

Further evidence of important environmental information content in red-to-green ratios as depicted in paintings by great masters journal, January 2014

Direct shortwave forcing of climate by the anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity journal, January 1995

An analysis of aeolian dust in climate models: AEOLIAN DUST IN CMIP5 journal, August 2014

Radiative forcing by aerosols as derived from the AeroCom present-day and pre-industrial simulations journal, January 2006

Comment on “Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing” journal, August 2017

A synthesis of single scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosol over southern Africa during SAFARI 2000 journal, January 2007

On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change journal, December 2001

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Control of Earth Radiation and Latent Heat Release Budgets journal, December 2006

Climate impacts of ice nucleation: ICE NUCLEATION journal, October 2012

A possible correlation between satellite-derived cloud and aerosol microphysical parameters journal, April 2001

An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 journal, January 2009

Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes: RADIATIVE EFFECTS OF MODIS CLOUD REGIMES journal, March 2016

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks journal, October 2015

Ice crystal number concentration estimates from lidar–radar satellite remote sensing – Part 1: Method and evaluation journal, January 2018

The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean journal, January 2013

The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds journal, July 1977

The Impact of Process‐Based Warm Rain Constraints on the Aerosol Indirect Effect journal, October 2018

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Putting the clouds back in aerosol–cloud interactions journal, January 2015

Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols journal, January 1992

An Evaluation of the Shortwave Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Using CALIOP and MODIS Observations journal, January 2018

Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing journal, June 2015

The semi-direct aerosol effect: Impact of absorbing aerosols on marine stratocumulus journal, April 2004

Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud liquid water path journal, January 2019

Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing journal, August 2018

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Three Different Behaviors of Liquid Water Path of Water Clouds in Aerosol–Cloud Interactions journal, February 2002

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Anomalous Cloud Lines journal, November 1966

The susceptibility of ice formation in upper tropospheric clouds to insoluble aerosol components journal, August 1997

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Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon journal, January 2014

Uncertainty from the choice of microphysics scheme in convection-permitting models significantly exceeds aerosol effects
journal, January 2017

Reply to “Comment on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’”
journal, August 2017

Clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing effects based on multi-site AERONET observations over Europe
journal, December 2006

The sulfate-CCN-cloud albedo effect.
journal, July 1995

Evaluation of the aerosol indirect effect in marine stratocumulus clouds: Droplet number, size, liquid water path, and radiative impact
journal, January 2005

Aerosol indirect effect over the Indian Ocean
journal, January 2006

Spatial and Seasonal Trends in Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol Tracers and Water-Soluble Organic Carbon in the Southeastern United States
journal, July 2008

Cloud Microphysical Properties, Processes, and Rainfall Estimation Opportunities
journal, August 2003

On the precipitation susceptibility of clouds to aerosol perturbations
journal, January 2009

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
journal, January 2016

An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms: ALTERNATIVE TO RADIATIVE FORCING
journal, October 2003

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing: SATELLITE-ESTIMATE OF AEROSOL FORCINGS
journal, March 2008

The role of adiabaticity in the aerosol first indirect effect: THE ROLE OF ADIABATICITY
journal, March 2008

Evolution of nanoparticle size and mixing state near the point of emission
journal, April 2004

Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results: AEROSOL PROFILES IN AEROCOM II GCM
journal, June 2016

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

Cloud droplet sedimentation, entrainment efficiency, and subtropical stratocumulus albedo
journal, January 2007

Efficacy of climate forcings
journal, January 2005

Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Model description and comparison to observations
journal, January 2008

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice
journal, January 2014

Water vapour affects both rain and aerosol optical depth
journal, December 2012

Can the direct and semi-direct aerosol effect compete with the indirect effect on a global scale?
journal, January 2001

A Model for the Spectral Albedo of Snow. II: Snow Containing Atmospheric Aerosols
journal, December 1980

Microphysical and macrophysical responses of marine stratocumulus polluted by underlying ships: Evidence of cloud deepening
journal, January 2011

How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect
journal, September 2014

Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness
journal, September 1989

Can aerosol decrease cloud lifetime?
journal, January 2009

Further evidence of important environmental information content in red-to-green ratios as depicted in paintings by great masters
journal, January 2014

Direct shortwave forcing of climate by the anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity
journal, January 1995

An analysis of aeolian dust in climate models: AEOLIAN DUST IN CMIP5
journal, August 2014

Radiative forcing by aerosols as derived from the AeroCom present-day and pre-industrial simulations
journal, January 2006

Comment on “Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing”
journal, August 2017

A synthesis of single scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosol over southern Africa during SAFARI 2000
journal, January 2007

On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change
journal, December 2001

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Control of Earth Radiation and Latent Heat Release Budgets
journal, December 2006

Climate impacts of ice nucleation: ICE NUCLEATION
journal, October 2012

A possible correlation between satellite-derived cloud and aerosol microphysical parameters
journal, April 2001

An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950
journal, January 2009

Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes: RADIATIVE EFFECTS OF MODIS CLOUD REGIMES
journal, March 2016

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks
journal, October 2015

Ice crystal number concentration estimates from lidar–radar satellite remote sensing – Part 1: Method and evaluation
journal, January 2018

The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean
journal, January 2013

The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds
journal, July 1977

The Impact of Process‐Based Warm Rain Constraints on the Aerosol Indirect Effect
journal, October 2018

Higher-Order Turbulence Closure and Its Impact on Climate Simulations in the Community Atmosphere Model
journal, December 2013

Putting the clouds back in aerosol–cloud interactions
journal, January 2015

Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols
journal, January 1992

An Evaluation of the Shortwave Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Using CALIOP and MODIS Observations
journal, January 2018

Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing
journal, June 2015

The semi-direct aerosol effect: Impact of absorbing aerosols on marine stratocumulus
journal, April 2004

Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud liquid water path
journal, January 2019

Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
journal, August 2018

Heterogeneous ice nucleation on atmospheric aerosols: a review of results from laboratory experiments
journal, January 2012

Links between satellite-retrieved aerosol and precipitation
journal, January 2014

Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
journal, January 2018

Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission: SOIL DUST EMISSIONS AND LAND USE
journal, March 2004

Timescale analysis of aerosol sensitivity during homogeneous freezing and implications for upper tropospheric water vapor budgets: TIMESCALE ANALYSIS OF AEROSOL SENSITIVITY
journal, May 2008

Reconstructions of biomass burning from sediment-charcoal records to improve data–model comparisons
journal, January 2016

Tropospheric Aerosol Climate Forcing in Clear-Sky Satellite Observations over the Oceans
journal, February 1999

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents
journal, November 2018

Aerosol indirect effect dictated by liquid clouds: AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECT
journal, December 2016

Intercomparison of models representing direct shortwave radiative forcing by sulfate aerosols
journal, July 1998

Advanced Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics for Global Models. Part I: Off-Line Tests and Comparison with Other Schemes
journal, February 2015

Simulation of climate response to aerosol direct and indirect effects with aerosol transport-radiation model
journal, January 2005

On the Limits of CALIOP for Constraining Modeled Free Tropospheric Aerosol
journal, September 2018

Decrease in radiative forcing by organic aerosol nucleation, climate, and land use change
journal, January 2019

Aerosol invigoration and restructuring of Atlantic convective clouds: AEROSOL RESTRUCTURING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
journal, July 2005

Aerosol and physical atmosphere model parameters are both important sources of uncertainty in aerosol ERF
journal, January 2018

MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies: MAC-v1 for Climate Studies
journal, October 2013

Quantification of Monthly Mean Regional-Scale Albedo of Marine Stratiform Clouds in Satellite Observations and GCMs
journal, October 2011

Impact of Saharan dust on North Atlantic marine stratocumulus clouds: importance of the semidirect effect
journal, January 2017

Three Different Behaviors of Liquid Water Path of Water Clouds in Aerosol–Cloud Interactions
journal, February 2002

Satellite-based estimate of global aerosol–cloud radiative forcing by marine warm clouds
journal, August 2014

Anomalous Cloud Lines
journal, November 1966

The susceptibility of ice formation in upper tropospheric clouds to insoluble aerosol components
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