Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change

Bellouin, N.; Quaas, J.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Kinne, S.; Stier, P.; Watson‐Parris, D.; Boucher, O.; Carslaw, K. S.; Christensen, M.; Daniau, A. ‐L.; Dufresne, J. ‐L.; Feingold, G.; Fiedler, S.; Forster, P.; Gettelman, A.; Haywood, J. M.; Lohmann, U.; Malavelle, F.; Mauritsen, T.; McCoy, D. T.; Myhre, G.; Mülmenstädt, J.; Neubauer, D.; Possner, A.; Rugenstein, M.; Sato, Y.; Schulz, M.; Schwartz, S. E.; Sourdeval, O.; Storelvmo, T.; Toll, V.; Winker, D.; Stevens, B.

doi:10.1029/2019RG000660

Title: Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change

Journal Article · 01 November 2019 · Reviews of Geophysics (1985)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660 · OSTI ID:1604840

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Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
Universität Leipzig (Germany)
Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris (France)
Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris (France); Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
CEMPS, University of Exeter Exeter UK; UK Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich Zurich Switzerland
CEMPS, University of Exeter Exeter UK
Department of MeteorologyStockholm University Stockholm Sweden
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds Leeds UK
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research‐‐Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
Department of Global EcologyCarnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA; Now at Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt/Main Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
Department of Applied EnergyGraduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan; Now at Faculty of Science, Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesHokkaido University Sapporo Japan
Climate Modelling and Air Pollution Section, Research and Development DepartmentNorwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway
Brookhaven National Laboratory Environmental &, Climate Sciences Department Upton NY USA
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany; Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, Université de Lille Villeneuve d'Ascq Cedex France
Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Oslo Norway
Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK; Now at Institute of PhysicsUniversity of Tartu Tartu Estonia
NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA United States

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This work offers a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. Yet, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.60 to -0.65 Wm^-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 Wm^-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted towards more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

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Research Organization:: Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); European Research Council (ERC); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012704

OSTI ID:: 1604840

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1570661; OSTI ID: 1604842

Report Number(s):: BNL-212193-2019-JAAM

Journal Information:: Reviews of Geophysics (1985), Vol. 58, Issue 1; ISSN 8755-1209

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 340 works

Citation information provided by
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Impact of aerosols on ice crystal size Zhao, Bin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Gu, Yu Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1065-2018	journal	January 2018
Aircraft soot indirect effect on large-scale cirrus clouds: Is the indirect forcing by aircraft soot positive or negative?: AIRCRAFT SOOT INDIRECT EFFECT Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021914	journal	October 2014
Decrease in radiative forcing by organic aerosol nucleation, climate, and land use change Zhu, Jialei; Penner, Joyce E.; Yu, Fangqun Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08407-7	journal	January 2019
Smoke and Clouds above the Southeast Atlantic: Upcoming Field Campaigns Probe Absorbing Aerosol’s Impact on Climate Zuidema, Paquita; Redemann, Jens; Haywood, James Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00082.1	journal	July 2016
Regional So2 Removal Simulations With Hadgem3-Ga4 Kasoar, Matthew; Shawki, Dilshad; Voulgarakis, Apostolos Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1300980	dataset	January 2018
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Analysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggests stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions Hasekamp, Otto P.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13372-2	journal	November 2019
Separating radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions and rapid cloud adjustments in the ECHAM–HAMMOZ aerosol–climate model using the method of partial radiative perturbations Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Salzmann, Marc Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15415-2019	journal	January 2019
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity Fiedler, Stephanie; Kinne, Stefan; Huang, Wan Ting Katty Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019	journal	January 2019

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