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Title: Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Abstract

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Finally, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [2];  [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [3];  [9]; ORCiD logo [10];  [11];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16];  [8] more »;  [15]; ORCiD logo [12];  [7]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [17];  [4] « less
  1. Griffith Univ., Southport, Queensland (Australia); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania (Australia); USGS Pacific Coast and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)
  2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania (Australia)
  3. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada)
  4. Griffith Univ., Southport, Queensland (Australia)
  5. IHE, Delft (Netherlands); Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal)
  6. Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria (Australia)
  7. National Oceanographic Centre, Liverpool (United Kingdom)
  8. Univ. of Cantabria, Santander (Spain)
  9. USGS Pacific Coast and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)
  10. European Commission, Ispra (Italy)
  11. Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
  12. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  13. Norwegian Meteorological Inst., Bergen (Norway)
  14. Norwegian Meteorological Inst., Bergen (Norway); Univ. of Bergen (Norway)
  15. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthact Centre for Materials and Coastal Research (Germany)
  16. Univ. Hamburg (Germany)
  17. Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Australian Research Council; MEXT, Japan; US Geological Survey (USGS)
OSTI Identifier:
1604702
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; DP160100738
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; climate-change impacts; ocean sciences; physical oceanography; projection and prediction

Citation Formats

Morim, Joao, Hemer, Mark, Wang, Xiaolan L., Cartwright, Nick, Trenham, Claire, Semedo, Alvaro, Young, Ian, Bricheno, Lucy, Camus, Paula, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Erikson, Li, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Mori, Nobuhito, Shimura, Tomoya, Timmermans, Ben, Aarnes, Ole, Breivik, Øyvind, Behrens, Arno, Dobrynin, Mikhail, Menendez, Melisa, Staneva, Joanna, Wehner, Michael, Wolf, Judith, Kamranzad, Bahareh, Webb, Adrean, Stopa, Justin, and Andutta, Fernando. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5.
Morim, Joao, Hemer, Mark, Wang, Xiaolan L., Cartwright, Nick, Trenham, Claire, Semedo, Alvaro, Young, Ian, Bricheno, Lucy, Camus, Paula, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Erikson, Li, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Mori, Nobuhito, Shimura, Tomoya, Timmermans, Ben, Aarnes, Ole, Breivik, Øyvind, Behrens, Arno, Dobrynin, Mikhail, Menendez, Melisa, Staneva, Joanna, Wehner, Michael, Wolf, Judith, Kamranzad, Bahareh, Webb, Adrean, Stopa, Justin, & Andutta, Fernando. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
Morim, Joao, Hemer, Mark, Wang, Xiaolan L., Cartwright, Nick, Trenham, Claire, Semedo, Alvaro, Young, Ian, Bricheno, Lucy, Camus, Paula, Casas-Prat, Mercè, Erikson, Li, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Mori, Nobuhito, Shimura, Tomoya, Timmermans, Ben, Aarnes, Ole, Breivik, Øyvind, Behrens, Arno, Dobrynin, Mikhail, Menendez, Melisa, Staneva, Joanna, Wehner, Michael, Wolf, Judith, Kamranzad, Bahareh, Webb, Adrean, Stopa, Justin, and Andutta, Fernando. Mon . "Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604702.
@article{osti_1604702,
title = {Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections},
author = {Morim, Joao and Hemer, Mark and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Cartwright, Nick and Trenham, Claire and Semedo, Alvaro and Young, Ian and Bricheno, Lucy and Camus, Paula and Casas-Prat, Mercè and Erikson, Li and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Mori, Nobuhito and Shimura, Tomoya and Timmermans, Ben and Aarnes, Ole and Breivik, Øyvind and Behrens, Arno and Dobrynin, Mikhail and Menendez, Melisa and Staneva, Joanna and Wehner, Michael and Wolf, Judith and Kamranzad, Bahareh and Webb, Adrean and Stopa, Justin and Andutta, Fernando},
abstractNote = {Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Finally, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 9,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}

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