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Title: Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions

Abstract

A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDA, Forest Service
OSTI Identifier:
1604009
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-19-30781
Journal ID: ISSN 2571-6255
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; DTRA1002725370; 17IA11221633164
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Fire
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2571-6255
Publisher:
MDPI
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; fire simulations; particle emissions; surrogate modeling

Citation Formats

Josephson, Alexander Jon, Holland, Troy Michael, Brambilla, Sara, Brown, Michael John, and Linn, Rodman Ray. Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3010004.
Josephson, Alexander Jon, Holland, Troy Michael, Brambilla, Sara, Brown, Michael John, & Linn, Rodman Ray. Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions. United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3010004
Josephson, Alexander Jon, Holland, Troy Michael, Brambilla, Sara, Brown, Michael John, and Linn, Rodman Ray. Tue . "Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions". United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3010004. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604009.
@article{osti_1604009,
title = {Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions},
author = {Josephson, Alexander Jon and Holland, Troy Michael and Brambilla, Sara and Brown, Michael John and Linn, Rodman Ray},
abstractNote = {A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.},
doi = {10.3390/fire3010004},
journal = {Fire},
number = 1,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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