skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

This content will become publicly available on March 10, 2021

Title: Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. CIRESUniversity of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USA, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Boulder CO USA
  2. NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Boulder CO USA
  3. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1603820
Grant/Contract Number:  
[0000238382]
Resource Type:
Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
[Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 47 Journal Issue: 5]; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Ding, Hui, Newman, Matthew, Alexander, Michael A., and Wittenberg, Andrew T. Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL086765.
Ding, Hui, Newman, Matthew, Alexander, Michael A., & Wittenberg, Andrew T. Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific. United States. doi:10.1029/2019GL086765.
Ding, Hui, Newman, Matthew, Alexander, Michael A., and Wittenberg, Andrew T. Mon . "Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific". United States. doi:10.1029/2019GL086765.
@article{osti_1603820,
title = {Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific},
author = {Ding, Hui and Newman, Matthew and Alexander, Michael A. and Wittenberg, Andrew T.},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086765},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = [5],
volume = [47],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
This content will become publicly available on March 10, 2021
Publisher's Version of Record

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors
journal, November 2012

  • Magnusson, Linus; Alonso-Balmaseda, Magdalena; Corti, Susanna
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 9-10
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1599-2

Indices of El Niño Evolution
journal, April 2001


Spring persistence, transition, and resurgence of El Niño
journal, December 2014

  • Lee, Sang‐Ki; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Chung, Eui‐Seok
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062484

STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions
journal, January 2002


A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction
journal, February 2013


Model Fidelity versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting
journal, September 2010


On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective
journal, August 2017


Mean-state dependence of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models
journal, July 2017


El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
journal, July 2018


Improved Simulations of Tropical Pacific Annual-Mean Climate in the GFDL FLOR and HiFLOR Coupled GCMs
journal, December 2018

  • Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001372

ENSO in the CMIP5 Simulations: Life Cycles, Diversity, and Responses to Climate Change
journal, January 2017


Multifield Analog Prediction of Short-Term Climate Fluctuations Using a Climate State vector
journal, October 1978


An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

  • Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction
journal, April 2014

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Min, Dughong; Infanti, Johnna M.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems
journal, February 2014


ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
journal, April 2013


ENSO Evolution and Teleconnections in IPCC’s Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Realistic Representation?
journal, September 2006

  • Joseph, Renu; Nigam, Sumant
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3846.1

The influence of systematic errors in the Southeast Pacific on ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled GCM
journal, April 2008


Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
journal, July 2017


Error compensation of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models and its influence on simulated ENSO dynamics
journal, December 2018


The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air–Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans
journal, August 2002


Nonlinear Zonal Wind Response to ENSO in the CMIP5 Models: Roles of the Zonal and Meridional Shift of the ITCZ/SPCZ and the Simulated Climatological Precipitation
journal, November 2015

  • Choi, Kit-Yan; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0211.1

A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO–mean state interaction
journal, April 2018


THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research
journal, September 2007

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Covey, Curt; Delworth, Thomas
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383

Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram
journal, April 2001

  • Taylor, Karl E.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D7
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000JD900719

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
journal, January 2003


Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model‐Analogs
journal, February 2019

  • Ding, Hui; Newman, Matthew; Alexander, Michael A.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018GL080598

Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Nino atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics
journal, February 2014


Atmospheric Predictability as Revealed by Naturally Occurring Analogues
journal, July 1969


Seasonal prediction of equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature using simple initialization and bias correction techniques
journal, March 2019

  • Dippe, Tina; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Ding, Hui
  • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 20, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/asl.898

Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs
journal, June 2016

  • Graham, Felicity S.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Brown, Jaclyn N.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 5-6
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3189-1

Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems
journal, October 2018

  • Scaife, Adam A.; Ferranti, Laura; Alves, Oscar
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.5855

Warm Pool and Cold Tongue El Niño Events as Simulated by the GFDL 2.1 Coupled GCM
journal, March 2010


Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?: Seasonal Predictability of Tropical SSTs
journal, August 2017

  • Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074088

Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
journal, June 1998

  • Trenberth, Kevin E.; Branstator, Grant W.; Karoly, David
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C7
  • DOI: 10.1029/97JC01444

Sea Surface Temperature Biases under the Stratus Cloud Deck in the Southeast Pacific Ocean in 19 IPCC AR4 Coupled General Circulation Models
journal, August 2011

  • Zheng, Yangxing; Shinoda, Toshiaki; Lin, Jia-Lin
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4172.1

The Double-ITCZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback Analysis
journal, September 2007


How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?
journal, June 2010


Skillful Climate Forecasts of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean Using Model-Analogs
journal, July 2018


Searching for analogues, how long must we wait?
journal, May 1994


Understanding El Niño in Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and Challenges
journal, March 2009

  • Guilyardi, Eric; Wittenberg, Andrew; Fedorov, Alexey
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2387.1

On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity
journal, November 2014


Precipitation Sensitivity to Local Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature
journal, November 2018

  • He, Jie; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0262.1

The importance of ENSO nonlinearities in tropical pacific response to external forcing
journal, December 2016

  • Karamperidou, Christina; Jin, Fei-Fei; Conroy, Jessica L.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 7-8
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3475-y

The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003


Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4
journal, December 2012

  • Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mogensen, Kristian; Weaver, Anthony T.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 139, Issue 674
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2063

Understanding ENSO Diversity
journal, June 2015

  • Capotondi, Antonietta; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Newman, Matthew
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1