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Title: Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

Abstract

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. Finally, this method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; « less
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Contributing Org.:
IceCube Collaboration
OSTI Identifier:
1603535
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 2019; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 1475-7516
Publisher:
Institute of Physics (IOP)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; analysis and statistical methods; simulation methods and programs; systematic effects

Citation Formats

Aartsen, M. G., Ackermann, M., Adams, J., Aguilar, J. A., Ahlers, M., Alispach, C., Atoum, B. Al, Andeen, K., Anderson, T., Ansseau, I., Anton, G., Argüelles, C., Auffenberg, J., Axani, S., Backes, P., Bagherpour, H., Bai, X., V., A. Balagopal, Barbano, A., Barwick, S. W., Bastian, B., Baum, V., Baur, S., Bay, R., Beatty, J. J., Becker, K. -H., Tjus, J. Becker, BenZvi, S., Berley, D., Bernardini, E., Besson, D. Z., Binder, G., Bindig, D., Blaufuss, E., Blot, S., Bohm, C., Börner, M., Böser, S., Botner, O., Böttcher, J., Bourbeau, E., Bourbeau, J., Bradascio, F., Braun, J., Bron, S., Brostean-Kaiser, J., Burgman, A., Buscher, J., Busse, R. S., Carver, T., Chen, C., Cheung, E., Chirkin, D., Choi, S., Clark, K., Classen, L., Coleman, A., Collin, G. H., Conrad, J. M., Coppin, P., Correa, P., Cowen, D. F., Cross, R., Dave, P., Clercq, C. De, DeLaunay, J. J., Dembinski, H., Deoskar, K., Ridder, S. De, Desiati, P., de Vries, K. D., de Wasseige, G., de With, M., DeYoung, T., Diaz, A., Díaz-Vélez, J. C., Dujmovic, H., Dunkman, M., Dvorak, E., Eberhardt, B., Ehrhardt, T., Eller, P., Engel, R., Evenson, P. A., Fahey, S., Fazely, A. R., Felde, J., Filimonov, K., Finley, C., Franckowiak, A., Friedman, E., Fritz, A., Gaisser, T. K., Gallagher, J., Ganster, E., Garrappa, S., Gerhardt, L., Ghorbani, K., Glauch, T., Glüsenkamp, T., Goldschmidt, A., Gonzalez, J. G., Grant, D., Griffith, Z., Griswold, S., Günder, M., Gündüz, M., Haack, C., Hallgren, A., Halve, L., Halzen, F., Hanson, K., Haungs, A., Hebecker, D., Heereman, D., Heix, P., Helbing, K., Hellauer, R., Henningsen, F., Hickford, S., Hignight, J., Hill, G. C., Hoffman, K. D., Hoffmann, R., Hoinka, T., Hokanson-Fasig, B., Hoshina, K., Huang, F., Huber, M., Huber, T., Hultqvist, K., Hünnefeld, M., Hussain, R., In, S., Iovine, N., Ishihara, A., Japaridze, G. S., Jeong, M., Jero, K., Jones, B. J. P., Jonske, F., Joppe, R., Kang, D., Kang, W., Kappes, A., Kappesser, D., Karg, T., Karl, M., Karle, A., Katz, U., Kauer, M., Kelley, J. L., Kheirandish, A., Kim, J., Kintscher, T., Kiryluk, J., Kittler, T., Klein, S. R., Koirala, R., Kolanoski, H., Köpke, L., Kopper, C., Kopper, S., Koskinen, D. J., Kowalski, M., Krings, K., Krückl, G., Kulacz, N., Kurahashi, N., Kyriacou, A., Labare, M., Lanfranchi, J. L., Larson, M. J., Lauber, F., Lazar, J. P., Leonard, K., Leszczyńska, A., Leuermann, M., Liu, Q. R., Lohfink, E., Mariscal, C. J. Lozano, Lu, L., Lucarelli, F., Lünemann, J., Luszczak, W., Lyu, Y., Ma, W. Y., Madsen, J., Maggi, G., Mahn, K. B. M., Makino, Y., Mallik, P., Mallot, K., Mancina, S., Mariş, I. C., Maruyama, R., Mase, K., Maunu, R., McNally, F., Meagher, K., Medici, M., Medina, A., Meier, M., Meighen-Berger, S., Menne, T., Merino, G., Meures, T., Micallef, J., Mockler, D., Momenté, G., Montaruli, T., Moore, R. W., Morse, R., Moulai, M., Muth, P., Nagai, R., Naumann, U., Neer, G., Niederhausen, H., Nowicki, S. C., Nygren, D. R., Pollmann, A. Obertacke, Oehler, M., Olivas, A., O'Murchadha, A., O'Sullivan, E., Palczewski, T., Pandya, H., Pankova, D. V., Park, N., Peiffer, P., Pérez de los Heros, C., Philippen, S., Pieloth, D., Pinat, E., Pizzuto, A., Plum, M., Porcelli, A., Price, P. B., Przybylski, G. T., Raab, C., Raissi, A., Rameez, M., Rauch, L., Rawlins, K., Rea, I. C., Reimann, R., Relethford, B., Renschler, M., Renzi, G., Resconi, E., Rhode, W., Richman, M., Robertson, S., Rongen, M., Rott, C., Ruhe, T., Ryckbosch, D., Rysewyk, D., Safa, I., Herrera, S. E. Sanchez, Sandrock, A., Sandroos, J., Santander, M., Sarkar, S., Sarkar, S., Satalecka, K., Schaufel, M., Schieler, H., Schlunder, P., Schmidt, T., Schneider, A., Schneider, J., Schröder, F. G., Schumacher, L., Sclafani, S., Seckel, D., Seunarine, S., Shefali, S., Silva, M., Snihur, R., Soedingrekso, J., Soldin, D., Song, M., Spiczak, G. M., Spiering, C., Stachurska, J., Stamatikos, M., Stanev, T., Stein, R., Steinmüller, P., Stettner, J., Steuer, A., Stezelberger, T., Stokstad, R. G., Stößl, A., Strotjohann, N. L., Stürwald, T., Stuttard, T., Sullivan, G. W., Taboada, I., Tenholt, F., Ter-Antonyan, S., Terliuk, A., Tilav, S., Tollefson, K., Tomankova, L., Tönnis, C., Toscano, S., Tosi, D., Trettin, A., Tselengidou, M., Tung, C. F., Turcati, A., Turcotte, R., Turley, C. F., Ty, B., Unger, E., Elorrieta, M. A. Unland, Usner, M., Vandenbroucke, J., Driessche, W. Van, Eijk, D. van, Eijndhoven, N. van, Vanheule, S., Santen, J. van, Vraeghe, M., Walck, C., Wallace, A., Wallraff, M., Wandkowsky, N., Watson, T. B., Weaver, C., Weindl, A., Weiss, M. J., Weldert, J., Wendt, C., Werthebach, J., Whelan, B. J., Whitehorn, N., Wiebe, K., Wiebusch, C. H., Wille, L., Williams, D. R., Wills, L., Wolf, M., Wood, J., Wood, T. R., Woschnagg, K., Wrede, G., Xu, D. L., Xu, X. W., Xu, Y., Yanez, J. P., Yodh, G., Yoshida, S., Yuan, T., and Zöcklein, M.. Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048.
Aartsen, M. G., Ackermann, M., Adams, J., Aguilar, J. A., Ahlers, M., Alispach, C., Atoum, B. Al, Andeen, K., Anderson, T., Ansseau, I., Anton, G., Argüelles, C., Auffenberg, J., Axani, S., Backes, P., Bagherpour, H., Bai, X., V., A. Balagopal, Barbano, A., Barwick, S. W., Bastian, B., Baum, V., Baur, S., Bay, R., Beatty, J. J., Becker, K. -H., Tjus, J. Becker, BenZvi, S., Berley, D., Bernardini, E., Besson, D. Z., Binder, G., Bindig, D., Blaufuss, E., Blot, S., Bohm, C., Börner, M., Böser, S., Botner, O., Böttcher, J., Bourbeau, E., Bourbeau, J., Bradascio, F., Braun, J., Bron, S., Brostean-Kaiser, J., Burgman, A., Buscher, J., Busse, R. S., Carver, T., Chen, C., Cheung, E., Chirkin, D., Choi, S., Clark, K., Classen, L., Coleman, A., Collin, G. H., Conrad, J. M., Coppin, P., Correa, P., Cowen, D. F., Cross, R., Dave, P., Clercq, C. De, DeLaunay, J. J., Dembinski, H., Deoskar, K., Ridder, S. De, Desiati, P., de Vries, K. D., de Wasseige, G., de With, M., DeYoung, T., Diaz, A., Díaz-Vélez, J. C., Dujmovic, H., Dunkman, M., Dvorak, E., Eberhardt, B., Ehrhardt, T., Eller, P., Engel, R., Evenson, P. A., Fahey, S., Fazely, A. R., Felde, J., Filimonov, K., Finley, C., Franckowiak, A., Friedman, E., Fritz, A., Gaisser, T. K., Gallagher, J., Ganster, E., Garrappa, S., Gerhardt, L., Ghorbani, K., Glauch, T., Glüsenkamp, T., Goldschmidt, A., Gonzalez, J. G., Grant, D., Griffith, Z., Griswold, S., Günder, M., Gündüz, M., Haack, C., Hallgren, A., Halve, L., Halzen, F., Hanson, K., Haungs, A., Hebecker, D., Heereman, D., Heix, P., Helbing, K., Hellauer, R., Henningsen, F., Hickford, S., Hignight, J., Hill, G. C., Hoffman, K. D., Hoffmann, R., Hoinka, T., Hokanson-Fasig, B., Hoshina, K., Huang, F., Huber, M., Huber, T., Hultqvist, K., Hünnefeld, M., Hussain, R., In, S., Iovine, N., Ishihara, A., Japaridze, G. S., Jeong, M., Jero, K., Jones, B. J. P., Jonske, F., Joppe, R., Kang, D., Kang, W., Kappes, A., Kappesser, D., Karg, T., Karl, M., Karle, A., Katz, U., Kauer, M., Kelley, J. L., Kheirandish, A., Kim, J., Kintscher, T., Kiryluk, J., Kittler, T., Klein, S. R., Koirala, R., Kolanoski, H., Köpke, L., Kopper, C., Kopper, S., Koskinen, D. J., Kowalski, M., Krings, K., Krückl, G., Kulacz, N., Kurahashi, N., Kyriacou, A., Labare, M., Lanfranchi, J. L., Larson, M. J., Lauber, F., Lazar, J. P., Leonard, K., Leszczyńska, A., Leuermann, M., Liu, Q. R., Lohfink, E., Mariscal, C. J. Lozano, Lu, L., Lucarelli, F., Lünemann, J., Luszczak, W., Lyu, Y., Ma, W. Y., Madsen, J., Maggi, G., Mahn, K. B. M., Makino, Y., Mallik, P., Mallot, K., Mancina, S., Mariş, I. C., Maruyama, R., Mase, K., Maunu, R., McNally, F., Meagher, K., Medici, M., Medina, A., Meier, M., Meighen-Berger, S., Menne, T., Merino, G., Meures, T., Micallef, J., Mockler, D., Momenté, G., Montaruli, T., Moore, R. W., Morse, R., Moulai, M., Muth, P., Nagai, R., Naumann, U., Neer, G., Niederhausen, H., Nowicki, S. C., Nygren, D. R., Pollmann, A. Obertacke, Oehler, M., Olivas, A., O'Murchadha, A., O'Sullivan, E., Palczewski, T., Pandya, H., Pankova, D. V., Park, N., Peiffer, P., Pérez de los Heros, C., Philippen, S., Pieloth, D., Pinat, E., Pizzuto, A., Plum, M., Porcelli, A., Price, P. B., Przybylski, G. T., Raab, C., Raissi, A., Rameez, M., Rauch, L., Rawlins, K., Rea, I. C., Reimann, R., Relethford, B., Renschler, M., Renzi, G., Resconi, E., Rhode, W., Richman, M., Robertson, S., Rongen, M., Rott, C., Ruhe, T., Ryckbosch, D., Rysewyk, D., Safa, I., Herrera, S. E. Sanchez, Sandrock, A., Sandroos, J., Santander, M., Sarkar, S., Sarkar, S., Satalecka, K., Schaufel, M., Schieler, H., Schlunder, P., Schmidt, T., Schneider, A., Schneider, J., Schröder, F. G., Schumacher, L., Sclafani, S., Seckel, D., Seunarine, S., Shefali, S., Silva, M., Snihur, R., Soedingrekso, J., Soldin, D., Song, M., Spiczak, G. M., Spiering, C., Stachurska, J., Stamatikos, M., Stanev, T., Stein, R., Steinmüller, P., Stettner, J., Steuer, A., Stezelberger, T., Stokstad, R. G., Stößl, A., Strotjohann, N. L., Stürwald, T., Stuttard, T., Sullivan, G. W., Taboada, I., Tenholt, F., Ter-Antonyan, S., Terliuk, A., Tilav, S., Tollefson, K., Tomankova, L., Tönnis, C., Toscano, S., Tosi, D., Trettin, A., Tselengidou, M., Tung, C. F., Turcati, A., Turcotte, R., Turley, C. F., Ty, B., Unger, E., Elorrieta, M. A. Unland, Usner, M., Vandenbroucke, J., Driessche, W. Van, Eijk, D. van, Eijndhoven, N. van, Vanheule, S., Santen, J. van, Vraeghe, M., Walck, C., Wallace, A., Wallraff, M., Wandkowsky, N., Watson, T. B., Weaver, C., Weindl, A., Weiss, M. J., Weldert, J., Wendt, C., Werthebach, J., Whelan, B. J., Whitehorn, N., Wiebe, K., Wiebusch, C. H., Wille, L., Williams, D. R., Wills, L., Wolf, M., Wood, J., Wood, T. R., Woschnagg, K., Wrede, G., Xu, D. L., Xu, X. W., Xu, Y., Yanez, J. P., Yodh, G., Yoshida, S., Yuan, T., & Zöcklein, M.. Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048
Aartsen, M. G., Ackermann, M., Adams, J., Aguilar, J. A., Ahlers, M., Alispach, C., Atoum, B. Al, Andeen, K., Anderson, T., Ansseau, I., Anton, G., Argüelles, C., Auffenberg, J., Axani, S., Backes, P., Bagherpour, H., Bai, X., V., A. Balagopal, Barbano, A., Barwick, S. W., Bastian, B., Baum, V., Baur, S., Bay, R., Beatty, J. J., Becker, K. -H., Tjus, J. Becker, BenZvi, S., Berley, D., Bernardini, E., Besson, D. Z., Binder, G., Bindig, D., Blaufuss, E., Blot, S., Bohm, C., Börner, M., Böser, S., Botner, O., Böttcher, J., Bourbeau, E., Bourbeau, J., Bradascio, F., Braun, J., Bron, S., Brostean-Kaiser, J., Burgman, A., Buscher, J., Busse, R. S., Carver, T., Chen, C., Cheung, E., Chirkin, D., Choi, S., Clark, K., Classen, L., Coleman, A., Collin, G. H., Conrad, J. M., Coppin, P., Correa, P., Cowen, D. F., Cross, R., Dave, P., Clercq, C. De, DeLaunay, J. J., Dembinski, H., Deoskar, K., Ridder, S. De, Desiati, P., de Vries, K. D., de Wasseige, G., de With, M., DeYoung, T., Diaz, A., Díaz-Vélez, J. C., Dujmovic, H., Dunkman, M., Dvorak, E., Eberhardt, B., Ehrhardt, T., Eller, P., Engel, R., Evenson, P. A., Fahey, S., Fazely, A. R., Felde, J., Filimonov, K., Finley, C., Franckowiak, A., Friedman, E., Fritz, A., Gaisser, T. K., Gallagher, J., Ganster, E., Garrappa, S., Gerhardt, L., Ghorbani, K., Glauch, T., Glüsenkamp, T., Goldschmidt, A., Gonzalez, J. G., Grant, D., Griffith, Z., Griswold, S., Günder, M., Gündüz, M., Haack, C., Hallgren, A., Halve, L., Halzen, F., Hanson, K., Haungs, A., Hebecker, D., Heereman, D., Heix, P., Helbing, K., Hellauer, R., Henningsen, F., Hickford, S., Hignight, J., Hill, G. C., Hoffman, K. D., Hoffmann, R., Hoinka, T., Hokanson-Fasig, B., Hoshina, K., Huang, F., Huber, M., Huber, T., Hultqvist, K., Hünnefeld, M., Hussain, R., In, S., Iovine, N., Ishihara, A., Japaridze, G. S., Jeong, M., Jero, K., Jones, B. J. P., Jonske, F., Joppe, R., Kang, D., Kang, W., Kappes, A., Kappesser, D., Karg, T., Karl, M., Karle, A., Katz, U., Kauer, M., Kelley, J. L., Kheirandish, A., Kim, J., Kintscher, T., Kiryluk, J., Kittler, T., Klein, S. R., Koirala, R., Kolanoski, H., Köpke, L., Kopper, C., Kopper, S., Koskinen, D. J., Kowalski, M., Krings, K., Krückl, G., Kulacz, N., Kurahashi, N., Kyriacou, A., Labare, M., Lanfranchi, J. L., Larson, M. J., Lauber, F., Lazar, J. P., Leonard, K., Leszczyńska, A., Leuermann, M., Liu, Q. R., Lohfink, E., Mariscal, C. J. Lozano, Lu, L., Lucarelli, F., Lünemann, J., Luszczak, W., Lyu, Y., Ma, W. Y., Madsen, J., Maggi, G., Mahn, K. B. M., Makino, Y., Mallik, P., Mallot, K., Mancina, S., Mariş, I. C., Maruyama, R., Mase, K., Maunu, R., McNally, F., Meagher, K., Medici, M., Medina, A., Meier, M., Meighen-Berger, S., Menne, T., Merino, G., Meures, T., Micallef, J., Mockler, D., Momenté, G., Montaruli, T., Moore, R. W., Morse, R., Moulai, M., Muth, P., Nagai, R., Naumann, U., Neer, G., Niederhausen, H., Nowicki, S. C., Nygren, D. R., Pollmann, A. Obertacke, Oehler, M., Olivas, A., O'Murchadha, A., O'Sullivan, E., Palczewski, T., Pandya, H., Pankova, D. V., Park, N., Peiffer, P., Pérez de los Heros, C., Philippen, S., Pieloth, D., Pinat, E., Pizzuto, A., Plum, M., Porcelli, A., Price, P. B., Przybylski, G. T., Raab, C., Raissi, A., Rameez, M., Rauch, L., Rawlins, K., Rea, I. C., Reimann, R., Relethford, B., Renschler, M., Renzi, G., Resconi, E., Rhode, W., Richman, M., Robertson, S., Rongen, M., Rott, C., Ruhe, T., Ryckbosch, D., Rysewyk, D., Safa, I., Herrera, S. E. Sanchez, Sandrock, A., Sandroos, J., Santander, M., Sarkar, S., Sarkar, S., Satalecka, K., Schaufel, M., Schieler, H., Schlunder, P., Schmidt, T., Schneider, A., Schneider, J., Schröder, F. G., Schumacher, L., Sclafani, S., Seckel, D., Seunarine, S., Shefali, S., Silva, M., Snihur, R., Soedingrekso, J., Soldin, D., Song, M., Spiczak, G. M., Spiering, C., Stachurska, J., Stamatikos, M., Stanev, T., Stein, R., Steinmüller, P., Stettner, J., Steuer, A., Stezelberger, T., Stokstad, R. G., Stößl, A., Strotjohann, N. L., Stürwald, T., Stuttard, T., Sullivan, G. W., Taboada, I., Tenholt, F., Ter-Antonyan, S., Terliuk, A., Tilav, S., Tollefson, K., Tomankova, L., Tönnis, C., Toscano, S., Tosi, D., Trettin, A., Tselengidou, M., Tung, C. F., Turcati, A., Turcotte, R., Turley, C. F., Ty, B., Unger, E., Elorrieta, M. A. Unland, Usner, M., Vandenbroucke, J., Driessche, W. Van, Eijk, D. van, Eijndhoven, N. van, Vanheule, S., Santen, J. van, Vraeghe, M., Walck, C., Wallace, A., Wallraff, M., Wandkowsky, N., Watson, T. B., Weaver, C., Weindl, A., Weiss, M. J., Weldert, J., Wendt, C., Werthebach, J., Whelan, B. J., Whitehorn, N., Wiebe, K., Wiebusch, C. H., Wille, L., Williams, D. R., Wills, L., Wolf, M., Wood, J., Wood, T. R., Woschnagg, K., Wrede, G., Xu, D. L., Xu, X. W., Xu, Y., Yanez, J. P., Yodh, G., Yoshida, S., Yuan, T., and Zöcklein, M.. Mon . "Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1603535.
@article{osti_1603535,
title = {Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube},
author = {Aartsen, M. G. and Ackermann, M. and Adams, J. and Aguilar, J. A. and Ahlers, M. and Alispach, C. and Atoum, B. Al and Andeen, K. and Anderson, T. and Ansseau, I. and Anton, G. and Argüelles, C. and Auffenberg, J. and Axani, S. and Backes, P. and Bagherpour, H. and Bai, X. and V., A. Balagopal and Barbano, A. and Barwick, S. W. and Bastian, B. and Baum, V. and Baur, S. and Bay, R. and Beatty, J. J. and Becker, K. -H. and Tjus, J. Becker and BenZvi, S. and Berley, D. and Bernardini, E. and Besson, D. Z. and Binder, G. and Bindig, D. and Blaufuss, E. and Blot, S. and Bohm, C. and Börner, M. and Böser, S. and Botner, O. and Böttcher, J. and Bourbeau, E. and Bourbeau, J. and Bradascio, F. and Braun, J. and Bron, S. and Brostean-Kaiser, J. and Burgman, A. and Buscher, J. and Busse, R. S. and Carver, T. and Chen, C. and Cheung, E. and Chirkin, D. and Choi, S. and Clark, K. and Classen, L. and Coleman, A. and Collin, G. H. and Conrad, J. M. and Coppin, P. and Correa, P. and Cowen, D. F. and Cross, R. and Dave, P. and Clercq, C. De and DeLaunay, J. J. and Dembinski, H. and Deoskar, K. and Ridder, S. De and Desiati, P. and de Vries, K. D. and de Wasseige, G. and de With, M. and DeYoung, T. and Diaz, A. and Díaz-Vélez, J. C. and Dujmovic, H. and Dunkman, M. and Dvorak, E. and Eberhardt, B. and Ehrhardt, T. and Eller, P. and Engel, R. and Evenson, P. A. and Fahey, S. and Fazely, A. R. and Felde, J. and Filimonov, K. and Finley, C. and Franckowiak, A. and Friedman, E. and Fritz, A. and Gaisser, T. K. and Gallagher, J. and Ganster, E. and Garrappa, S. and Gerhardt, L. and Ghorbani, K. and Glauch, T. and Glüsenkamp, T. and Goldschmidt, A. and Gonzalez, J. G. and Grant, D. and Griffith, Z. and Griswold, S. and Günder, M. and Gündüz, M. and Haack, C. and Hallgren, A. and Halve, L. and Halzen, F. and Hanson, K. and Haungs, A. and Hebecker, D. and Heereman, D. and Heix, P. and Helbing, K. and Hellauer, R. and Henningsen, F. and Hickford, S. and Hignight, J. and Hill, G. C. and Hoffman, K. D. and Hoffmann, R. and Hoinka, T. and Hokanson-Fasig, B. and Hoshina, K. and Huang, F. and Huber, M. and Huber, T. and Hultqvist, K. and Hünnefeld, M. and Hussain, R. and In, S. and Iovine, N. and Ishihara, A. and Japaridze, G. S. and Jeong, M. and Jero, K. and Jones, B. J. P. and Jonske, F. and Joppe, R. and Kang, D. and Kang, W. and Kappes, A. and Kappesser, D. and Karg, T. and Karl, M. and Karle, A. and Katz, U. and Kauer, M. and Kelley, J. L. and Kheirandish, A. and Kim, J. and Kintscher, T. and Kiryluk, J. and Kittler, T. and Klein, S. R. and Koirala, R. and Kolanoski, H. and Köpke, L. and Kopper, C. and Kopper, S. and Koskinen, D. J. and Kowalski, M. and Krings, K. and Krückl, G. and Kulacz, N. and Kurahashi, N. and Kyriacou, A. and Labare, M. and Lanfranchi, J. L. and Larson, M. J. and Lauber, F. and Lazar, J. P. and Leonard, K. and Leszczyńska, A. and Leuermann, M. and Liu, Q. R. and Lohfink, E. and Mariscal, C. J. Lozano and Lu, L. and Lucarelli, F. and Lünemann, J. and Luszczak, W. and Lyu, Y. and Ma, W. Y. and Madsen, J. and Maggi, G. and Mahn, K. B. M. and Makino, Y. and Mallik, P. and Mallot, K. and Mancina, S. and Mariş, I. C. and Maruyama, R. and Mase, K. and Maunu, R. and McNally, F. and Meagher, K. and Medici, M. and Medina, A. and Meier, M. and Meighen-Berger, S. and Menne, T. and Merino, G. and Meures, T. and Micallef, J. and Mockler, D. and Momenté, G. and Montaruli, T. and Moore, R. W. and Morse, R. and Moulai, M. and Muth, P. and Nagai, R. and Naumann, U. and Neer, G. and Niederhausen, H. and Nowicki, S. C. and Nygren, D. R. and Pollmann, A. Obertacke and Oehler, M. and Olivas, A. and O'Murchadha, A. and O'Sullivan, E. and Palczewski, T. and Pandya, H. and Pankova, D. V. and Park, N. and Peiffer, P. and Pérez de los Heros, C. and Philippen, S. and Pieloth, D. and Pinat, E. and Pizzuto, A. and Plum, M. and Porcelli, A. and Price, P. B. and Przybylski, G. T. and Raab, C. and Raissi, A. and Rameez, M. and Rauch, L. and Rawlins, K. and Rea, I. C. and Reimann, R. and Relethford, B. and Renschler, M. and Renzi, G. and Resconi, E. and Rhode, W. and Richman, M. and Robertson, S. and Rongen, M. and Rott, C. and Ruhe, T. and Ryckbosch, D. and Rysewyk, D. and Safa, I. and Herrera, S. E. Sanchez and Sandrock, A. and Sandroos, J. and Santander, M. and Sarkar, S. and Sarkar, S. and Satalecka, K. and Schaufel, M. and Schieler, H. and Schlunder, P. and Schmidt, T. and Schneider, A. and Schneider, J. and Schröder, F. G. and Schumacher, L. and Sclafani, S. and Seckel, D. and Seunarine, S. and Shefali, S. and Silva, M. and Snihur, R. and Soedingrekso, J. and Soldin, D. and Song, M. and Spiczak, G. M. and Spiering, C. and Stachurska, J. and Stamatikos, M. and Stanev, T. and Stein, R. and Steinmüller, P. and Stettner, J. and Steuer, A. and Stezelberger, T. and Stokstad, R. G. and Stößl, A. and Strotjohann, N. L. and Stürwald, T. and Stuttard, T. and Sullivan, G. W. and Taboada, I. and Tenholt, F. and Ter-Antonyan, S. and Terliuk, A. and Tilav, S. and Tollefson, K. and Tomankova, L. and Tönnis, C. and Toscano, S. and Tosi, D. and Trettin, A. and Tselengidou, M. and Tung, C. F. and Turcati, A. and Turcotte, R. and Turley, C. F. and Ty, B. and Unger, E. and Elorrieta, M. A. Unland and Usner, M. and Vandenbroucke, J. and Driessche, W. Van and Eijk, D. van and Eijndhoven, N. van and Vanheule, S. and Santen, J. van and Vraeghe, M. and Walck, C. and Wallace, A. and Wallraff, M. and Wandkowsky, N. and Watson, T. B. and Weaver, C. and Weindl, A. and Weiss, M. J. and Weldert, J. and Wendt, C. and Werthebach, J. and Whelan, B. J. and Whitehorn, N. and Wiebe, K. and Wiebusch, C. H. and Wille, L. and Williams, D. R. and Wills, L. and Wolf, M. and Wood, J. and Wood, T. R. and Woschnagg, K. and Wrede, G. and Xu, D. L. and Xu, X. W. and Xu, Y. and Yanez, J. P. and Yodh, G. and Yoshida, S. and Yuan, T. and Zöcklein, M.},
abstractNote = {Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. Finally, this method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope.},
doi = {10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048},
journal = {Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics},
number = 10,
volume = 2019,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {10}
}

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Figure 1 Figure 1: Left: Cartoon illustrating the difference between many discrete shifts in nuisance parameters (red squares) – each requiring an entire Monte Carlo set – compared with a single SnowStorm Monte Carlo (small blue dots). Right: the method of extracting independent gradients and building up a covariance matrix is accuratemore » in the limit that the analysis space is locally flat as the nuisance parameters are varied. This corresponds to linear perturbativity.« less

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