Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction
Abstract
Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly inmore »
- Authors:
-
- Space Science and Applications Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1603395
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1603398; OSTI ID: 1659193
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-26681
Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390; e2018SW002108
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Space Weather (Online) Journal Volume: 18 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics
Citation Formats
Morley, S. K. Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018SW002108.
Morley, S. K. Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002108
Morley, S. K. Fri .
"Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002108.
@article{osti_1603395,
title = {Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction},
author = {Morley, S. K.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.},
doi = {10.1029/2018SW002108},
journal = {Space Weather (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 18,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 06 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Fri Mar 06 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
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