Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Morley, Steven Karl

doi:10.1029/2018sw002108

Title: Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Journal Article · 22 December 2019 · Space Weather

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw002108 · OSTI ID:1603395

^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar-Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1603395

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1603398; OSTI ID: 1659193

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-19-26681; TRN: US2203401

Journal Information:: Space Weather, Vol. 18, Issue 3; ISSN 1542-7390

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 24 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (212)

Long-term radiation belt simulation with the VERB 3-D code: Comparison with CRRES observations: RADIATION BELT SIMULATION WITH VERB 3-D CODE Subbotin, D. A.; Shprits, Y. Y.; Ni, B. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 116, Issue A12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA017019	journal	December 2011
On a curious Appearance seen in the Sun Hodgson, R. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/20.1.15a	journal	November 1859
The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, L. Space Science Reviews, Vol. 212, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-017-0399-8	journal	August 2017
Sunjammer Eastwood, J. P.; Kataria, D. O.; McInnes, C. R. Weather, Vol. 70, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2438	journal	January 2015
Substorm evolution as revealed by THEMIS satellites and a global MHD simulation: SUBSTORM EVOLUTION El-Alaoui, Mostafa; Ashour-Abdalla, Maha; Walker, Raymond J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 114, Issue A8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014133	journal	August 2009
Vlasiator: First global hybrid-Vlasov simulations of Earth's foreshock and magnetosheath von Alfthan, S.; Pokhotelov, D.; Kempf, Y. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 120 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2014.08.012	journal	December 2014
Comparison of the aurora of September 1/2, 1859 with other great auroras Silverman, S. M. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 38, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2005.03.157	journal	January 2006
Classification and mean behavior of magnetic storms Loewe, C. A.; Prölss, G. W. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 102, Issue A7 https://doi.org/10.1029/96JA04020	journal	January 1997
A brief history of magnetospheric physics before the spaceflight era Stern, David P. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/RG027i001p00103	journal	January 1989
Characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields and their possible causes: Localized peak enhancements Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti A.; Bernabeu, Emanuel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065061	journal	September 2015
Probabilistic Weather Prediction with an Analog Ensemble Delle Monache, Luca; Eckel, F. Anthony; Rife, Daran L. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00281.1	journal	October 2013
The spatial structure of the oncoming solar wind at Earth and the shortcomings of a solar-wind monitor at L1 Borovsky, Joseph E. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 177 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.03.014	journal	October 2018
The Solar Wind at 1 AU During the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 23: Comparison of 3D Numerical Model Results with Observations Lee, C. O.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D. Solar Physics, Vol. 254, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-008-9280-y	journal	November 2008
Performance Modeling, Benchmarking and Simulation of High Performance Computing Systems Wright, Steven A. Future Generation Computer Systems, Vol. 92 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2018.11.020	journal	March 2019
Integration of the radiation belt environment model into the space weather modeling framework Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Fok, M. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 71, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.01.003	journal	November 2009
Space environment effects and satellite design Gubby, Robin; Evans, John Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 64, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00122-0	journal	November 2002
Global simulations of the three-dimensional magnetosphere Leboeuf, J. N.; Tajima, T.; Kennel, C. F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/GL008i003p00257	journal	March 1981
Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre: Verification of MOSWOC Forecasts Sharpe, M. A.; Murray, S. A. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001683	journal	October 2017
Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled Sun-to-Earth model: Challenges and first results: CISM 1.0 MODEL FIRST RESULTS Merkin, V. G.; Owens, M. J.; Spence, H. E. Space Weather, Vol. 5, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007SW000335	journal	December 2007
Modeling extreme “Carrington-type” space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations: NGWIRA ET AL. Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 119, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019661	journal	June 2014
Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes Pakhotin, I. P.; Drozdov, A. Y.; Shprits, Y. Y. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 119, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020238	journal	October 2014
Initial results from the coupled magnetosphere ionosphere thermosphere model: magnetospheric and ionospheric responses Wiltberger, M.; Wang, W.; Burns, A. G. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 66, Issue 15-16 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2004.03.026	journal	October 2004
Description of a Singular Appearance seen in the Sun on September 1, 1859 Carrington, R. C. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/20.1.13	journal	November 1859
Sensing global Birkeland currents with iridium® engineering magnetometer data Anderson, Brian J.; Takahashi, Kazue; Toth, Bruce A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL000094	journal	December 2000
The space-weather enterprise: past, present, and future Siscoe, George Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 62, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(00)00074-2	journal	September 2000
Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks Spiegelhalter, David J.; Riesch, Hauke Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1956 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0163	journal	December 2011
Integration of RAM-SCB into the Space Weather Modeling Framework Welling, Daniel T.; Toth, Gabor; Jordanova, Vania K. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 177 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2018.01.007	journal	October 2018
Sunjammer: Preliminary End-to-End Mission Design Heiligers, Jeannette; Diedrich, Ben; Derbes, William AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2014-4127	conference	August 2014
Optimizing Scientist Time through In Situ Visualization and Analysis Patchett, John; Ahrens, James IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1109/MCG.2018.011461533	journal	January 2018
Extreme relativistic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit: Analysis of GOES E > 2 MeV electrons Meredith, Nigel P.; Horne, Richard B.; Isles, John D. Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001143	journal	March 2015
The Origin of “Space Weather”: The Origin of “Space Weather” Cade, William B.; Chan-Park, Christina Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001141	journal	February 2015
Overview of In-Orbit Radiation Induced Spacecraft Anomalies Ecoffet, R. IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science, Vol. 60, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1109/TNS.2013.2262002	journal	June 2013
SWMF Global Magnetosphere Simulations of January 2005: Geomagnetic Indices and Cross-Polar Cap Potential: SWMF JANUARY 2005: INDICES AND CPCP Haiducek, John D.; Welling, Daniel T.; Ganushkina, Natalia Y. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001695	journal	December 2017
NAVSTAR: Global positioning system—Ten years later Parkinson, B. W.; Gilbert, S. W. Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 71, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1109/PROC.1983.12745	journal	January 1983
Cinema image-based in situ analysis and visualization of MPAS-ocean simulations O’Leary, Patrick; Ahrens, James; Jourdain, Sébastien Parallel Computing, Vol. 55 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.parco.2015.10.005	journal	July 2016
Ushering in a New Frontier in Geospace Through Data Science: NEW GEOSPACE FRONTIER McGranaghan, Ryan M.; Bhatt, Asti; Matsuo, Tomoko Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 122, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024835	journal	December 2017
Ionospheric control of the magnetosphere: conductance Ridley, A. J.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeZeeuw, D. L. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-567-2004	journal	January 2004
Spectral Approach to Plasma Kinetic Simulations Based on Hermite Decomposition in the Velocity Space Roytershteyn, Vadim; Delzanno, Gian Luca Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2018.00027	journal	August 2018
Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge: GEOSPACE CHALLENGE REANALYSIS Welling, D. T.; Anderson, B. J.; Crowley, G. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001505	journal	January 2017
The extreme magnetic storm of 1–2 September 1859 Tsurutani, B. T. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue A7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JA009504	journal	January 2003
An adaptive MHD method for global space weather simulations De Zeeuw, D. L.; Gombosi, T. I.; Groth, C. P. T. IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1109/27.902224	journal	January 2000
Going with the floe Wilkinson, Julia; Scott, Chris J.; Willis, David M. Astronomy & Geophysics, Vol. 57, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atw075	journal	March 2016
Event-specific chorus wave and electron seed population models in DREAM3D using the Van Allen Probes: Tu et al.: Event-specific chorus and seed electrons Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, G. S.; Chen, Y. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058819	journal	March 2014
Developing a quick guide on presenting data and uncertainty Lickiss, Matthew; Mulder, Kelsey J.; Black, Alison Weather, Vol. 72, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2998	journal	September 2017
Time dependence of substorm recurrence: An information-theoretic analysis Prichard, Dean; Borovsky, Joseph E.; Lemons, Patricia M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 101, Issue A7 https://doi.org/10.1029/95JA03419	journal	July 1996
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada Stepp, J. Carl; Wong, Ivan; Whitney, John Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586169	journal	February 2001
Satellite Navigation for Aviation in 2025 Blanch, Juan; Walter, Todd; Enge, Per Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 100, Issue Special Centennial Issue https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2012.2190154	journal	May 2012
Advances in Space Weather Ensemble Forecasting: SPACE WEATHER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Knipp, Delores J. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001366	journal	February 2016
The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation Lynch, Peter Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-1-45	journal	January 2008
Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO Boynton, R. J.; Balikhin, M. A.; Billings, S. A. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 33, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-405-2015	journal	January 2015
Letters: Letters Elvidge, Sean Weather, Vol. 73, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3289	journal	June 2018
Inner magnetospheric modeling with the Rice Convection Model Toffoletto, Frank; Sazykin, Stanislav; Spiro, Robert Space Science Reviews, Vol. 107, Issue 1/2, p. 175-196 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1025532008047	journal	January 2003
Relativistic electron flux forecast at geostationary orbit using Kalman filter based on multivariate autoregressive model: MeV ELECTRON FORECAST AT GEO Sakaguchi, K.; Miyoshi, Y.; Saito, S. Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20020	journal	February 2013
Communicating Uncertainty and Reliability in Space Weather Data, Models, and Applications Knipp, Delores J.; Hapgood, Michael A.; Welling, Daniel Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002083	journal	October 2018
Regional-scale high-latitude extreme geoelectric fields pertaining to geomagnetically induced currents Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan Earth, Planets and Space, Vol. 67, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0255-6	journal	June 2015
GIC observations and studies in the Hydro-Québec power system Bolduc, Léonard Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 64, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(02)00128-1	journal	November 2002
The latitudinal variation of geoelectromagnetic disturbances during large ( Dst ≤−100 nT) geomagnetic storms: LATITUDINAL VARIATION OF STORM TIME GMDS Woodroffe, J. R.; Morley, S. K.; Jordanova, V. K. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001376	journal	September 2016
Supersubstorms (SML < −2500 nT): Magnetic storm and solar cycle dependences: Supersubstorms Hajra, Rajkumar; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Echer, Ezequiel Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 121, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021835	journal	August 2016
Space weather impacts on satellites and forecasting the Earth's electron radiation belts with SPACECAST: RADIATION BELT FORECASTING Horne, R. B.; Glauert, S. A.; Meredith, N. P. Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20023	journal	April 2013
White House Releases National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan: Release of Nat. Strategy and Action Plan Jonas, Seth; McCarron, Eoin D. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001357	journal	February 2016
Comment on “Modeling Extreme “Carrington-Type” Space Weather Events Using Three-Dimensional Global MHD Simulations” by C. M. Ngwira, A. Pulkkinen, M. M. Kuznetsova, and A. Glocer” Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Lakhina, Gurbax S.; Echer, Ezequiel Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 123, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024779	journal	February 2018
Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D. IEEE Systems Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2017.2737993	journal	December 2018
Dynamic linear models for forecasting of radiation belt electrons and limitations on physical interpretation of predictive models: OSTHUS ET AL. Osthus, D.; Caragea, P. C.; Higdon, D. Space Weather, Vol. 12, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001057	journal	June 2014
Correlation of Long Wave Transatlantic Radio Transmission with Other Factors Affected by Solar Activity Anderson, C. N. Proceedings of the IRE, Vol. 16, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1109/JRPROC.1928.221400	journal	March 1928
Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio Morley, S. K.; Brito, T. V.; Welling, D. T. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001669	journal	January 2018
SEAES-GEO: A spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system for geosynchronous orbit: SEAES-GEO O'Brien, T. P. Space Weather, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009SW000473	journal	September 2009
The State of the Art in Flow Visualisation: Feature Extraction and Tracking: The State of the Art in Flow Visualisation: Feature Extraction and Tracking Post, Frits H.; Vrolijk, Benjamin; Hauser, Helwig Computer Graphics Forum, Vol. 22, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8659.2003.00723.x	journal	December 2003
Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences Carr, Rachel Hogan; Montz, Burrell; Semmens, Kathryn Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 33, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0018.1	journal	October 2018
Real-time Earth magnetosphere simulator with three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code: REAL-TIME MAGNETOSPHERE SIMULATOR Den, M.; Tanaka, T.; Fujita, S. Space Weather, Vol. 4, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004SW000100	journal	June 2006
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Barnett, David N. Nature, Vol. 430, Issue 7001 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771	journal	August 2004
Ocean Eddy Identification and Tracking Using Neural Networks Franz, Katharina; Roscher, Ribana; Milioto, Andres IGARSS 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8519261	conference	July 2018
Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations: GEOSPACE MODEL VALIDATION: REGIONAL K Glocer, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001387	journal	July 2016
Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. M. L. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 21, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339702100403	journal	December 1997
Solar wind drivers of large geomagnetically induced currents during the solar cycle 23: SOLAR WIND DRIVERS AND GIC Huttunen, K. E. J.; Kilpua, S. P.; Pulkkinen, A. Space Weather, Vol. 6, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007SW000374	journal	October 2008
Global Three‐Dimensional Simulation of Earth's Dayside Reconnection Using a Two‐Way Coupled Magnetohydrodynamics With Embedded Particle‐in‐Cell Model: Initial Results Chen, Yuxi; Tóth, Gábor; Cassak, Paul Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 122, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024186	journal	October 2017
Synthesis of Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Commentary and Research Knipp, Delores J. Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001317	journal	November 2015
Alexander von Humboldt and geomagnetic science Chapman, Sydney Archive for History of Exact Sciences, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00325160	journal	August 1962
Mathematical models of the open magnetosphere: Application to dayside auroras Forbes, T. G.; Speiser, T. W. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 76, Issue 31 https://doi.org/10.1029/JA076i031p07542	journal	November 1971
Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001758	journal	December 2017
Building and Using Coupled Models for the Space Weather System: Lessons Learned Baker, Daniel N.; Quinn, Jack; Hughes, Jeffrey Space Weather, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009SW000462	journal	May 2009
A Culture of Improving Forecasts: Lessons From Meteorology Siscoe, George Space Weather, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005SW000178	journal	January 2006
Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting Owens, M. J.; Horbury, T. S.; Wicks, R. T. Space Weather, Vol. 12, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001064	journal	June 2014
Ion Acceleration by Flux Transfer Events in the Terrestrial Magnetosheath Jarvinen, R.; Vainio, R.; Palmroth, M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076192	journal	February 2018
Minimum variance analysis-based propagation of the solar wind observations: Application to real-time global magnetohydrodynamic simulations: SW PROPAGATION Pulkkinen, A.; Rastätter, L. Space Weather, Vol. 7, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009SW000468	journal	December 2009
Data assimilation of low-altitude magnetic perturbations into a global magnetosphere model: ASSIMILATION OF MAGNETIC PERTURBATIONS Merkin, V. G.; Kondrashov, D.; Ghil, M. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001330	journal	February 2016
L1L5Together: Report of Workshop on Future Missions to Monitor Space Weather on the Sun and in the Solar Wind Using Both the L1 and L5 Lagrange Points as Valuable Viewpoints: L1L5TOGETHER Hapgood, Mike Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001652	journal	May 2017
The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting Camporeale, E. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002061	journal	August 2019
Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan: The National Program Is Rolled Out: SPACE WEATHER STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN Lanzerotti, Louis J. Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001334	journal	December 2015
Initial results from a dynamic coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-ring current model: DYNAMIC COUPLED MI-RC MODEL Pembroke, Asher; Toffoletto, Frank; Sazykin, Stanislav Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 117, Issue A2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA016979	journal	February 2012
The effects on the Earth's magnetotail from shocks in the solar wind Lyon, John; Brecht, Stephen H.; Fedder, Joel A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/GL007i009p00721	journal	September 1980
Geomagnetic Disturbance: A comprehensive approach by American Electric Power to address the impacts. Qiu, Qun; Fleeman, Jeffery A.; Ball, David R. IEEE Electrification Magazine, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1109/MELE.2015.2480615	journal	December 2015
Dynamics of ring current and electric fields in the inner magnetosphere during disturbed periods: CRCM-BATS-R-US coupled model: CRCM-BATS-R-US COUPLED MODEL Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. -C.; Pulkkinen, A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 115, Issue A5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014621	journal	May 2010
Improved Simulations of The Inner Magnetosphere During High Geomagnetic Activity With the RAM‐SCB Model Engel, Miles A.; Morley, Steven K.; Henderson, Michael G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 124, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA026260	journal	June 2019
The Introduction of the Electric Telegraph in Britain, a Reappraisal of the Work of Cooke and Wheatstone Liffen, John The International Journal for the History of Engineering & Technology, Vol. 80, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1179/175812110X12714133353911	journal	July 2010
Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions Liemohn, Michael W.; McCollough, James P.; Jordanova, Vania K. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002067	journal	December 2018
Quantifying the Performance of Geomagnetically Induced Current Models Marsal, S.; Torta, J. M. Space Weather https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002208	journal	July 2019
Recommendations for Next‐Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation Welling, D. T.; Ngwira, C. M.; Opgenoorth, H. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002064	journal	December 2018
Gridded probabilistic weather forecasts with an analog ensemble: Gridded Probabilistic Forecasts with an Analog Ensemble Sperati, Simone; Alessandrini, Stefano; Delle Monache, Luca Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 708 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3137	journal	October 2017
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE: Weather Forecasting with Ensemble Methods Gneiting, T. Science, Vol. 310, Issue 5746 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115255	journal	October 2005
Surface electric fields for North America during historical geomagnetic storms: HISTORICAL GEOMAGNETIC STORMS Wei, Lisa H.; Homeier, Nicole; Gannon, Jennifer L. Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20073	journal	August 2013
Application usability levels: a framework for tracking project product progress Halford, Alexa J.; Kellerman, Adam C.; Garcia-Sage, Katherine Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2019030	journal	January 2019
Interplanetary Magnetic Field and the Auroral Zones Dungey, J. W. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.6.47	journal	January 1961
A small mission concept to the Sun–Earth Lagrangian L5 point for innovative solar, heliospheric and space weather science Lavraud, B.; Liu, Y.; Segura, K. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 146 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2016.06.004	journal	August 2016
Properties of outflow-driven sawtooth substorms: PROPERTIES OF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN SAWTEETH Ouellette, J. E.; Brambles, O. J.; Lyon, J. G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 118, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50309	journal	June 2013
Direct observations of solar-wind particles Hundhausen, A. J. Space Science Reviews, Vol. 8, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00175116	journal	December 1968
Jim Dungey, The Open Magnetosphere, and Space Weather: Jim Dungey and Space Weather Lockwood, Mike Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001438	journal	June 2016
Derivation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices Mayaud, P. N. Geophysical Monograph Series https://doi.org/10.1029/GM022	book	January 1980
The effects of geomagnetic disturbances on electrical systems at the Earth's surface Boteler, D. H.; Pirjola, R. J.; Nevanlinna, H. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(97)01096-X	journal	January 1998
Predicting magnetopause crossings at geosynchronous orbit during the Halloween storms: PREDICTING MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS Lopez, R. E.; Hernandez, S.; Wiltberger, M. Space Weather, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006SW000222	journal	January 2007
Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre: MOSWOC FLARE FORECASTING Murray, S. A.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001579	journal	April 2017
Space physics and policy for contemporary society: SPACE PHYSICS AND POLICY Cassak, P. A.; Emslie, A. G.; Halford, A. J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 122, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024219	journal	April 2017
Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events Verbeke, C.; Mays, M. L.; Temmer, M. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002046	journal	January 2019
Substorm occurrence rates, substorm recurrence times, and solar wind structure Borovsky, Joseph E.; Yakymenko, Kateryna Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023625	journal	March 2017
Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events Using Library Tools (CAMEL) Framework: Time Series Comparisons Rastätter, Lutz; Wiegand, Chiu P.; Mullinix, Richard E. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002043	journal	June 2019
Extracting Inner‐Heliosphere Solar Wind Speed Information From Heliospheric Imager Observations Barnard, L. A.; Owens, M. J.; Scott, C. J. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002226	journal	June 2019
An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting: Federal Involvement in Space Weather Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001626	journal	October 2017
Modeling Geoelectric Fields in Ireland and the UK for Space Weather Applications Campanyà, J.; Gallagher, P. T.; Blake, S. P. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001999	journal	February 2019
A Kp -based model of auroral boundaries: AURORAL BOUNDARY MODEL Carbary, James F. Space Weather, Vol. 3, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005SW000162	journal	October 2005
A Limit for the Values of the Dst Geomagnetic Index Acero, F. J.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079676	journal	September 2018
Overview of Solar Wind–Magnetosphere–Ionosphere–Atmosphere Coupling and the Generation of Magnetospheric Currents Milan, S. E.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Coxon, J. C. Space Science Reviews, Vol. 206, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-017-0333-0	journal	February 2017
New Ages of Operational Space Weather Forecast in Japan: SPACE WEATHER FORECAST IN JAPAN Nagatsuma, Tsutomu Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20050	journal	May 2013
Extremely high speed solar wind: 29–30 October 2003 Skoug, R. M. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, Issue A9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010494	journal	January 2004
Theories of the geomagnetic storm main phase Piddington, J. H. Planetary and Space Science, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(63)90232-0	journal	November 1963
Community-wide validation of geospace model ground magnetic field perturbation predictions to support model transition to operations: GEOSPACE MODEL TRANSITION Pulkkinen, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20056	journal	June 2013
Spectral scaling technique to determine extreme Carrington-level geomagnetically induced currents effects: {GIC SPECTRAL SCALING} Winter, Lisa M.; Gannon, Jennifer; Pernak, Rick Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001586	journal	May 2017
Small Satellites for Space Weather Research Robinson, Robert M.; Moretto, Therese Space Weather, Vol. 6, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008SW000392	journal	May 2008
The International Community Coordinated Modeling Center Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Overview of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Activities Scherliess, L.; Tsagouri, I.; Yizengaw, E. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002036	journal	April 2019
Integration of geomagnetic disturbance modeling into the power flow: A methodology for large-scale system studies Overbye, Thomas J.; Hutchins, Trevor R.; Shetye, Komal 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS 2012), 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS) https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2012.6336365	conference	September 2012
The Formation of a Magnetosphere with Implicit Particle-in-Cell Simulations Peng, Ivy Bo; Markidis, Stefano; Vaivads, Andris Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 51 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.05.288	journal	January 2015
Development of an accurate and reliable hourly flood forecasting model using wavelet–bootstrap–ANN (WBANN) hybrid approach Tiwari, Mukesh K.; Chatterjee, Chandranath Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 394, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.001	journal	November 2010
Introduction to Special Issue on high speed solar wind streams and geospace interactions (HSS–GI) Denton, M. H.; Borovsky, J. E.; Horne, R. B. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 71, Issue 10-11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.09.019	journal	July 2009
The 2019 National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan and Beyond Knipp, Delores J.; Gannon, Jennifer L. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002254	journal	June 2019
On the Need to Automate Support for Quality Assessment Studies of Space Weather Models MacNeice, P. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002039	journal	November 2018
Stormy weather in space Dooling, D. IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 32, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1109/6.387145	journal	June 1995
Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae: OVATION PRIME FOR VISIBLE AURORA FORECASTS Machol, Janet L.; Green, Janet C.; Redmon, Robert J. Space Weather, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000746	journal	March 2012
Growth phase of magnetospheric substorms McPherron, Robert L. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 75, Issue 28 https://doi.org/10.1029/JA075i028p05592	journal	October 1970
The Importance of Ensemble Techniques for Operational Space Weather Forecasting Murray, Sophie A. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001861	journal	July 2018
What if we had a magnetograph at Lagrangian L5?: MAGNETOGRAPH AT L5 AND SW FORECAST Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Bertello, Luca; MacNeice, Peter Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001471	journal	November 2016
Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015–2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS Schrijver, Carolus J.; Kauristie, Kirsti; Aylward, Alan D. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 55, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023	journal	June 2015
Magnetospheric Constellation: Leveraging Space 2.0 for Big Science Kepko, Larry IGARSS 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8519475	conference	July 2018
Extreme electron fluxes in the outer zone: EXTREME ELECTRON FLUXES O'Brien, T. P.; Fennell, J. F.; Roeder, J. L. Space Weather, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006SW000240	journal	January 2007
Numerical considerations in simulating the global magnetosphere Ridley, A. J.; Gombosi, T. I.; Sokolov, I. V. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 28, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-28-1589-2010	journal	January 2010
Modeling of 1–2 September 1859 super magnetic storm Li, Xinlin; Temerin, M.; Tsurutani, B. T. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 38, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2005.06.070	journal	January 2006
Probability and Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Analysis Abrahamson, Norman A.; Bommer, Julian J. Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1899158	journal	May 2005
Generalized extreme value shape parameter and its nature for extreme precipitation using long time series and the Bayesian approach Ragulina, Galina; Reitan, Trond Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 62, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1260134	journal	January 2017
Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of the generalized pareto distribution de Zea Bermudez, P.; Turkman, M. A. Amaral Test, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02595822	journal	June 2003
Is the Dst Index Sufficient to Define All Geospace Storms? : Is Borovsky, Joseph E.; Shprits, Yuri Y. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 122, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024679	journal	November 2017
Generation of 100-year geomagnetically induced current scenarios: 100-YEAR SCENARIOS Pulkkinen, A.; Bernabeu, E.; Eichner, J. Space Weather, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000750	journal	April 2012
Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm: GEOELECTRIC HAZARD MAPS Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076042	journal	January 2018
Energetic Particle Data From the Global Positioning System Constellation Morley, S. K.; Sullivan, J. P.; Carver, M. R. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001604	journal	February 2017
Released for Public Comment: Space Weather Benchmarks and Operations-to-Research Plan: Public Comment on Benchmarks and O2R Plan Jonas, Seth; Murtagh, William; Bonadonna, Michael Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001603	journal	February 2017
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Switzerland: best estimates and uncertainties Wiemer, Stefan; Giardini, Domenico; Fäh, Donat Journal of Seismology, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9138-7	journal	October 2008
Modeling Geomagnetically Induced Currents From Magnetometer Measurements: Spatial Scale Assessed With Reference Measurements: MODELING GICs Butala, Mark D.; Kazerooni, Maryam; Makela, Jonathan J. Space Weather, Vol. 15, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001602	journal	October 2017
Development of the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model: GLOBAL ASSIMILATIVE IONOSPHERIC MODEL Wang, Chunming; Hajj, George; Pi, Xiaoqing Radio Science, Vol. 39, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002RS002854	journal	February 2004
GRADE guidelines: 3. Rating the quality of evidence Balshem, Howard; Helfand, Mark; Schünemann, Holger J. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, Vol. 64, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.07.015	journal	April 2011
The National Space Weather Program Tascione, Thomas; Cliffswallow, W. 33rd Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit https://doi.org/10.2514/6.1995-550	conference	February 2013
Validation of Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) With Long‐Term GOES MAGED Measurements of keV Electron Fluxes at Geostationary Orbit Ganushkina, N. Yu; Sillanpää, I.; Welling, D. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002028	journal	May 2019
On the Generation of Probabilistic Forecasts From Deterministic Models Camporeale, E.; Chu, X.; Agapitov, O. V. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002026	journal	March 2019
Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation Charney, J. G.; FjÖRtoft, R.; Neumann, J. Tellus, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00336.x	journal	November 1950
Review of Formation Flying and Constellation Missions Using Nanosatellites Bandyopadhyay, Saptarshi; Foust, Rebecca; Subramanian, Giri P. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 53, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A33291	journal	May 2016
Summary of Progress in the Study of Radio Wave Propagation Phenomena Kenrick, G. W.; Pickard, G. W. Proceedings of the IRE, Vol. 18, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1109/JRPROC.1930.222050	journal	April 1930
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values Coles, Stuart Springer Series in Statistics https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0	book	January 2001
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy Smith, Leonard A.; Stern, Nicholas Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1956 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149	journal	December 2011
A three dimensional MHD model of the Earth’s magnetosphere Wu, C. C.; Walker, R. J.; Dawson, J. M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/GL008i005p00523	journal	May 1981
Observation of High Intensity Radiation by Satellites 1958 Alpha and Gamma Van Allen, J. A.; Ludwig, G. H.; Ray, E. C. Journal of Jet Propulsion, Vol. 28, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.2514/8.7396	journal	September 1958
In Situ Eddy Analysis in a High-Resolution Ocean Climate Model Woodring, Jonathan; Petersen, Mark; Schmeiber, Andre IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1109/TVCG.2015.2467411	journal	January 2016
Wavelet-Based Bootstrap for Time Series Analysis Feng, Huaguang; Willemain, Thomas R.; Shang, Nong Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, Vol. 34, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1081/SAC-200055722	journal	April 2005
Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1-14 days: Trends in the Skill of Weather Prediction Stern, Harvey; Davidson, Noel E. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 692 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2559	journal	May 2015
Duration and extent of the great auroral storm of 1859 Green, James L.; Boardsen, Scott Advances in Space Research, Vol. 38, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2005.08.054	journal	January 2006
Editorial: Adaptive Kinetic-Fluid Models for Plasma Simulations on Modern Computer Systems Kolobov, Vladimir; Deluzet, Fabrice Frontiers in Physics, Vol. 7 https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2019.00078	journal	May 2019
Multidimensional, Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of Solar-Generated Disturbances: Space Weather Forecasting of Geomagnetic Storms Dryer, Murray AIAA Journal, Vol. 36, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2514/2.405	journal	March 1998
Forecast Verification Jolliffe, Ian T.; Stephenson, David B. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119960003	book	December 2011
Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's solar flare forecasting look-up table and forecaster-issued probabilities: VALIDATION OF SWPC FLARE PROBABILITIES Crown, Misty D. Space Weather, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000760	journal	June 2012
Dynamic Variation of the Auroral Oval During Intense Magnetic Storms Meng, C. -I. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 89, Issue A1 https://doi.org/10.1029/JA089iA01p00227	journal	January 1984
Properties of a fourier bootstrap method for time series Braun, W. J.; Kulperger, R. J. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Vol. 26, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/03610929708831985	journal	January 1997
Recent advances in understanding substorm dynamics: FRONTIER Sergeev, V. A.; Angelopoulos, V.; Nakamura, R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050859	journal	March 2012
The effects of dynamic ionospheric outflow on the ring current: OUTFLOW AND RING CURRENT Welling, D. T.; Jordanova, V. K.; Zaharia, S. G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 116, Issue A2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015642	journal	February 2011
Including Kinetic Ion Effects in the Coupled Global Ionospheric Outflow Solution Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Fok, M. -C. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 123, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018JA025241	journal	April 2018
50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Harper, Kristine; Uccellini, Louis W.; Kalnay, Eugenia Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639	journal	May 2007
Monitoring of global ionospheric irregularities using the Worldwide GPS Network Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Lindqwister, U. J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 24, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL02273	journal	September 1997
Global numerical simulation of the growth phase and the expansion onset for a substorm observed by Viking Fedder, J. A.; Slinker, S. P.; Lyon, J. G. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 100, Issue A10 https://doi.org/10.1029/95JA01524	journal	January 1995
GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations Guyatt, Gordon H.; Oxman, Andrew D.; Vist, Gunn E. BMJ, Vol. 336, Issue 7650 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39489.470347.AD	journal	April 2008
A millennium of geomagnetism Stern, David P. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 40, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000RG000097	journal	January 2002
Parameter and Quantile Estimation for the Generalized Pareto Distribution Hosking, J. R. M.; Wallis, J. R. Technometrics, Vol. 29, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1987.10488243	journal	August 1987
The occurrence rate of magnetospheric-substorm onsets: Random and periodic substorms Borovsky, Joseph E.; Nemzek, Robert J.; Belian, Richard D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 98, Issue A3 https://doi.org/10.1029/92JA02556	journal	March 1993
Telstar Anniversary Reminds Us How Far Space Weather Has Come Lanzerotti, Louis J. Space Weather, Vol. 10, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012SW000837	journal	August 2012
Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework Morley, S. K.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002000	journal	September 2018
Extreme internal charging currents in medium Earth orbit: Analysis of SURF plate currents on Giove-A: EXTREME INTERNAL CHARGING CURRENTS Meredith, Nigel P.; Horne, Richard B.; Isles, John D. Space Weather, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001404	journal	August 2016
The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades Palmer, T. N. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 128, Issue 581 https://doi.org/10.1256/0035900021643593	journal	April 2002
Real-Time SWMF at CCMC: Assessing the Dst Output From Continuous Operational Simulations Liemohn, Mike; Ganushkina, Natalia Yu.; De Zeeuw, Darren L. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001953	journal	October 2018
Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction Siuta, David; West, Gregory; Modzelewski, Henryk Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 31, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0075.1	journal	December 2016
Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Auroral Precipitation and High‐Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics Robinson, Robert; Zhang, Yongliang; Garcia‐Sage, Katherine Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW002127	journal	February 2019
The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations Ralph, F. Martin; Intrieri, Janet; Andra, David Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00080.1	journal	August 2013
Comparative study of ring current development using empirical, dipolar, and self-consistent magnetic field simulations: RING CURRENT AND MAGNETIC FIELD DYNAMICS Jordanova, V. K.; Zaharia, S.; Welling, D. T. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 115, Issue A12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015671	journal	December 2010
A survey of customers of space weather information: SPACE WEATHER CUSTOMER SURVEY Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P. Space Weather, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20092	journal	September 2013
Comment on “The extreme magnetic storm of 1-2 September 1859” by B. T. Tsurutani, W. D. Gonzalez, G. S. Lakhina, and S. Alex: COMMENTARY Akasofu, S. -I.; Kamide, Y. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 110, Issue A9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011005	journal	September 2005
Space Weather Modeling Framework: A new tool for the space science community Tóth, Gábor; Sokolov, Igor V.; Gombosi, Tamas I. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue A12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011126	journal	January 2005
Progress towards physics-based space weather forecasting with exascale computing Innocenti, Maria Elena; Johnson, Alec; Markidis, Stefano Advances in Engineering Software, Vol. 111 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advengsoft.2016.06.011	journal	September 2017
Estimating the solar wind conditions during an extreme geomagnetic storm: a case study of the event that occurred on March 13–14, 1989 Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Kataoka, Ryuho; Kunitake, Manabu Earth, Planets and Space, Vol. 67, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0249-4	journal	May 2015
Global Explicit Particle-In-Cell Simulations of the Nonstationary bow Shock and Magnetosphere Yang, Zhongwei; Huang, Can; Liu, Ying D. The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, Vol. 225, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/13	journal	July 2016
Probabilistic Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Forecasting Using an Analogue Ensemble or “Similar Day” Approach Owens, M. J.; Riley, P.; Horbury, T. S. Solar Physics, Vol. 292, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-017-1090-7	journal	April 2017
Forecasting the Structure and Orientation of Earthbound Coronal Mass Ejections Kilpua, E. K. J.; Lugaz, N.; Mays, M. L. Space Weather, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001944	journal	April 2019
Evaluating the Skill of Forecasts of the Near-Earth Solar Wind Using a Space Weather Monitor at L5 Thomas, S. R.; Fazakerley, A.; Wicks, R. T. Space Weather, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018SW001821	journal	July 2018
The Space Weather Journal: How It Began Robinson, Robert Space Weather, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000019	journal	October 2003
A general relation between the energy of trapped particles and the disturbance field near the Earth Sckopke, Norbert Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 71, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ071i013p03125	journal	July 1966
Mission to the Sun-Earth L ₅ Lagrangian Point: An Optimal Platform for Space Weather Research: Mission to the Sun-Earth L5 Point: Vourlidas, Angelos Space Weather, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001173	journal	April 2015
The Role of Empirical Space-Weather Models (in a World of Physics-Based Numerical Simulations) Owens, Mathew J.; Riley, Pete; Horbury, Tim Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, Vol. 13, Issue S335 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1743921317007128	journal	July 2017
Space Weather Diamond: a four spacecraft monitoring system Cyr, O. C. St.; Mesarch, M. A.; Maldonado, H. M. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 62, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(00)00069-9	journal	September 2000
The substorm current wedge and field-aligned currents in MHD simulations of magnetotail reconnection Birn, J.; Hesse, M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 96, Issue A2 https://doi.org/10.1029/90JA01762	journal	February 1991
Space Weather's Time Has Come Space Weather, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000024	journal	October 2003
What determines the reconnection rate at the dayside magnetosphere?: WHAT DETERMINES THE RECONNECTION RATE? Borovsky, Joseph E.; Hesse, Michael; Birn, Joachim Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol. 113, Issue A7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA012645	journal	July 2008
A Multiplatform Study of I/O Behavior on Petascale Supercomputers Luu, Huong; Winslett, Marianne; Gropp, William Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on High-Performance Parallel and Distributed Computing - HPDC '15 https://doi.org/10.1145/2749246.2749269	conference	January 2015

Similar Records

Critical Infrastructure for Ocean Research and Societal Needs in 2030

Technical Report · 2011 · OSTI ID:1044991

None, None

The 2023 terahertz science and technology roadmap

Journal Article · 2023 · Journal of Physics. D, Applied Physics · OSTI ID:1968621

Leitenstorfer, Alfred; Moskalenko, Andrey S.; Kampfrath, Tobias; +51 more

Multiscale hydrogeologic-biogeochemical process monitoring and prediction framework. Final Report

Technical Report · 2019 · OSTI ID:1501753

Versteeg, Roelof

Related Subjects

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics

Title: Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Citation Formats

References (212)

Similar Records

Related Subjects