CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica
Abstract
Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such asmore »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR); National Science Foundation (NSF); Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; Norwegian Research Council; North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC); Fondation Albert II de Monaco; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1603382
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1634959
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-26914
Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001; ANR-15-CE01-0015; ANR15-CE01-0005-01; 1744792; 1756272; 1916566; 024.002.001; 231549; 280727; NE/N018486/1
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; earth sciences; multi-model; model evaluation; climate; future sea level rise
Citation Formats
Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, and Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica. Germany: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.5194/tc-14-855-2020.
Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, & Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher M., Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Helene, Straneo, Fiammetta, and Bracegirdle, Thomas J.. Fri .
"CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020.
@article{osti_1603382,
title = {CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica},
author = {Barthel, Alice and Agosta, Cécile and Little, Christopher M. and Hattermann, Tore and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Goelzer, Heiko and Nowicki, Sophie and Seroussi, Helene and Straneo, Fiammetta and Bracegirdle, Thomas J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-855-2020},
journal = {The Cryosphere (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 14,
place = {Germany},
year = {2020},
month = {3}
}
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Cited by: 43 works
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Figures / Tables:
Table 1: ERA-Interim reanalysis and CMIP5 models used in this study.
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