Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Abstract
Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.
- Authors:
-
[2];
[2];
[2];
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1601654
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-151297
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., and Wise, Marshall A. Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b.
Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., & Wise, Marshall A. Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., and Wise, Marshall A. Tue .
"Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1601654.
@article{osti_1601654,
title = {Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways},
author = {Graham, Neal T. and Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Chen, Min and Davies, Evan and Edmonds, James A. and Kim, Son H. and Turner, Sean WD and Li, Xinya and Vernon, Christopher R. and Calvin, Katherine V. and Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. and Clarke, Leon E. and Kyle, Gordon P. and Link, Robert P. and Patel, Pralit L. and Snyder, Abigail C. and Wise, Marshall A.},
abstractNote = {Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 1,
volume = 15,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 14 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Tue Jan 14 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
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Figure 1: Scenario breakdown of 90 total scenarios. SSP-RCP scenario matrix depicting the set of 15 scenarios (green shading) in which a plausible solution exists in GCAM. In addition, a breakdown of the human and climate impacts for which GCM outputs from a suite of 5 CMIP5 climate datasets aremore »
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Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.