Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Graham, Neal T.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Chen, Min; Davies, Evan; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Turner, Sean WD; Li, Xinya; Vernon, Christopher R.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, Gordon P.; Link, Robert P.; Patel, Pralit L.; Snyder, Abigail C.; Wise, Marshall A.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b

Title: Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article · 14 January 2020 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b · OSTI ID:1601654

Graham, Neal T. ^[1]; Hejazi, Mohamad I. ^[2]; Chen, Min ^[2]; Davies, Evan ^[3];

^[2]; Kim, Son H. ^[2]; Turner, Sean WD ^[2]; Li, Xinya ^[2]; Vernon, Christopher R. ^[2];

^[2]; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. ^[4]; Clarke, Leon E. ^[2]; Kyle, Gordon P. ^[2];

^[2]; Patel, Pralit L. ^[2]; Snyder, Abigail C. ^[2]; Wise, Marshall A. ^[2]

Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)

Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1601654

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-151297

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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