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Title: Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2];  [4];  [2];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [2];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
  4. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1601654
Report Number(s):
[PNNL-SA-151297]
[Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC05-76RL01830]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 1]; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., and Wise, Marshall A. Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b.
Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., & Wise, Marshall A. Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b.
Graham, Neal T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Chen, Min, Davies, Evan, Edmonds, James A., Kim, Son H., Turner, Sean WD, Li, Xinya, Vernon, Christopher R., Calvin, Katherine V., Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon E., Kyle, Gordon P., Link, Robert P., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., and Wise, Marshall A. Tue . "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1601654.
@article{osti_1601654,
title = {Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways},
author = {Graham, Neal T. and Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Chen, Min and Davies, Evan and Edmonds, James A. and Kim, Son H. and Turner, Sean WD and Li, Xinya and Vernon, Christopher R. and Calvin, Katherine V. and Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. and Clarke, Leon E. and Kyle, Gordon P. and Link, Robert P. and Patel, Pralit L. and Snyder, Abigail C. and Wise, Marshall A.},
abstractNote = {Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = [1],
volume = [15],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}

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