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Title: CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

Abstract

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden); Univ. of Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD (Australia)
  3. PAR Associates, Las Cruces, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1601423
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1596907
Report Number(s):
[LA-UR-19-32146]
[Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[89233218C; NA000001]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 47; Journal Issue: 3]; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Climate models, volcanic aerosols; regression analysis; AMO; predictors radiative forcing

Citation Formats

Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., and Dubey, Manvendra K. CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2020GL087047.
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., & Dubey, Manvendra K. CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols. United States. doi:10.1029/2020GL087047.
Chylek, Petr, Folland, Chris, Klett, James D., and Dubey, Manvendra K. Mon . "CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols". United States. doi:10.1029/2020GL087047. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1601423.
@article{osti_1601423,
title = {CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols},
author = {Chylek, Petr and Folland, Chris and Klett, James D. and Dubey, Manvendra K.},
abstractNote = {We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087047},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = [3],
volume = [47],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}

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