Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange Estimates
Abstract
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South Americamore »
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- Department of GeographyLudwig‐Maximilians Universität München Germany
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of Exeter Exeter UK
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'EnvironnementCEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, UMR8212 Gif‐sur‐Yvette France
- University Paris‐Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR 211 Thiverval‐Grignon France, CIRED Nogent‐sur‐Marne France
- College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of Exeter Exeter UK
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Germany
- Department of GeographyLudwig‐Maximilians Universität München Germany, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
- Department of Meteorology and Air QualityWageningen University and Research Wageningen Netherlands
- Research Institute for Global ChangeJapan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Canberra ACT Australia
- Department of Geoscience, Environment and SocietyUniversité Libre de Bruxelles Bruxelles Belgium
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'EnvironnementCEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ, UMR8212 Gif‐sur‐Yvette France, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua University Beijing China
- Department of Meteorology and Air QualityWageningen University and Research Wageningen Netherlands, Centre for Isotope ResearchUniversity of Groningen Groningen Netherlands
- Department of GeographyUniversity of Augsburg Augsburg Germany
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USA
- Institute of Applied Energy Minato Japan
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of Bern Bern Switzerland
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Mto‐France, CNRS Toulouse France
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
- Biospheric Sciences LabNASA Greenbelt MD USA
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife SciencesAuburn University Auburn AL USA
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science InstituteOak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative; European Research Council (ERC); Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1601089
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1601090; OSTI ID: 1649089
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DESC0016323; AC05-00OR22725; ESA-CCI RECCAP2; 016.Veni.171.095; SC0016323; AGS 12-43071
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Global Biogeochemical Cycles Journal Volume: 34 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Atmospheric inversions; global carbon budget; dynamic global vegetation models; carbon cycle
Citation Formats
Bastos, A., O'Sullivan, M., Ciais, P., Makowski, D., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Chevallier, F., Rödenbeck, C., Pongratz, J., Luijkx, I. T., Patra, P. K., Peylin, P., Canadell, J. G., Lauerwald, R., Li, W., Smith, N. E., Peters, W., Goll, D. S., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D. L., Haverd, V., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Poulter, B., Tian, H., Walker, A. P., and Zaehle, S. Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange Estimates. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019GB006393.
Bastos, A., O'Sullivan, M., Ciais, P., Makowski, D., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Chevallier, F., Rödenbeck, C., Pongratz, J., Luijkx, I. T., Patra, P. K., Peylin, P., Canadell, J. G., Lauerwald, R., Li, W., Smith, N. E., Peters, W., Goll, D. S., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D. L., Haverd, V., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Poulter, B., Tian, H., Walker, A. P., & Zaehle, S. Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange Estimates. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006393
Bastos, A., O'Sullivan, M., Ciais, P., Makowski, D., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Chevallier, F., Rödenbeck, C., Pongratz, J., Luijkx, I. T., Patra, P. K., Peylin, P., Canadell, J. G., Lauerwald, R., Li, W., Smith, N. E., Peters, W., Goll, D. S., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D. L., Haverd, V., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Poulter, B., Tian, H., Walker, A. P., and Zaehle, S. Tue .
"Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange Estimates". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006393.
@article{osti_1601089,
title = {Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO 2 Exchange Estimates},
author = {Bastos, A. and O'Sullivan, M. and Ciais, P. and Makowski, D. and Sitch, S. and Friedlingstein, P. and Chevallier, F. and Rödenbeck, C. and Pongratz, J. and Luijkx, I. T. and Patra, P. K. and Peylin, P. and Canadell, J. G. and Lauerwald, R. and Li, W. and Smith, N. E. and Peters, W. and Goll, D. S. and Jain, A. K. and Kato, E. and Lienert, S. and Lombardozzi, D. L. and Haverd, V. and Nabel, J. E. M. S. and Poulter, B. and Tian, H. and Walker, A. P. and Zaehle, S.},
abstractNote = {The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South America and Southeast Asia. We identify key needs to reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets: reducing uncertainty in atmospheric inversions (e.g., through more observations in the tropics) and in land use change fluxes, including more land use processes and evaluating land use transitions (e.g., using high-resolution remote-sensing), and, finally, improving tropical hydroecological processes and fire representation within DGVMs.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GB006393},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 2,
volume = 34,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}
}
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