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Title: Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Abstract

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1599838
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC02-05CH11231]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 1]; Journal ID: ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher:
AAAS
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Reed, Kevin A., Stansfield, A. M., Wehner, M. F., and Zarzycki, C. M. Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253.
Reed, Kevin A., Stansfield, A. M., Wehner, M. F., & Zarzycki, C. M. Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence. United States. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253.
Reed, Kevin A., Stansfield, A. M., Wehner, M. F., and Zarzycki, C. M. Wed . "Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence". United States. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1599838.
@article{osti_1599838,
title = {Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence},
author = {Reed, Kevin A. and Stansfield, A. M. and Wehner, M. F. and Zarzycki, C. M.},
abstractNote = {Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = [1],
volume = [6],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}

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