Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Reed, Kevin A.; Stansfield, A. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253

Title: Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Journal Article · 31 December 2019 · Science Advances

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw9253 · OSTI ID:1599838

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Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1599838

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 6; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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