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Title: Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

Abstract

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model andmore » observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.« less

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1592184
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1597647
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-143590
Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Journal Volume: 20 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
Copernicus Publications, EGU
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Gryspeerdt, Edward, Mülmenstädt, Johannes, Gettelman, Andrew, Malavelle, Florent F., Morrison, Hugh, Neubauer, David, Partridge, Daniel G., Stier, Philip, Takemura, Toshihiko, Wang, Hailong, Wang, Minghuai, and Zhang, Kai. Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Germany: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.5194/acp-20-613-2020.
Gryspeerdt, Edward, Mülmenstädt, Johannes, Gettelman, Andrew, Malavelle, Florent F., Morrison, Hugh, Neubauer, David, Partridge, Daniel G., Stier, Philip, Takemura, Toshihiko, Wang, Hailong, Wang, Minghuai, & Zhang, Kai. Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-613-2020
Gryspeerdt, Edward, Mülmenstädt, Johannes, Gettelman, Andrew, Malavelle, Florent F., Morrison, Hugh, Neubauer, David, Partridge, Daniel G., Stier, Philip, Takemura, Toshihiko, Wang, Hailong, Wang, Minghuai, and Zhang, Kai. Fri . "Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-613-2020.
@article{osti_1592184,
title = {Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates},
author = {Gryspeerdt, Edward and Mülmenstädt, Johannes and Gettelman, Andrew and Malavelle, Florent F. and Morrison, Hugh and Neubauer, David and Partridge, Daniel G. and Stier, Philip and Takemura, Toshihiko and Wang, Hailong and Wang, Minghuai and Zhang, Kai},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-613-2020},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 20,
place = {Germany},
year = {Fri Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Fri Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-613-2020

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Cited by: 29 works
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