skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century

 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Berkeley CA USA
  2. Forage Seed and Cereal Research UnitUSDA‐ARS Corvallis OR USA
  3. Energy Resources GroupUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley CA USA
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
OSTI Identifier:
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1597151
Grant/Contract Number:  
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Volume: 125 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States

Citation Formats

Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., and Torn, Margaret S. CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2019JG005266.
Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., & Torn, Margaret S. CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century. United States. doi:10.1029/2019JG005266.
Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., and Torn, Margaret S. Mon . "CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century". United States. doi:10.1029/2019JG005266.
title = {CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century},
author = {Soong, Jennifer L. and Phillips, Claire L. and Ledna, Catherine and Koven, Charles D. and Torn, Margaret S.},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1029/2019JG005266},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 2,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {2}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1029/2019JG005266

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

A method for experimental heating of intact soil profiles for application to climate change experiments: EXPERIMENTAL HEATING OF INTACT SOIL PROFILES
journal, January 2011

Temperature and soil organic matter decomposition rates - synthesis of current knowledge and a way forward
journal, August 2011

Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models
journal, September 2003

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015

  • Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
  • Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature14338

Effects of vegetation height and density on soil temperature variations
journal, January 2013

Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming
journal, July 2010

  • Bekryaev, Roman V.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Alexeev, Vladimir A.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3297.1

The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming
journal, March 2017

Review of soil thermal conductivity and predictive models
journal, July 2017

Freezing Stress Influences Emergence of Germinated Perennial Grass Seeds
journal, March 2013

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

  • Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: An overview
journal, January 2005

Soil temperature in Canada during the twentieth century: Complex responses to atmospheric climate change
journal, January 2005

A decade of air–ground temperature exchange from Fargo, North Dakota
journal, June 2001

Factors of Soil Formation
journal, January 1941

A New Perspective on Soil Thermal Properties
journal, November 2001

  • Ochsner, Tyson E.; Horton, Robert; Ren, Tusheng
  • Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 65, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2001.1641

Persistence of soil organic matter as an ecosystem property
journal, October 2011

  • Schmidt, Michael W. I.; Torn, Margaret S.; Abiven, Samuel
  • Nature, Vol. 478, Issue 7367
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature10386

Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment
journal, October 2013

  • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50956

Impacts of Freezing Temperatures on crop Production in Canada
journal, October 1987

  • Brown, D. M.; Blackburn, W. J.
  • Canadian Journal of Plant Science, Vol. 67, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.4141/cjps87-156

Snow Removal and Ambient Air Temperature Effects on Forest Soil Temperatures in Northern Vermont
journal, July 2003

  • Decker, K. L. M.; Wang, D.; Waite, C.
  • Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 67, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2003.1234

Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
journal, January 2014

  • Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Hopkins, F.
  • Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014

Effect of the lower boundary position of the Fourier equation on the soil energy balance
journal, December 2004

  • Shufen, Sun; Xia, Zhang
  • Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 21, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1007/BF02915589

Recent change of Arctic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a source
journal, February 1993

  • Oechel, Walter C.; Hastings, Steven J.; Vourlrtis, George
  • Nature, Vol. 361, Issue 6412
  • DOI: 10.1038/361520a0

Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change
journal, March 2006

Analysis of self-describing gridded geoscience data with netCDF Operators (NCO)
journal, October 2008

Air-ground temperature coupling and subsurface propagation of annual temperature signals: AIR-GROUND TEMPERATURE COUPLING
journal, November 2004

  • Smerdon, Jason E.; Pollack, Henry N.; Cermak, Vladimir
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 109, Issue D21
  • DOI: 10.1029/2004JD005056

Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world
journal, September 2013

  • Bebber, Daniel P.; Ramotowski, Mark A. T.; Gurr, Sarah J.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1990

Soil temperatures at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1904 to 2002
journal, January 2006

  • García-Suárez, A. M.; Butler, C. J.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 26, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.1294

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests
journal, April 2014

On the Temperature Dependence of Soil Respiration
journal, June 1994

  • Lloyd, J.; Taylor, J. A.
  • Functional Ecology, Vol. 8, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.2307/2389824

Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models
journal, August 2013

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
journal, August 2017

  • Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 35
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114

Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production
journal, January 2011

Climate change and plant regeneration from seed: CLIMATE CHANGE AND PLANT REGENERATION
journal, January 2011

Seasonal snowpack characteristics influence soil temperature and water content at multiple scales in interior western U.S. mountain ecosystems
journal, June 2014

  • Maurer, Gregory E.; Bowling, David R.
  • Water Resources Research, Vol. 50, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013WR014452

Soil moisture controls on temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition for a mesic grassland
journal, February 2011

Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface
journal, January 2010

  • Lesperance, Marielle; Smerdon, Jason E.; Beltrami, Hugo
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D21
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014377

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
journal, August 2011

  • Koven, C. D.; Ringeval, B.; Friedlingstein, P.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 36
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1103910108

Simulating heat transport of harmonic temperature signals in the Earth's shallow subsurface: Lower-boundary sensitivities
journal, January 2006

  • Smerdon, Jason E.; Stieglitz, Marc
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026816

Soil Temperature Limitation to Water Use by Field-Grown Winter Wheat
journal, March 1907

Soil Temperature and root Growth
journal, January 1992

A Daily Soil Temperature Dataset and Soil Temperature Climatology of the Contiguous United States
journal, August 2003

Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall
journal, October 2013

  • Krasting, John P.; Broccoli, Anthony J.; Dixon, Keith W.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00832.1

The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011

An examination of short- and long-term air–ground temperature coupling
journal, September 2003

The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives
journal, June 2008

  • Jarvis, Andy; Lane, Annie; Hijmans, Robert J.
  • Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Vol. 126, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.013

Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, March 2013

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
journal, March 2014

  • Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2153

Sensitivity of decomposition rates of soil organic matter with respect to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture
journal, February 2015

  • Sierra, Carlos A.; Trumbore, Susan E.; Davidson, Eric A.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 7, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000358

Effects of straw mulching on soil temperature, evaporation and yield of winter wheat: field experiments on the North China Plain
journal, June 2007

Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model
journal, January 2011

  • Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 3, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011MS000045

Intraseasonal variation in the thermoinsulation effect of snow cover on soil temperatures and energy balance: THERMOINSULATION OF SOIL BY SNOW COVER
journal, May 2002

  • Sokratov, Sergey A.; Barry, Roger G.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 107, Issue D10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000489

Air Temperature During Seed Filling and Soybean Seed Germination and Vigor
journal, July 2005

Subsurface thermal effects of land use changes
journal, January 2005