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Title: CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century

Abstract

Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 ± 0.7 and 4.5 ± 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface (~1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface airmore » above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Berkeley CA USA
  2. Forage Seed and Cereal Research UnitUSDA‐ARS Corvallis OR USA
  3. Energy Resources GroupUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley CA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1597149
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1597151; OSTI ID: 1631630
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0001234; AC02-05CH11231; DGE‐1450053
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Volume: 125 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Soil warming; CMIP5; Soil Moisture; Temperature; Deep soils

Citation Formats

Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., and Torn, Margaret S. CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2019JG005266.
Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., & Torn, Margaret S. CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005266
Soong, Jennifer L., Phillips, Claire L., Ledna, Catherine, Koven, Charles D., and Torn, Margaret S. Mon . "CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005266.
@article{osti_1597149,
title = {CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century},
author = {Soong, Jennifer L. and Phillips, Claire L. and Ledna, Catherine and Koven, Charles D. and Torn, Margaret S.},
abstractNote = {Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 ± 0.7 and 4.5 ± 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface (~1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface air above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JG005266},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 2,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 03 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Mon Feb 03 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005266

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Cited by: 53 works
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