Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

Steinberg, Daniel C.; Mignone, Bryan K.; Macknick, Jordan E.; Sun, Yinong; Eurek, Kelly P.; Badger, Andrew; Livneh, Ben; Averyt, Kristen

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6

Title: Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

Journal Article · 03 January 2020 · Climatic Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6 · OSTI ID:1595569

^[1]; Mignone, Bryan K. ^[2];

^[1]; Sun, Yinong ^[1]; Eurek, Kelly P. ^[1]; Badger, Andrew ^[3]; Livneh, Ben ^[3]; Averyt, Kristen ^[4]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Desert Research Inst., Las Vegas, NV (United States)

Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model - the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1595569

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--6A20-71273

Journal Information:: Climatic Change, Journal Name: Climatic Change Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 158; ISSN 0165-0009

Publisher:: SpringerCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (40)

Climate change and electricity demand in California Franco, Guido; Sanstad, Alan H. Climatic Change, Vol. 87, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y	journal	December 2007
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4	journal	July 2011
Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption Auffhammer, Maximilian; Aroonruengsawat, Anin Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0299-y	journal	November 2011
The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon Climatic Change, Vol. 119, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x	journal	May 2013
The effect of weather on grid systems and the reliability of electricity supply Ward, David M. Climatic Change, Vol. 121, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0916-z	journal	September 2013
Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8	journal	June 2015
Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities Sailor, David J. Energy, Vol. 26, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(01)00023-8	journal	July 2001
Air conditioning market saturation and long-term response of residential cooling energy demand to climate change Sailor, D. Energy, Vol. 28, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(03)00033-1	journal	July 2003
Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states Sailor, D. Energy, Vol. 22, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(97)00034-0	journal	October 1997
Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong Applied Energy, Vol. 113 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.034	journal	January 2014
Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: Financial implications for consumers and energy suppliers Huang, Jianhua; Gurney, Kevin Robert Energy and Buildings, Vol. 139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.01.077	journal	March 2017
Modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand: The case of China Asadoorian, Malcolm O.; Eckaus, Richard S.; Schlosser, C. Adam Energy Economics, Vol. 30, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.02.003	journal	July 2008
Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson Energy Economics, Vol. 72 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003	journal	May 2018
The role of input assumptions and model structures in projections of variable renewable energy: A multi-model perspective of the U.S. electricity system Mai, Trieu; Bistline, John; Sun, Yinong Energy Economics, Vol. 76 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.019	journal	October 2018
The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale Huang, Jianhua; Gurney, Kevin Robert Energy, Vol. 111 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.118	journal	September 2016
Effect of the ambient conditions on gas turbine combined cycle power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture González-Díaz, Abigail; Alcaráz-Calderón, Agustín M.; González-Díaz, Maria Ortencia Energy, Vol. 134 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.020	journal	September 2017
Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change Isaac, Morna; van Vuuren, Detlef P. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051	journal	February 2009
Climate change and electricity consumption—Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs? Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.033	journal	May 2010
The impact of climate change on the European energy system Dowling, Paul Energy Policy, Vol. 60 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.093	journal	September 2013
Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model® Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F. Energy Policy, Vol. 73 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.032	journal	October 2014
Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector Mansur, Erin T.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Morrison, Wendy Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 55, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2007.10.001	journal	March 2008
Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study Hadley, Stanton W.; Erickson, David J.; Hernandez, Jose Luis Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026652	journal	January 2006
Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.; Ludwig, Fulco Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1546	journal	June 2012
Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2903	journal	January 2016
Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3417	journal	October 2017
Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S. Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.103	journal	July 2016
Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi Nature Energy, Vol. 2, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.109	journal	July 2017
Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423558112	journal	April 2015
Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114	journal	February 2017
North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 38 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704339114	journal	August 2017
Mapping water availability, projected use and cost in the western United States Tidwell, Vincent C.; Moreland, Barbara D.; Zemlick, Katie M. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064009	journal	May 2014
Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change Craig, Michael T.; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Rossol, Michael Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf93b	journal	March 2019
Analyzing the Impact of Weather Variables on Monthly Electricity Demand Hor, C.-L.; Watson, S. J.; Majithia, S. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 20, Issue 4, p. 2078-2085 https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2005.857397	journal	November 2005
A System-Level Generic Model of Water Use at Power Plants and its Application to Regional Water Use Estimation Rutberg, Michael J.; Delgado, Anna; Herzog, Howard J. ASME 2011 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Volume 1: Advances in Aerospace Technology; Energy Water Nexus; Globalization of Engineering; Posters https://doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2011-63786	conference	August 2012
Climate, Extreme Heat, and Electricity Demand in California Miller, Norman L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Jin, Jiming Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1480.1	journal	June 2008
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US Deschênes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1257/app.3.4.152	journal	October 2011
Nationwide water availability data for energy-water modeling Tidwell, Vincent; Zemlick, Katie; Klise, Geoffrey https://doi.org/10.2172/1121917	report	November 2013
Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Kalendra, Eric https://doi.org/10.2172/1215283	report	July 2015
Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States Rosenthal, Donald H.; Gruenspecht, Howard K.; Moran, Emily A. The Energy Journal, Vol. 16, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No2-4	journal	April 1995

Similar Records

Erratum to: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

Journal Article · 2015 · Climatic Change · OSTI ID:1243257

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; +13 more

Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

Journal Article · 2015 · Climatic Change · OSTI ID:1243258

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; +13 more

Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

Journal Article · 2015 · Climatic Change · OSTI ID:1242035

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; +13 more

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
demand
electricity
impacts
power

Title: Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

Citation Formats

References (40)

Similar Records

Related Subjects