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Title: Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050

Abstract

Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model - the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findingsmore » show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [3];  [4]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Desert Research Inst., Las Vegas, NV (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company; USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1595569
Report Number(s):
[NREL/JA-6A20-71273]
[Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC36-08GO28308]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 158; Journal Issue: 2]; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; electricity; power; demand; impacts

Citation Formats

Steinberg, Daniel C., Mignone, Bryan K., Macknick, Jordan E., Sun, Yinong, Eurek, Kelly P., Badger, Andrew, Livneh, Ben, and Averyt, Kristen. Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6.
Steinberg, Daniel C., Mignone, Bryan K., Macknick, Jordan E., Sun, Yinong, Eurek, Kelly P., Badger, Andrew, Livneh, Ben, & Averyt, Kristen. Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6.
Steinberg, Daniel C., Mignone, Bryan K., Macknick, Jordan E., Sun, Yinong, Eurek, Kelly P., Badger, Andrew, Livneh, Ben, and Averyt, Kristen. Fri . "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1595569.
@article{osti_1595569,
title = {Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050},
author = {Steinberg, Daniel C. and Mignone, Bryan K. and Macknick, Jordan E. and Sun, Yinong and Eurek, Kelly P. and Badger, Andrew and Livneh, Ben and Averyt, Kristen},
abstractNote = {Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model - the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - this study evaluates both the isolated and combined effects of different climate-mediated drivers of US electricity system change through 2050. Comparing results across climate models allows us to evaluate which effects are robust to uncertainty in projected climate outcomes. Comparing effects of different drivers in isolation and in combination allows us to determine the relative contributions of the climate-mediated effects on system evolution. Our results indicate that national-level energy and economic impacts are largely driven by increases in electricity demand that follow from a consistent increase in surface air temperature that is largely robust to the choice of climate model. Other electricity system changes can be equally or more significant in some regions, but these effects are more regionally variable, less significant when aggregated to the national scale, and less robust to the choice of climate model. The findings show that the impacts of climate change on the electricity system can be understood in terms of fewer drivers and with greater certainty at the national level than at the regional level.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = [2],
volume = [158],
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}

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