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Title: Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

Abstract

Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  2. Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC (Australia)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Australian Research Council (ARC)
OSTI Identifier:
1581076
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; DE180100638; FT170100106; DE160100092
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Lewis, Sophie C., King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., and Wehner, Michael F. Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001273.
Lewis, Sophie C., King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., & Wehner, Michael F. Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001273
Lewis, Sophie C., King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., and Wehner, Michael F. Tue . "Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001273. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1581076.
@article{osti_1581076,
title = {Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies},
author = {Lewis, Sophie C. and King, Andrew D. and Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. and Wehner, Michael F.},
abstractNote = {Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.},
doi = {10.1029/2019ef001273},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 9,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}

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