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Title: Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

Abstract

We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service; Univ. of Bologna (Italy)
  2. Univ. of Bologna (Italy)
  3. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service; PartnerRe, Zurich (Switzerland)
  4. Helmholtz Centre PotsdamGFZ Potsdam Potsdam Germany
  5. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service
  6. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, (Italy)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1580958
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 46; Journal Issue: 20; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; statistical seismology; seismotectonics; statistical modeling; earthquake forecasting; models evaluation; seismic hazard assessment

Citation Formats

Petruccelli, A., Gasperini, P., Tormann, T., Schorlemmer, D., Rinaldi, A. P., Vannucci, G., and Wiemer, S. Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2019gl083997.
Petruccelli, A., Gasperini, P., Tormann, T., Schorlemmer, D., Rinaldi, A. P., Vannucci, G., & Wiemer, S. Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083997
Petruccelli, A., Gasperini, P., Tormann, T., Schorlemmer, D., Rinaldi, A. P., Vannucci, G., and Wiemer, S. Wed . "Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083997. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1580958.
@article{osti_1580958,
title = {Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth},
author = {Petruccelli, A. and Gasperini, P. and Tormann, T. and Schorlemmer, D. and Rinaldi, A. P. and Vannucci, G. and Wiemer, S.},
abstractNote = {We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies.},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl083997},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 20,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: SC FM data set (1981–2016, $z$ = 5–15 km, $Mc$ = 3, A and B mechanisms). (a) SC FM map. Almost all data fall inside the authoritative region of Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN—see the dashed line). Orange shading indicates the Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA) of SC.more » UCERF3: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3. NA: North America. PA: Pacific. (b) Hypocentral depth probability density functions (PDFs; depth binning at 2 km). The 90% of seismicity for each family denotes the seismogenic depth border. $z$min $z$max: minimum and maximum selected depth for further analyses. c) Normalized frequency‐magnitude distributions of data in (a). White, black‐outlined empty markers represent the sum of all three families.« less

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