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Title: Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service; Univ. of Bologna (Italy)
  2. Univ. of Bologna (Italy)
  3. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service; PartnerRe, Zurich (Switzerland)
  4. Helmholtz Centre PotsdamGFZ Potsdam Potsdam Germany
  5. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Swiss Seismological Service
  6. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, (Italy)
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We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1580958
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 20; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Figures / Tables (4)

Figure 1(p. 4)figure Figure 1
Table 1(p. 6)table Table 1
Figure 2(p. 8)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 9)figure Figure 3

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
statistical seismology
seismotectonics
statistical modeling
earthquake forecasting
models evaluation
seismic hazard assessment