Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon
Abstract
Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.
- Authors:
-
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Institute of Arctic and Alpine ResearchUniversity of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USA
- Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences DivisionOak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Natural Resource Ecology LaboratoryColorado State University Fort Collins CO USA
- Earth Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
- School of Forestry and Environmental StudiesYale University New Haven CT USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDA; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); US Department of Commerce
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1580127
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1580128; OSTI ID: 1582363; OSTI ID: 1607195; OSTI ID: 1863824
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AC05‐00OR22725; SC0014374; SC0016364; 2015‐67003‐23485; NNX17AK19G; NA14OAR4320106
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 46 Journal Issue: 24; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; soil carbon; biogeochemistry; models; microbial explicit; carbon cycle; Arctic
Citation Formats
Wieder, William R., Sulman, Benjamin N., Hartman, Melannie D., Koven, Charles D., and Bradford, Mark A. Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL085543.
Wieder, William R., Sulman, Benjamin N., Hartman, Melannie D., Koven, Charles D., & Bradford, Mark A. Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085543
Wieder, William R., Sulman, Benjamin N., Hartman, Melannie D., Koven, Charles D., and Bradford, Mark A. Thu .
"Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085543.
@article{osti_1580127,
title = {Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon},
author = {Wieder, William R. and Sulman, Benjamin N. and Hartman, Melannie D. and Koven, Charles D. and Bradford, Mark A.},
abstractNote = {Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085543},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 24,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 19 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Thu Dec 19 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085543
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