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Title: Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract

During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics.more » The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [4];  [1];  [6]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Systems Research Lab., Boulder, CO (United States); Vibrant Clean Energy, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN (United States)
  6. Vaisala Inc., Seattle, WA (United States)
  7. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN (United States)
  8. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  9. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind Energy Technologies Office (EE-4WE)
OSTI Identifier:
1577984
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1580327
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-142587; NREL/JA-5000-75691
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; EE0007605; AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 17 WIND ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Wind Forecast Improvement Project; WFIP2; parameterization; numerical weather prediction

Citation Formats

Bianco, Laura, Djalalova, Irina V., Wilczak, James M., Olson, Joseph B., Kenyon, Jaymes S., Choukulkar, Aditya, Berg, Larry K., Fernando, Harindra J. S., Grimit, Eric P., Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra, Lundquist, Julie K., Muradyan, Paytsar, Pekour, Mikhail S., Pichugina, Yelena, Stoelinga, Mark T., and Turner, David D. Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019.
Bianco, Laura, Djalalova, Irina V., Wilczak, James M., Olson, Joseph B., Kenyon, Jaymes S., Choukulkar, Aditya, Berg, Larry K., Fernando, Harindra J. S., Grimit, Eric P., Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra, Lundquist, Julie K., Muradyan, Paytsar, Pekour, Mikhail S., Pichugina, Yelena, Stoelinga, Mark T., & Turner, David D. Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019.
Bianco, Laura, Djalalova, Irina V., Wilczak, James M., Olson, Joseph B., Kenyon, Jaymes S., Choukulkar, Aditya, Berg, Larry K., Fernando, Harindra J. S., Grimit, Eric P., Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra, Lundquist, Julie K., Muradyan, Paytsar, Pekour, Mikhail S., Pichugina, Yelena, Stoelinga, Mark T., and Turner, David D. Thu . "Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1577984.
@article{osti_1577984,
title = {Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)},
author = {Bianco, Laura and Djalalova, Irina V. and Wilczak, James M. and Olson, Joseph B. and Kenyon, Jaymes S. and Choukulkar, Aditya and Berg, Larry K. and Fernando, Harindra J. S. and Grimit, Eric P. and Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra and Lundquist, Julie K. and Muradyan, Paytsar and Pekour, Mikhail S. and Pichugina, Yelena and Stoelinga, Mark T. and Turner, David D.},
abstractNote = {During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-4803-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 11,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {11}
}

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