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Title: Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios

Abstract

For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shapemore » of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [3]
  1. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany); Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  2. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany); Univ. of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom)
  3. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin (Germany)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL) - Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)
  5. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  6. Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI (United States)
  7. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom); ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1577103
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10357
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 157; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; negative emission; carbon dioxide removal; scenario; Integrated  Assessment

Citation Formats

Hilaire, Jérôme, Minx, Jan C., Callaghan, Max W., Edmonds, Jae, Luderer, Gunnar, Nemet, Gregory F., Rogelj, Joeri, and del Mar Zamora, Maria. Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4.
Hilaire, Jérôme, Minx, Jan C., Callaghan, Max W., Edmonds, Jae, Luderer, Gunnar, Nemet, Gregory F., Rogelj, Joeri, & del Mar Zamora, Maria. Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4
Hilaire, Jérôme, Minx, Jan C., Callaghan, Max W., Edmonds, Jae, Luderer, Gunnar, Nemet, Gregory F., Rogelj, Joeri, and del Mar Zamora, Maria. Thu . "Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1577103.
@article{osti_1577103,
title = {Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios},
author = {Hilaire, Jérôme and Minx, Jan C. and Callaghan, Max W. and Edmonds, Jae and Luderer, Gunnar and Nemet, Gregory F. and Rogelj, Joeri and del Mar Zamora, Maria},
abstractNote = {For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 2,
volume = 157,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {10}
}

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Open discussion of negative emissions is urgently needed
journal, December 2017

  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hof, Andries F.; van Sluisveld, Mariësse A. E.
  • Nature Energy, Vol. 2, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0055-2

Effectiveness and efficiency of climate change mitigation in a technologically uncertain World
journal, August 2013


Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
journal, May 2018

  • Fuss, Sabine; Lamb, William F.; Callaghan, Max W.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f

Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
journal, May 2014

  • Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Dietrich, Jan Philip
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029

SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2017


The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
journal, January 2017


Fighting global warming by GHG removal: Destroying CFCs and HCFCs in solar-wind power plant hybrids producing renewable energy with no-intermittency
journal, June 2016

  • de_Richter, Renaud K.; Ming, Tingzhen; Caillol, Sylvain
  • International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 49
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.02.027

Fighting global warming by greenhouse gas removal: destroying atmospheric nitrous oxide thanks to synergies between two breakthrough technologies
journal, January 2016

  • Ming, Tingzhen; de_Richter, Renaud; Shen, Sheng
  • Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 23, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11356-016-6103-9

The role of reporting standards in producing robust literature reviews
journal, May 2018


Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics
journal, July 2016


Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets
journal, October 2013


Representing spatial technology diffusion in an energy system optimization model
journal, February 2016


How to spend a dwindling greenhouse gas budget
journal, January 2018

  • Obersteiner, Michael; Bednar, Johannes; Wagner, Fabian
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0045-1

Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
journal, January 2017


Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?
journal, February 2013


The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development
journal, November 2013


The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and the role of direct air capture
journal, August 2017


Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
journal, May 2018

  • Minx, Jan C.; Lamb, William F.; Callaghan, Max W.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b

Transport electrification: A key element for energy system transformation and climate stabilization
journal, October 2013


Direct air capture of CO2 and climate stabilization: A model based assessment
journal, February 2013


Carbon capture and storage: Lessons from a storage potential and localization analysis
journal, February 2017